Looking for the best home run picks today? Friday’s MLB slate features several hitters in prime spots to go deep thanks to favourable pitching matchups, recent power surges, and hitter-friendly conditions. We’ve identified our top home run picks for July 31, breaking down the MLB odds, key statistics, and matchup advantages that make these sluggers the best value bets to leave the yard.
Kyle Stowers (+325)
Stowers is in the midst of a power surge, swatting homers in three of his last five games.
Additionally, he has solid career numbers in a small sample size against Mets starter Freddy Peralta on Friday night, going 3-for-8 with a pair of doubles and a home run.
Stowers has a .720 slugging percentage and 1.120 OPS over the last seven days and a .251 isolated power value against right-handed pitching this season.
Peralta has coughed up 17 home runs this season and is having a tough year with the Mets, owning a 4.99 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.
Hot and humid conditions are expected at Citi Field, which has a home run park factor of 101 (just above the league average), and light winds will be blowing out to left field at 6 mph, aiding long fly balls.
Stowers to hit a home run
Jeremy Pena (+525)
Like Stowers, Pena is swinging a hot bat right now, belting six of his 12 homers this season over the last nine games.
He’s slashing an incredible .413/.438/.826 with a 1.264 OPS over the last 15 days, and he does have two homers in 21 career at-bats against Rangers starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi, who is projected to take the mound on Friday night.
Pena has a .302 isolated power rating over the last 15 games, and he’s been terrific on his home field this year, featuring a .648 slugging percentage with a 1.050 OPS across 91 at-bats.
This game will be played at hitter-friendly Daikin Park, which has a very favourable home run park factor of 114, ranking as the fifth-best venue in the majors for home runs this season.
