If you’re looking for a Blue Jays vs. Nationals prediction, Tuesday night’s matchup points toward a tightly contested, low-scoring battle in Washington. Toronto turns to former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber, who has looked very sharp recently, while the Nationals counter with breakout right-hander Cade Cavalli, one of the National League’s most consistent starters this season. With both pitchers in strong form, the Blue Jays’ struggling offence and wet weather in the forecast, there are several factors shaping the betting outlook. Below, we break down the latest odds, our best bet, key player props, and everything you need to know before first pitch.
Blue Jays vs. Nationals prediction
Under 8.5 runs: +105 (best odds @ bet365)
Under 8.5 runs
Several factors in play that suggest we should see another low-scoring affair on Tuesday night.
Firstly, both starting pitchers are in fine form right now, with Shane Bieber looking especially exceptional, allowing just one earned run over his last two starts and 13 innings pitched. Cade Cavalli has been solid all season for Washington, and he should have no issues navigating Toronto’s anemic lineup right now.
Both bullpens are also in good shape from a workload perspective, which should allow both managers to mix and match accordingly from an analytics perspective.
Secondly, weather will likely play a factor in this contest, with rain expected through the early portion of the evening. The start of the game could be delayed, and with a 1 p.m. ET start time scheduled for the series finale on Wednesday, you can bet the players will subconsciously be trying to wrap things up as quickly as possible to avoid the game stretching into the early morning hours.
Thirdly, we have the league’s best offence squaring off with the worst in this matchup. Toronto is averaging just 2.3 runs per game over the last 10 games, which should help keep this contest below the total. Washington had a quiet night offensively in the series opener on Monday, managing just two runs against struggling right-hander Max Scherzer and a plethora of Blue Jays relievers, and we should see something similar against a hot pitcher like Bieber in rainy and potentially condensed conditions due to rain.
As always, look for the most favourable MLB odds at the best MLB betting sites before locking in any wagers on our Blue Jays vs. Nationals prediction.
Blue Jays vs. Nationals odds
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | +120 |
| Nationals moneyline odds | -140 |
| Run line odds | Nationals -1.5 (+145), Blue Jays +1.5 (-170) |
| Game total | Over 8.5 runs (-125), Under 8.5 (+105) |
| Date/time | July 28, 6:45 p.m. ET |
Betting the Blue Jays (49-58 SU, 49-58 ATS, 55-51-1 o/u)
It’s do-or-die time for the Blue Jays ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline, so expect some serious urgency from the club on Tuesday night.
The team finds itself five games back of the final AL Wild Card spot, putting the squad in a tough spot in regard to being buyers or sellers in a few days. If Toronto can rack up three or four more wins before the deadline, it might just be enough to convince the front office to hold on to its veterans on expiring contracts. However, a mediocre run over the next few days will almost surely make the Blue Jays sellers.
Scoring runs has been an issue for the Blue Jays all season long, but they’ve been in a real funk recently, scoring just 23 runs total over their last 10 games (2.3 per game average). Toronto is averaging a league-worst 3.92 runs per game on the season after boasting a 5.02 mark last season.
One positive heading into this matchup on Tuesday night for the Blue Jays is that their bullpen is in excellent shape despite six arms working on Monday night. All six of those relievers threw only 17 pitches or fewer, making them all available for duty on Tuesday.
Betting the Nationals (54-53 SU, 64-45 ATS, 58-45-4 o/u)
The league’s best offence was silenced by Max Scherzer and the Blue Jays last night, managing just two runs on eight hits. Washington is averaging a league-best 5.5 runs per game this season while also smashing the most home runs (157) and stealing the most bases (120).
From a pitching perspective, the team has struggled mightily, though, allowing 5.2 runs per game (28th in the majors) while owning a lofty 4.76 team ERA (27th in the majors). The team also owns the worst fielding percentage in the big leagues at .980.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Shane Bieber (2-1, 4.70 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 6.46 K/9)
Bieber appears to be settling in after a lengthy stint on the injured list, making him one of Toronto’s top potential trade chips ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline.
The 2020 Cy Young Award winner, who is on an expiring contract, has twirled back-to-back gems against the Rays and White Sox, holding them to just one run over 13 innings while striking out nine.
Bieber has been particularly tough against left-handed hitters this season, holding them to a .180/.286/.410 slash line with a .696 OPS.
Washington: RHP Cade Cavalli (7-4, 3.58 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 10.33 K/9)
Cavalli is in the midst of a breakout season and is quickly becoming one of Washington’s top starting pitchers.
The 27-year-old throws hard, with his fastball ranking in the 82nd percentile (96.6 mph), and he also excels at keeping inducing ground balls with his sinker and curveball (48.9% ground-ball rate).
Cavalli owns an impressive 3.10 ERA across four starts this month, with his latest gem coming against Colorado, which managed no runs on four hits over six innings against the righty.
Notable injuries
The following notable players are on the injured list for Washington:
- P Connelly Early (elbow)
- P Brad Lord (oblique)
- P Trevor Williams (elbow)
- P Jake Irvin (shoulder)
- P Richard Lovelady (triceps)
- P Josiah Gray (elbow)
The following notable players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- OF Jesus Sanchez (ankle)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- OF Addison Barger (elbow)
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Joe Mantiply (knee)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- P Bowden Francis (elbow)
- OF Jonatan Clase (foot)
- P Patrick Corbin (shoulder
Weather
Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 25 C with a 100% chance of showers around 6 p.m. ET, so don’t be surprised if the start of this game is delayed a few hours. Winds will blow out to right field at 9 mph.
Blue Jays vs. Nationals betting trends
- The Blue Jays have won each of the past four meetings between these teams.
- The under is 5-1 in Toronto’s last six games.
- The under is 6-2 in Washington’s last eight games.
- The Blue Jays have hit the team total under in 14 of their last 19 games.
Blue Jays vs. Nationals player prop trends
- Cavalli has struck out five or more batters in three straight starts and in seven of his last 10. He’s -105 to record over 4.5 strikeouts on Tuesday and is averaging 5.8 strikeouts per start this season.
- Cavalli has allowed two earned runs or less in three straight starts and in six of his last seven. He’s -155 to surrender under 2.5 earned runs.
- CJ Abrams went 0-for-2 with a pair of walks in the series opener on Monday, but he’s been ridiculously hot lately, slashing .465/.489/.1.047 with seven homers and 15 RBIs over the last 15 days. He’s +105 to record over 1.5 total bases.
- George Springer has hit safely in three straight games and eight of his last 10. He’s -210 to extend that streak.
