The Colorado Avalanche and Edmonton Oilers will face off in a potential Western Conference final preview Monday evening. Though this is a meaningless game for the Avalanche on paper, it could potentially be a meaningful matchup in helping to settle the hotly contested races for the Hart and Norris trophies, whether that should be the case or not. Our recommended three-leg Avalanche vs. Oilers same game parlay prices out at +280 at the time of writing, prior to bet365‘s 30% same-game parlay boost available for Monday’s NHL card, and targets three superstars fighting to take home individual hardware this season.
It’s important to keep your eyes out for updates on any announcements regarding Colorado’s lineup as we get closer to puck drop, and if you are planning to bet on the Avs in this exciting matchup, wait until puck drop to lock in the current price of -125.
Bet365 is also offering a superboost on Connor McDavid to record two points (boosted to +150), which we will also touch on.
- Leg 1: Connor McDavid to Record Over 1.5 Points (-120 as a straight, *SuperBoost to +150)
- Leg 2: Evan Bouchard Over 0.5 Points (-210 as a straight)
- Legs 4 and 5: Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith Over 0.5 Points Each (-115 as a two-leg parlay)
Nick’s Avs/Oilers SGP
Leg 1: Connor McDavid to Record Over 1.5 Points (-120 as a straight, *SB* to +150)
Our first leg is also being offered as a superboost by bet365, boosted from its regular price of -120 to +150. This is a good straight bet for Monday’s matchup but we’re also including it in our parlay due to the outstanding value on the prop.
There are some Hart Trophy narratives at play in this matchup, with McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon surely both eager to make some convincing final arguments. The current betting odds suggest that MacKinnon has a 61% chance of winning the Hart, while McDavid has a 37% chance of winning.
While McDavid would obviously love to win the Hart once again, he should remain more motivated by the close race for the Pacific Division title, which the Oilers are firmly entrenched in.
A huge part of McDavid’s case for the Hart revolves around the way that he has performed down the stretch with Leon Draisaitl sidelined, as since the Olympic break he has racked up 37 points in 22 games to help ensure the Oilers did not miss the postseason.
Colorado is obviously far better than average as a team defensively, but McDavid was able to record a goal and assist when these sides met on March 10th in Colorado. Though it seems as though the Avs will play their top stars one more time in this matchup, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a few regulars ultimately sit given the meaningless nature of the game.
The -120 is a slightly better price than we have seen for McDavid to record two points recently, and given that they may not necessarily be facing the Avs at their absolute best in this spot, it presents as a very livable number given the incredible form we have seen from McDavid of late.
Leg 2: Evan Bouchard to Record Over 0.5 Points (-210 as a straight)
Bouchard and McDavid continue to work extremely well together, as none of the Oilers defenders do a remotely comparable job of helping maximize McDavid’s absurd offensive skillset. You could rightfully argue that puts a huge hole in Bouchard’s case for the Norris, but either way, Bouchard’s offensive play has been absolutely fantastic for the vast majority of the season and he does deserve plenty of credit.
Bouchard has put up 63 points over the last 50 games and has recorded at least one point in 76% of those games. He’s obviously heavily juiced to record at least one point in being priced at -210, but a fairly huge sample size of Bouchard’s production suggests he is still far more likely to record a point than that number suggests.
A price of -210 for Bouchard to record a point looks particularly livable in a matchup where we are already betting on McDavid to record over 1.5 points. We’ve leaned on this stack consistently in our Oilers same game parlays in the second half, and to my recollection, the Bouchard leg has never missed in a game where McDavid recorded two points.
That’s not particularly surprising, given that out of McDavid’s 133 total points, Evan Bouchard has factored in on the same goal 69 times.
Leg 3: Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-140 as a straight)
Though the players would never admit that individual awards matter, they certainly do, and MacKinnon undoubtedly has looked motivated to hang for his first Rocket Richard Trophy of late.
The Stanley Cup is obviously more important to MacKinnon and the team, though, and allowing MacKinnon to play in this matchup but rest for Game 82 seems to be a logical outcome for the remaining games and strikes a happy medium in terms of rest vs. rust.
MacKinnon has poured 19 attempts on goal over the previous two games and recorded 12 shots on goal where it counts. The Avs will be looking to keep their game sharp ahead of the postseason in this strong tune-up spot, but the team’s top stars will likely still cheat in some regards to ensure MacKinnon gets plenty of chances on goal.
One final note: if the Avs’ are up a goal late, this sets up as a smash spot to try and back MacKinnon to score the last goal, with live numbers likely in the +500 range. They aren’t playing for anything, so they can afford to really cheat to get their guy a potential Rocket-winning goal.
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