Our Cardinals vs. Blue Jays prediction for Friday night’s series opener revolves around a compelling pitching duel between two of baseball’s hottest starters. Dylan Cease has been dominant throughout July and continues to strengthen his Cy Young case, while Kyle Leahy has quietly put together an impressive stretch of quality outings for St. Louis. With both offences struggling to consistently produce runs, this matchup sets up as a low-scoring battle. Below, we break down our best bet, the latest odds, key player matchups, and the trends that matter before first pitch.
Cardinals vs. Blue Jays prediction
F5 under 4 runs: -115 (best odds @ bet365)
F5 under 4 runs
You won’t find two hotter starting pitchers right now in the majors than Cease and Leahy, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t continue to have success against two lacklustre lineups, particularly on Toronto’s end.
Betting the under on various totals has been a profitable angle on these teams over the last handful of games, and that should be the case again on Friday, at least while these two starting pitchers are in the game before handing the ball over to their respective bullpens.
Toronto is averaging less than four runs per game, while the Cardinals are a little closer to league average at 4.5. However, St. Louis has scored three or fewer runs in each of its last five games.
As always, shop around for the most favourable MLB odds at the best MLB betting sites before locking in any wagers on our Cardinals vs. Blue Jays prediction.
Cardinals vs. Blue Jays odds
| Cardinals moneyline odds | +145 |
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -170 |
| Run line odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+125), Cardinals +1.5 (-150) |
| Game total | Over 7.5 runs (-110), Under 7.5 (-110) |
| Date/time | July 31, 7:07 p.m. ET |
Betting the Cardinals (54-55 SU, 61-48 ATS, 44-60-5 o/u)
The Cardinals were projected to have just 69.5 wins by online sportsbooks entering the season, but they’ve drastically exceeded expectations by playing close to .500 baseball to this point.
Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt are enjoying breakout seasons, and the pitching staff as a whole has performed at a league-average level to help keep the rebuilding team afloat.
The Cardinals find themselves three games back of the final NL playoff spot entering play Friday, so they’ll have some interesting decisions to make ahead of the looming trade deadline in a few days.
Betting the Blue Jays (50-59 SU, 49-60 ATS, 56-52-1 o/u)
The Blue Jays took two of three from the Washington Nationals earlier this week, but it’s likely too little too late to convince the front office to not sell ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline.
Trade rumours are swirling around some of the club’s veteran players, including George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Kevin Gausman, and Shane Bieber, among others, so bettors will want to monitor the news cycle leading up to the game Friday for any potential deals that could immediately impact Toronto’s lineup.
Early injuries across the roster are partially to blame for Toronto’s disappointing season, but the club has also failed to consistently score, averaging just 3.94 runs per game entering action Friday.
Probable starting pitchers
St. Louis: RHP Kyle Leahy (7-4, 3.55 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 7.82 K/9)
Leahy is having an incredible season for the Cardinals and is on a nice run right now, holding the opposition to two runs or less in six straight starts. He owns a sparkling 1.35 ERA across four July starts and held the Reds to two runs over six innings in his last start.
However, his Statcast metrics are far less impressive, as his 5.22 xERA ranks in the 13th percentile, and opponents have an expected batting average of .272, also ranking him in the 13th percentile among qualified pitchers this season.
It should be noted that left-handed batters are torching him this season, collectively recording a .479 slugging percentage and .870 OPS across 194 at-bats.
Toronto: RHP Dylan Cease (7-5, 2.46 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 13.26 K/9)
Cease is in the midst of a simply spectacular season and has the second-shortest odds to win the AL Cy Young Award (+130) behind New York’s Cam Schlittler (-145).
The hard-throwing righty has held the opposition scoreless in three of his last four starts and in four of his last five if you count his All-Star Game appearance. He owns a sparkling 0.90 ERA this month while recording 39 strikeouts over 30 innings.
Cease ranks in the 86th percentile or higher among qualified starting pitchers in xERA, xBA, fastball velocity, average exit velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate this season.
Notable injuries
The following notable players are on the injured list for St. Louis:
- 3B Ramon Urias (elbow)
- P Max Rajcic (elbow)
- P JoJo Romero (appendix)
The following notable players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- OF Jesus Sanchez (ankle)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- OF Addison Barger (elbow)
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Joe Mantiply (knee)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- P Bowden Francis (elbow)
- OF Jonatan Clase (foot)
- P Patrick Corbin (shoulder
Weather
Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 25 C with a mix of sun and clouds on Friday evening in Toronto, so the retractable dome will likely be open. Winds will blow out to centre field at just 8 mph.
Cardinals vs. Blue Jays betting trends
- The under is 6-2 in Toronto’s last eight games.
- The Blue Jays have won six straight games vs. the Cardinals dating back to 2024.
- The under is 5-2 in the Cardinals’ last seven games.
Cardinals vs. Blue Jays player prop trends
- Cease has recorded 18 outs or more in four straight starts and 21 or more in three of those outings. He’s -155 to record over 17.5 outs.
- Leahy has allowed two earned or fewer in six straight outings and is -135 to record under 2.5 earned runs on Friday.
- George Springer and Ernie Clement are both riding five-game hitting streaks into action Friday. Springer is around -225 to extend his streak; Clement is around -235.
