If you’re looking for the best home run picks for Monday’s MLB slate, there are several sluggers in favourable spots worth targeting. From hitter-friendly ballparks and advantageous pitcher matchups to recent power numbers and underlying Statcast metrics, the data points toward a few bats with legitimate home run upside.
Shohei Ohtani stands out in a particularly appealing matchup at Coors Field, while Matt Olson enters Monday’s action swinging a hot bat and draws a pitcher he has already had success against in a small sample size. Here’s a closer look at the top MLB home run predictions and MLB odds for August 17, 2026.
Shohei Ohtani (+180)
Ohtani is always a popular home run bet on a daily basis, but there’s data that suggests he’s very likely to go deep more than usual on Monday night in the high altitude at Coors Field in Colorado, which features a ballpark factor of 109 for home runs this season to rank as one of the most hitter-friendly venues for power hitters.
Colorado will be sending right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano to the mound on Monday night, and Ohtani has absolutely raked him historically, blasting three homers in eight previous at-bats. Sugano has surrendered a whopping 24 home runs this season, the ninth most in the majors, while ranking in just the first percentile in xERA (6.93) and opponents’ xBA (.309). Opponents are also barreling him up 13.7% of the time while enjoying a 43.4% hard-hit rate.
Ohtani, who has already crushed 27 home runs this season, ranks in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity (93.5 mph) and the 96th percentile in barrel rate (16.4%). His 0.251 isolated power value is the 12th best in baseball.
The Dodgers slugger has seven home runs in 24 career games at Coors Field, slashing an incredible .376/.442/.720 at the venue.
Ohtani to hit a home run
Matt Olson (+320)
Olson is in a good position to do some damage at Target Field in Minnesota on Monday night.
The Braves first baseman is second in the majors with 36 blasts this season, and he’s a perfect 2-for-2 with a home run and five RBIs in his career against Twins right-hander Bailey Ober, who will be taking the mound for Minnesota in this contest. Ober has surrendered 17 homers this season, including 12 to left-handed batters who are slugging a combined .475 off of him.
Olson has already belted seven home runs in August over 52 at-bats and is slugging .731 for the month. He also ranks fourth in the majors in isolated power value (0.287) while also ranking in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity (92.5 mph) and the 95th percentile in barrel rate (15.9%).
Target Field isn’t a great venue for home runs with a park factor of 93 for homers, but weather forecasts are calling for warm temperatures with light winds blowing out to left field at 8 mph, which should help carry the ball to offset the deep dimensions of the park.
