With three games to go, there isn’t a ton riding on the line for the Toronto Maple Leafs. There’s an outside chance of home-ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs, but that shifted into “easier said than done” territory in the past few days. At this point, it’s mostly just pride and preparation. The Detroit Red Wings, on the other hand, have everything to play for tonight – and you can be sure they’ll show that on the ice. Let’s dive into this Atlantic Division battle that has the potential to be a must-watch.
Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings
The Maple Leafs are noteworthy home favourites, coming in at approximately -180 on the moneyline.
Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs Best Odds
| Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds | -173 @ Pinnacle |
| Red Wings Moneyline Odds | +155 @ Pinnacle |
| Puckline odds | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+141) @ Pinnacle Red Wings +1.5 (-150) @ Bet99 |
| Total | Over 6.5 goals (+104) @ Pinnacle Under 6.5 goals (-106) @ Pinnacle |
| Time/Date | April 13, 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: CBC, Sportsnet Stream: Sportsnet+ (How to watch the NHL in Canada?) |
Betting Toronto Maple Leafs (46-24-9 SU, 33-47 ATS, 42-35-2 o/u)
Going into Thursday, it was understood that the New Jersey Devils could look for revenge for their Tuesday defeat, and that’s exactly what happened. Despite going up 1-0 just eighteen seconds in, the Leafs found themselves trailing by the thirteen-minute mark, and despite having three different leads, they spent fewer than twelve minutes ahead. Timo Meier and Jesper Bratt, as implied in our preview, were the drivers of the journey, with Meier picking up two powerplay goals and an assist and Bratt scoring the eventual game-winner with a little more than a minute and a half to go.
There were a lot of issues in this game, from poor puck movement to an early-season flashback for Ilya Samsonov, who had a rough night. With that said the mood in Toronto was jubilant. But how? Well, Auston Matthews pushed two goals closer to the 70 mark, picking up the 2-1 and 3-3 tallies in the first half of the game to move him up to 68 on the season. Max Domi also jumped rookie Simon Nemec for engaging Matthews in a board battle, which Leafs fans took more positively than anyone else. So despite the loss, fans were satisfied with the flair in the middle.
Betting Detroit Red Wings (37-37-5 SU, 28-56 ATS, 45-33-1 o/u)
The Red Wings, on the other hand, have no time for flair. They’re in an absolute dogfight at the middle of the Eastern Conference, too far away to catch up to Boston, Toronto, Florida, or Tampa Bay, but just close enough in the race that they might be able to battle with the teams in the metropolitan division for the final wildcard spot. Pittsburgh, Washington, and Philadelphia are their biggest rivals in the mix, with all four teams sitting at the 85-86 point smark with 2-3 games to go.
A loss to the Penguins on Thursday, just minutes after the Leafs game ended, didn’t help Detroit’s chances much. But fighting back to force overtime was pivotal, and is one of the reasons this game still has a ton of meaning for them. Being able to upset the Leafs, besides being fun, would keep their hopes of spring hockey alive.
Last Matchup
We’ve seen some wild games in this division rivalry in recent years, but this year has been pretty calm. Their last one was in mid-January, and the Red Wings took it by a 4-2 result. Toronto opened the scoring through Pontus Holmberg and Mitch Marner helped them maintain a one-goal lead going into the third, but three unanswered Detroit goals in the final frame played spoiler for the Scotiabank Arena faithful.
Projected Red Wings and Leafs Lines
| Today’s Toronto Maple Leafs Lines | Today’s Detroit Red Wings Lines |
|---|---|
| Forwards Tyler Bertuzzi – Auston Matthews – Max Domi Bobby McMann – John Tavares – Mitch Marner Nick Robertson – Pontus Holmberg – William Nylander Matthew Knies – David Kampf – Noah Gregor Defence Morgan Rielly – Timothy Liljegren Simon Benoit – Jake McCabe Joel Edmundson – TJ Brodie Starting In Goal Ilya Samsonov 23-7-7, 3.08 GAA, 0.891 SV% | Forwards Alex Debrincat – Dylan Larkin – Lucas Raymond David Perron – JT Compher – Patrick Kane Robby Fabbri – Joe Veleno – Daniel Sprong Zach Aston-Reese – Austin Czarnik – Christian Fischer Defence Ben Chiarot – Moritz Seider Simon Edvinsson – Jeff Petry Olli Maatta – Shayne Gostisbehere Starting In Goal Alex Lyon 28-18-5, 3.03 GAA, 0.906 SV% |
The Leafs have a couple of questionable/game-time decisions in the mix here. Max Domi’s status for Saturday is currently up in the air. His injury is expected to be minor, and more a matter of being able to take advantage of a rest day now instead of later, should they choose to. Timothy Liljegren’s status has been upgraded to questionable, and we could see him back tonight.
Bobby McMann over 2.5 shots
+140
Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs Injury Concerns
The Maple Leafs have one more surprising bit of injury news – Matt Murray is joining the Marlies! The netminder, who has been out the entire season recovering from surgeries, was assigned on a conditioning loan today. It’s highly unlikely that he suits up in the NHL this year, but this is the next step in helping him rehabilitate ahead of next season, wherever he may choose to play it.
The Red Wings have Ville Husso currently on a conditioning stint in Grand Rapids after missing several weeks with a lower-body injury, Michael Rasmussen who has been out with an upper-body injury for the past week and change, and Andrew Copp, who broke his cheekbone earlier in the week and carries an unknown timeline.
NHL Betting Trends
- In the last ten games between the Maple Leafs and Red Wings, Toronto is 7-3. That goes back to October 2021. When looking at the puckline, however, it’s an even 5-5 split, and the total goals line has been split with five overs, four unders, and a push.
- The Maple Leafs are 6-4 in their last ten games, with an identical record against the puck line. They’ve hit the total goals over four times in their last ten games.
- The Red Wings, despite needing the wins, have picked up just three in their last ten. They’re 8-2 against the puck line, but that, unfortunately for them, doesn’t help much in the playoff picture. The total goals over has been hit four times.
NHL Player Prop Trends
- Auston Matthews leads the Maple Leafs with 10 goals in Toronto’s last ten games, along with 52 shots on goal. His 15 points also lead the team. As far as assists go, TJ Brodie is the surprise leader in that regard, serving seven apples.
- Surprisingly cold on the Maple Leafs is William Nylander, who has just a goal and two assists in Toronto’s last ten games. It’s not for a lack of trying, as his 32 shots are second to Matthews during that stretch.
- Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin is their top producer in this home stretch, scoring a team-leading six goals, eleven points, and 41 shots on goal. Alex Debrincat leads in assists with seven.
Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs Predictions
- We have just three more games of Auston Matthews goal watch, and you know dang well that we’re going to use them. The value for an anytime goal today ranges from -130 to -160, with Sports Interaction, BetMGM, and FanDuel being among the -130 club members.
- It’s been seven games since Bobby McMann hit his once-automatic >2.5 shot prop, but I’m bringing it back tonight. He’s still getting to two pretty frequently, and he took four against the Red Wings last time they faced them. You can grab this at +140 on bet365.
- Dylan Larkin is going to have a lot of eyes on him tonight, perhaps more than any other player, as he tries to lead his team to spring hockey for the first time since his rookie season. His best value on an anytime goal is +175 at Fanduel, his best value on a point is -200 at FanDuel, and his best value on clearing his shot line of 3.5 is +124 at DraftKings (if you feel less confident, you can also get over 2.5 on NorthStar Bets at -185).
