March Madness Betting Trends: Underdogs Are 10-10 Straight-Up In Elite Eight Since 2018

The betting underdog bounced back in the Sweet Sixteen after going 1-15 in round two of the 2024 NCAA tournament, winning outright in five of eight games played in week two of the tournament, so far. The top March Madness betting trends headed into the weekend continues to be the outright underdog, which have won half of the games played in the round of the Elite Eight dating back to 2018, with a 10-10 straight-up record.

With betting underdogs putting away some of the top seeds in the tournament, the NCAA Championship odds have shifted drastically. A familiar face sits atop the odds board headed into the Elite Eight, with returning champion UConn lined as -105 favorites to win the entire tournament.

March Madness Bets: Tournament of Unders

The Under in this year’s March Madness has not come through at the rate that was anticipated headed into the tournament, though historical trends are not in favor of this pattern continuing. Dating back to the 2017 NCAA tournament, the Under has cashed at a 56.5% rate from the Elite Eight on, with 26-19 games in that stretch going under the number. This trend can be isolated to the Elite Eight itself, with 12 of the last 20 games in the fourth round of the tournament going Under, dating back to 2018.

Unders in NCAA Basketball Tournament

YTDRecordWin %
Since 202428-3246.4%
Since 202365-5852.8%
Since 2022102-8853.7%
Since 2021142-11455.5%
Updated March 30th, 2024

The betting underdog won 5 of 8 games in the Sweet Sixteen, and is now on an 11-9 straight-up run in the second week of the tournament dating back to last year. The betting underdog has historically been profitable betting trend in the Elite Eight, with the dog winning outright in 10 of the last 20 games played in the Elite Eight, dating back to 2018. A $100 bettor who has backed the dog in every Elite Eight game played in that stretch has earned a total of +$570, a net profit of +$7 per game, win or lose.

In that same stretch of games, the betting underdog managed to cover the spread in 12 games overall, shoring up what has been another historical betting trend in this round of the tournament. Dating all the way back to 2016, the betting underdog has covered the spread in 60% of games played, going 17-10-1 ATS in that stretch.

The Elite Eight has been known to be the point in the tournament where the tide turns towards the underdog. In fact, the Betting underdog has managed to cover the spread in 59% of games played from the Elite Eight on, going 29-19-1 ATS dating back to 2016.

Betting Underdogs in the NCAA Tournament

Since 202420-40+1.59u
Since 202342-85+17.69u
Since 202263-131+32.55u
Since 202187-173+60.48u
Updated March 30th, 2024

March Madness Betting In Canada

Zach Edey, the seven-foot-four center from Toronto, leads the Purdue Boilermakers to their sixth Elite Eight, remaining one of the only high profile Canadian players remaining in the 2024 tournament. Should Edey manage to lead his team to the NCAA championship, he would be just the sixth Canadian to win the title.

If you’re looking to bet the Purdue Boilermakers to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament, check out the best Canadian betting apps available for your top choice in this year’s March Madness.

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