In this article, we’ll outline our best Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens prediction for Game 4, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
After falling flat in the series opener, the Canadiens have responded with a pair of convincing wins, and the Sabres’ head coach has responded with numerous lineup changes ahead of Game 4 which we will break down in this article. A Sabres win in Game 4 would entirely shift the narrative surrounding this series, but the market is high on Montreal’s chances of staking a 3-1 series lead, as it is currently the largest favourite it has been since Game 78 of the regular season.
After losing our pick on over 5.5 goals in Game 2, our picks from Canadiens articles this postseason are now 6-1 and +8.39 units. We will try to keep it rolling with a player prop coming in at +105.
Canadiens vs Sabres Game 4 Prediction
Alex Tuch Over 2.5 Shots on Goal +105 (Play to -105)
Tuch over 2.5 SOG
Alex Tuch was highly critical of his performance in Game 3, calling attention to his horrid defensive play in particular. He noted the need for the team to elevate its compete level in Game 4, and will likely be motivated to set the tone in this matchup.
While Tuch struggled defensively in Game 3, he did still generate four shots on goal from six attempts on a night where the Sabres as a whole failed to generate much offensive zone time, particularly prior to score effects taking hold. He’s generated 11 shots from 20 attempts in the series and should remain highly involved playing on the top line and top power-play unit.
Tage Thompson does appear to be dealing with a nagging injury, which is a concern here, but it would make sense for head coach Lindy Ruff to look to use his top line in a highly offensive role Tuesday and lean on the third line of Josh Norris, Zach Benson, and Josh Doan, as well as the fourth line led by Ryan McLeod, to handle more defensive zone starts and minutes against the Canadiens’ top line.
Based on his usage and shot attempt volume in this series, a price of +105 backing Tuch to manage three shots on goal for a third consecutive matchup looks shrewd.
Sabres vs. Canadiens Odds
| Sabres moneyline odds | +125 |
| Canadiens moneyline odds | -150 |
| Puck Line odds | Sabres +1.5 (-210), Canadiens -1.5 (+175) |
| Series odds | Sabres (+200), Canadiens (-245) |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-125), Under 6 (+105) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Buffalo Sabres
Head coach Lindy Ruff is seemingly opting to make several lineup changes following another convincing loss in Game 3, with the most notable being a change from Alex Lyon back to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in goal.
Luukkonen struggled in Round 1 versus the Boston Bruins, as he played to a -2.5 GSAx rating and .825 save percentage. In the regular season, Luukkonen played to a .909 save percentage and +10.5 GSAx rating, which suggests it is reasonable for Ruff to turn back to the starter that was viewed as the team’s top option prior to a pair of poor starts.
It has been confirmed that Luke Schenn and Konsta Helenius will draw in for the Sabres on the back end. It’s a little unclear if that will mean the Sabres will go with seven defenders or not, but the majority of ex-players that have touched on the subject of seven defenders have always said that it makes it tough to get into a rhythm.
Schenn brings a boatload of experience and a physical edge, but his best days are long gone, and he offers a severe lack of foot speed, which is a notable concern based on how Games 2 and 3 of this series played out.
As we touched on entering the series, the Canadiens won the highest percentage of puck battles of any team in Round 1. Their superior speed and ability to get inside position on loose pucks were very prevalent in Game 3, and when the Sabres talk about needing to elevate their compete level, that will surely be part of the conversation.
Buffalo has played to a 42.84% expected goal share in the first three games of this series and allowed 4.28 xGA/60. It fared well defensively in Round 1 versus the Bruins, but it seemed fair to speculate if that had a lot to do with the Bruins’ lack of offensive depth, and so far that take seems to be coming to fruition.
Betting Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens fell flat in the first game of the series, but it did not feel like a performance that brought panic or legitimate concern into the locker room. They righted the ship with very well-rounded performances in Games 2 and 3, which were probably their two best performances of the postseason from an offensive perspective.
Their bottom-six continues to greatly outperform expectations this postseason, as after clearly providing an edge last round versus the Lightning, they have chipped in plenty of offence in this series. At even strength, the combination of Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky continues to offer sub-par results, but that is again proving to be a livable concern for the Canadiens given the way the other three units are performing in the series.
Jakub Dobes is currently the eighth favourite to win the Conn Smythe and just the second player listed on the odds board that is not from either the Carolina Hurricanes or Colorado Avalanche. Dobes has played to a +6.3 GSAx and .918 save percentage this postseason, and will likely need to be a huge story next round if the Canadiens are to sneak past the Hurricanes.
Dobes to win the Conn Smythe Trophy
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