CFL Week 12 Predictions: Expert ATS Picks And Analysis

Week 12 of the Canadian Football League season offers four games with a familiar betting theme: the favourites look strong, but the most interesting value may be hiding with the underdogs.

The Week 12 schedule begins Thursday night with the Ottawa Redblacks visiting the Montreal Alouettes, followed Friday by the Winnipeg Blue Bombers at the Edmonton Elks. Saturday brings the Hamilton Tiger-Cats to Toronto to face the Argonauts, while the Saskatchewan Roughriders visit the BC Lions on Sunday.

Let’s take a look at each matchup and pick a winner against the spread for each contest.

Ottawa at Montreal (+13.5)

Montreal is the obvious choice to win, but 13.5 points is a lot to give an Ottawa team that has repeatedly shown an ability to stay competitive for stretches.

The Alouettes enter the game at 8-1, while Ottawa remains winless. Montreal has already beaten the Redblacks convincingly this season, winning 34-13 in Ottawa in Week 9. But the rematch comes in Montreal, where the Alouettes have been especially difficult to handle.

Montreal’s offensive firepower is potent with Tyson Philpot and Tyler Snead leading the way, averaging a whopping 35.7 points per game and a league-best 455.7 yards of total offence per contest.

Ottawa also showed last week that it is not simply folding, though. The Redblacks led Winnipeg early and remained within five points late before the Bombers pulled away for a 33-21 victory.

Montreal should win, but the spread demands a different question: Can Ottawa lose by less than two touchdowns? We think, yes.

Pick: Ottawa +13.5.

Winnipeg at Edmonton (-5.5)

This is the toughest call of the week.

Edmonton looked like a team headed in the opposite direction from Winnipeg in Week 11. The Elks dismantled Toronto 42-12, snapping a two-game losing streak, while Winnipeg beat Ottawa 33-21.

The Elks’ defence was particularly impressive against Toronto, and Cody Fajardo provided enough production to keep Edmonton’s offence moving. The victory restored some of the momentum Edmonton had built earlier in the season.

Winnipeg, however, has already shown it can win on the road and has a quarterback situation that gives the Bombers enough mobility and unpredictability to make this uncomfortable for Edmonton. Brady Oliveira remains an important factor, while Bryce Perkins’ ability to make plays with his legs adds another dimension.

Still, Edmonton is 6-1 at home and 6-0 against the spread in those games according to the current matchup data.

That is difficult to ignore.

Pick: Edmonton -5.5.

Hamilton at Toronto (-4.5)

This is our favourite underdog play of the week.

Hamilton’s season looked to be heading nowhere when the Ticats lost three straight. Then quarterback Tre Ford came off the bench against Saskatchewan and changed everything.

Ford sparked a second-half comeback as Hamilton erased a nine-point deficit and beat the Roughriders 26-19. He threw the go-ahead touchdown to Keric Wheatfall, then helped the Ticats close out the victory with a pair of late field goals.

That result matters beyond the standings. Hamilton suddenly has evidence that its offence can manufacture explosive plays when Ford is on the field.

Toronto, meanwhile, is coming off a 42-12 loss in Edmonton in which turnovers became the defining story.

The Argos remain dangerous, particularly at home, but laying 4.5 points against a Hamilton team that just rediscovered its confidence is asking a lot.

The teams also played a one-point game earlier this season, with Hamilton escaping on the final play. The Ticats can clinch the season series with another victory Saturday with the Labour Day Classic looming in a few weeks.

Pick: Hamilton +4.5.

Saskatchewan at BC (-1.5)

The final game of the week may be the best one.

Saskatchewan lost 26-19 in Hamilton last week, but the Riders remain one of the CFL’s better teams. BC, meanwhile, has won three straight, including a 30-26 comeback victory over Calgary last week.

The Lions have plenty of momentum. Nathan Rourke continues to make plays, and BC’s second-half performance in Calgary demonstrated its ability to respond when things go sideways.

But Saskatchewan has already beaten BC this season, winning 31-27 in Week 2. The Riders also have the personnel to pressure Rourke and force the Lions into a more physical game than they would prefer.

The injury situation bears watching, particularly with Saskatchewan’s receiving corps, but a 1.5-point spread essentially turns this into a pick’em.

We’ll take the points with the road team.

Pick: Saskatchewan +1.5.