Auston Matthews Odds Shift As Leafs Centre Chases 70 Goals

With a resounding tap of his stick and a swift flick of the wrist, Auston Matthews clinched another crucial goal, extending the Maple Leafs’ lead to 4-2 against the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday night. This goal not only bolstered the Maple Leafs’ position in the Atlantic Division standings, potentially securing home-ice advantage, but it also brought Matthews’ season tally to 66 goals. With just four goals shy of the monumental 70-mark, all eyes are on Matthews to see if he can surpass this impressive threshold, igniting speculation surrounding Auston Matthews odds and props by some of the top Canadian sportsbooks in the industry.

Beyond being another step up the ladder, the 66th goal does carry some other meaning. Beyond being a further extension of Matthews’ career best, and the Maple Leafs’ franchise record, it’s the most goals scored by a player in the salary cap era (since 2005/06), and the most by any active player, with the previous mark for both being set by Alexander Ovechkin during his explosive 65-goal season in 2007/08. It also gives him a 13-goal lead over second place in the Rocket Richard Trophy race, meaning that barring someone going on the most explosive goal-scoring streak in modern history in the next week, he’ll cruise to victory.

Will Auston Matthews Score 70 Goals?

o69.5 +230
u69.5 -280

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But back to 70. That’s a number that no one has hit in the NHL since an incredible race between Buffalo’s Alexander Mogilny and Winnipeg’s rookie phenom Teemu Selanne who both hit 76 in 1992/93. The season was lightning in a bottle for everyone, with an expanded schedule, fantastically weak expansion teams to prey on, and some form of magic pixie dust in the ice, as neither player got within even 20 goals of that zenith again, with most of their years sitting in the 30-40 range. No one got all that close to those marks from that point on. Pavel Bure, Jaromir Jagr, Mario Lemieux, Alex Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos, Connor McDavid, and David Pastrnak have all been to the 60 club once since, and Matthews has now done it twice. But 70? Lemieux was the closest in 1995/96 and did it in just 70 games, but he didn’t quite get over the hump.

Matthews has four more games to hit the mark with the Maple Leafs this season.

  • April 11th vs. New Jersey: Toronto faces the Devils again Thursday. He’s been dynamite against them his entire career, putting up 16 goals in 17 games against them. This includes goals in both games against them this year, Tuesday night, and on March 26th.
  • April 13th vs. Detroit: Moving to their Saturday opponent, Matthews has 16 goals in 23 games against the Red Wings. They’ve been better at shutting him down over the last two years, keeping him off the board in his last four games against them despite 16 shots on goal.
  • April 16th vs. Florida: The playoff series against the Panthers was tough for Matthews last year, going goalless in all five games and pointless in his final three. He’s chained together some runs against them before, though, including five goals in four games last regular season, and two goals and an assist in a 6-4 win on April 1st.
  • April 17th vs. Tampa Bay: Another playoff foe, Matthews had early-career struggles against the Bolts but has improved in recent years, scoring seven goals in his last eight regular-season games against Tampa, including one against them on April 3rd this year. He had goals in all of the final four games of their playoff series against the Bolts last season.

Overall, there are arguments for why he should be able to light up these games, such as prior history, and well, being Auston Matthews. At the same time, the Devils will have an easy preparation window in a back-to-back situation, and the other three teams are in a dogfight for playoff seeding. The Leafs themselves might want to focus on playing tighter “playoff-style” hockey in the Florida swing as well, which could limit his opportunity.

But it’s hard not to look at Matthews’ run of late and believe in the possibility. Matthews currently has goals in six consecutive games and points in 12, putting up 11 goals, 11 assists, 22 points and 61 shots in that span. That combination shows more than just a player getting bounces, but generating elite volume while still working with his teammates – essentially dominating the offensive zone in all facets. That to me is the best sign of all – not that his stick is hot, but that this play is hot.

This leaves one more question – who’s got the props?

SportsbookOver 69.5 / YesUnder 69.5 / No

Right now, it seems like only two of our most recommended books have a 70-specific market right now, though that could change with a big game Thursday night and additional attention on the chase. Currently, bet365 appears to be the best place to play, both for the longer odds on the over, and the available under for those who aren’t as convinced that it’s going to happen.

If you’re someone who prefers to take it one game at a time, your best bet will be to keep taking advantage of the anytime goals market for Matthews that we’ve made a mainstay in all of our Maple Leafs previews. Last game Betano had the best available odds at -114, which Matthews hit, while FanDuel currently is the first one out of the gate for Thursday’s game pricing him at -120.