NBA Betting Preview (April 12): Raptors vs. Heat Predictions

The Toronto Raptors find themselves on another losing streak as they prepare to head to South Beach for a pivotal matchup against the Miami Heat.

On the edge of clinching the sixth-worst record in the league, the Raptors are positioned just one defeat away, or alternatively, one victory by the Memphis Grizzlies away, from solidifying this standing. With such a record, Toronto holds a 45.8% probability of retaining their top-six protected first-round pick in the upcoming draft. In a significant twist to their season’s conclusion, the Raptors are facing off against the Heat in the last two games before the regular season draws to a close.

Bet on Raptors vs. Heat

TOR +14.5
MIA -14.5

The Heat are also navigating significant playoff implications, trailing by a single game behind the No. 7 seed (Philadelphia) and two games behind the fifth (Orlando) and sixth seeds (Indiana) in the Eastern Conference. The next two games are important for the Heat; should outcomes align favourably, they could secure home-court advantage in the play-in tournament. In the best-case scenario, a favourable sequence of events could elevate the Heat to either the fifth or sixth seed, allowing them to avoid the play-in tournament altogether. This sets the stage for a high-stakes conclusion to their regular season, with each game carrying substantial implications for their playoff positioning.

Let’s look at the best betting odds for this upcoming matchup:

Raptors vs. Heat best odds

Raptors Moneyline Odds+750 @ NorthStar Bets
Heat Moneyline Odds-909 @ Betano
Over/UnderOver 217.5 points (-110) @ Betano
Under 220.5 points (-132) @ PROLINE +
SpreadHeat -14.5 (-102) @ Betano
Raptors +14 (+102) @ Pinnacle
Time/DateApril 12, 8:00 p.m. ET
TVBroadcast: TSN
Stream: NBA League Pass
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Betting Toronto Raptors (25-55 SU, 35-45 ATS, 40-40 o/u)

In a tightly contested match against the Brooklyn Nets last time out, the Raptors fell short with a final score of 106-102. The Raptors were without key players RJ Barrett, Gary Trent Jr., and Kelly Olynyk, putting additional pressure on the team’s depth. Despite these absences, Immanuel Quickley rose to the occasion, delivering a standout performance. Quickley led the game in scoring with an impressive 32 points, complemented by seven rebounds, nine assists, a steal, and one block, showcasing his all-around game. Additionally, Gradey Dick achieved a personal milestone, setting career highs in points and three-pointers made, with 24 points and six threes. This performance highlighted both his scoring ability and his proficiency from beyond the arc.

In the upcoming Raptors and Heat matchup, Quickley will face a Heat defence that allows the eighth-least points to point guards. This setup suggests a tough night for Quickley in terms of scoring, pushing him to lean on his playmaking abilities to impact the game in other ways.

Ochai Agbaji is set to face a significantly challenging environment against the Heat, which allows the fourth-least points and the sixth-least rebounds to power forwards.

Olynyk confronts a Heat defence that is particularly stingy, allowing the third-least points to centres and the least assists to the position.

Betting Miami Heat (44-36 SU, 39-39-2 ATS, 33-47 o/u)

The Heat faced a tough challenge against Luka Dončić and the Dallas Mavericks, ultimately surrendering to a 111-92 defeat Wednesday. Despite the scoreline, Tyler Herro emerged as a key contributor for the Heat, leading the team with 21 points, seven rebounds, and six assists, displaying his scoring ability and playmaking skills. Kevin Love also made a significant impact, achieving a double-double with 16 points and 11 rebounds, showcasing his veteran presence.

However, it was a difficult night for the Heat’s stars, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, who struggled to find their rhythm against the Mavericks’ defence. Butler managed to score 12 points over 35 minutes, while Adebayo faced challenges in the shooting department, recording eight points on a 3-for-13 shooting performance in 29 minutes.

Herro is positioned to exploit a Raptors defence that has shown a particular generosity towards point guards, allowing the fourth-most points to the position in their last 15 games. Despite the Raptors’ resilience in limiting rebounds to point guards, with the seventh-least allowed, Herro’s adept scoring ability, especially from the perimeter, could find lots of opportunities, enhancing his impact on the game.

Caleb Martin enters a matchup where the Raptors defense ranks third in both points and rebounds allowed to small forwards. This indicates a ripe scenario for Martin to significantly impact the game through scoring and rebounding, exploiting the defensive vulnerabilities the Raptors have shown against players in his position.

Nikola Jovic confronts a Raptors defence that has been the easiest matchup in the league to power forwards, allowing the most points, the fifth-most rebounds, and the fourth-most assists to the position in the last 15 games. Jovic’s matchup is notably favourable, presenting him with a prime opportunity to score, assist, and rebound effectively against this defence.

Lastly, Adebayo is matched against a Raptors defence that has been particularly lenient to centres, conceding the third-most points, the most rebounds, and the fifth-most assists to the position. Adebayo’s versatility and dominance in the paint could see him taking full advantage of this defensive weakness, potentially leading to a comeback performance after an awful display the other day against the Mavericks.

Immanuel Quickley over 2.5 threes made


Raptors vs. Heat injury concerns

  • Scottie Barnes suffered a fracture to the third metacarpal bone of his left hand and is considered out indefinitely.
  • Jakob Poeltl is out indefinitely after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left pinkie finger.
  • Chris Boucher suffered a partial MCL tear in his right knee and is without a timeline for return.
  • Jontay Porter (personal) has been ruled out for the rest of the season.
  • Gary Trent (back) is questionable.
  • Bruce Brown (knee) is questionable.
  • Terry Rozier (neck) is listed as questionable.
  • Duncan Robinson (back) has been ruled out.
  • The over is 7-1 in Miami’s last eight games.
  • The Heat are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.
  • The over is 6-2 in Toronto’s last eight games.
  • Toronto is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games.
  • Quickley has recorded over 2.5 threes in four of his last five games. His best line is -105 @ Sports Interaction to record over 2.5 threes.
  • Trent Jr. has recorded 16 points or more in eight straight games. His best line is -105 @ DraftKings to record over 15.5 points.
  • Herro has snatched at least five rebounds in six straight games. His best line is -122 @ FanDuel to haul in over 4.5 rebounds.

Raptors vs. Heat predictions

  • Heat moneyline; Adebayo 18 or more points; Bam Adebayo 10 or more rebounds: +180 @ Sports Interaction. Miami will be looking to win for seeding implications while Toronto should be looking for a loss to secure the sixth-worst record in the league. Adebayo is in a good spot to hit his overs and should dominate with ease in the Raptors’ weak frontcourt.
  • Over 217.5 total points: -110 @ Betano. With playoff implications on the line for the Heat, their trio of Herro, Butler, and Adebayo will be looking to put the game away by scoring as much as they can. The Raptors will be getting back Barrett, Olynyk, and potentially Trent Jr. from the last game which will massively help their offence.