UFC 300 Odds, Predictions: Alex Pereira Favoured To Retain Light Heavyweight Title

The wait is finally over! UFC 300 is set to go down this Saturday in Las Vegas and mixed martial arts bettors are salivating over the loaded card to commemorate the historic occasion. This event will serve as a celebration of sorts, showcasing just how far the company has come over the last three decades. It’ll feature a five-fight main card that is already whetting the appetites of fight fans everywhere.

It’s been over 30 years since UFC 1 took place at the now-demolished McNichols Sports Arena in Denver, CO. UFC promoters were initially forced to run advertisements in MMA magazines to convince fighters to participate. Since then, Dana White — who bought the UFC in 2001 for just $2 million — has successfully taken the UFC to the top of the sports world and transformed it into a brand worth over $12 billion.

Alex Pereira to win fight vs. Jamahal Hill


Let’s preview these fights and dig out the best odds availalbe for each bout at UFC 300.

Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage

Best odds on Nickal to win fight: -1500 @ Bet99
Best odds on Brundage to win fight: +1200 @ Caesars

After your first glance at the betting odds, you might ask yourself why this fight is on the main card at UFC 300?

Bo Nickal is 5-0 since making his UFC debut in August 2022, and he’s expected to make short work of Cody Brundage, who is 10-5 with losses in three of his last five matches.

There is, however, quite a bit of buzz surrounding Nickal, as the three-time NCAA Division I National Wrestling champion is working his way up the ranks in the UFC middleweight division. If nothing else, this fight should provide anyone who isn’t familiar with him yet with a proper introduction to the former Penn State star wrestler.

The problem, of course, is that with odds like this, there won’t be much money to be made by simply plopping down a wager on Nickal. Instead, you’ll need to try to predict how Nickal will beat Brundage, and it might be tricky when you consider Nickal has won three of his UFC fights by submission and two by KO.

Both of Brundage’s last two fights have ended in dramatic fashion, with him winning a September 2023 matchup against Jacob Malkoun by disqualification in the first round and following it up with a knockout victory over Zach Reese in the first round of their December 2023 fight. We expect another short fight for Brundage, but this time, we anticipate Nickal going on the attack immediately and using his wrestling skills to get Brundage to submit within the first two rounds.

Prediction: Nickal by submission (-115 @ Bet99).

Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan

Best odds on Oliveira to win fight: +185 @ DraftKings
Best odds on Tsarukyan to win fight: -200 @ Betano

While the Nickal/Brundage fight at UFC 300 likely won’t last long, the matchup between Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan could go the distance. Both fighters are excellent grapplers and that could turn their fight into a lengthy chess match.

That being said, there is also a decent chance one of these fighters could capitalize on the other making a mistake and bring their fight to an abrupt ending. Tsarukyan has won his last two fights — against Joaquim Silva in June 2023 and against Beneil Dariush in December 2023 — by knockout, while Oliveira has forced the likes of Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier to submit over his last few fights.

One thing to watch out for will be Oliveira’s ability to get Tsarukyan on the ground and wrestle with him since it could be the recipe for his success. Tsarukyan’s last loss came in June 2022 to Mateusz Gamrot, who was able to get the best of him by wrestling. If Oliveira can do the same, he could pull off a minor upset here and avoid losing for the second time in three fights.

There is a reason why Tsarukyan is favoured in this fight, as he’s the more powerful fighter and could potentially score a KO against Oliveira. But Oliveira may be able to use his height and reach advantages to seize control from Tsarukyan and earn a hard-fought victory.

Prediction: Oliveira by submission (+500 @ DraftKings).

Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway

Best odds on Gaethje to win fight: -152 @ Pinnacle
Best odds on Holloway to win fight: +150 @ PROLINE +

The “BMF” title that has been passed around in the UFC over the past five years is an incredible example of what makes the company so special. Nate Diaz essentially created this “BMF” title (the “BMF” stands for ”baddest mother——”) following his victory against Anthony Pettis at UFC 241 in August 2019, and guys have been trying to get their hands on it ever since. Justin Gaethje currently holds it after his second-round KO of Dustin Poirier at UFC 291 in July 2023.

Despite the betting odds being against him, Max Holloway has a decent chance to score the upset here. He has earned a reputation for throwing accurate punches at a high volume, and if he can do this against Gaethje, Holloway could wear him down and make this fight go the distance. That would give him a decided advantage over Gaethje, who is likely to use his feet to try to knock Holloway out.

The great news for fight fans is that, no matter who wins this match, it’s expected to be exciting. It could go down as the fight of the night at UFC 300. If you appreciate watching fighters trying to inflict as much pain as they possibly can, this should be the fight for you, as it’ll live up to its “BMF” billing.

But ultimately, it feels like this fight could be a toss-up, so wagering on Holloway could provide some value. Unless Gaethje can catch Holloway with a swift kick, we’re predicting Holloway will drag this fight out and use his precision and power to become the latest fighter to get his paws on the “BMF” title.

Prediction: Holloway by split decision (+240 @ bet365).

Max Holloway to win fight by split decision


Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan

Best odds on Weili to win fight: -450 @ bet365
Best odds on Xiaonan to win fight: +380 @ Sports Interaction

Regardless of what happens during their UFC 300 fight, Zhang Weili and Yan Xiaonan will make history the second they step into the Octagon together. It’s the first time in UFC history that Chinese-born athletes will fight with a title on the line, as Xiaonan has her sights set on taking the UFC Women’s Strawweight title from Weili.

Based on this fight’s betting odds, it doesn’t appear oddsmakers are giving Xiaonan much of a chance. The thought is that Weili will overpower her with punches and use her superior wrestling skills to slow Xiaonan down. But Xiaonan has shown impressive speed during her last few fights, and if she gets the chance to showcase it against Weili, things could get interesting.

Another aspect that will add intrigue to this fight is its cultural importance. Weili and Xiaonan will both enter the Octagon with a little extra pep in their steps because of the circumstances, but it’s Xiaonan who is expected to have a slight edge in this department since she is such a big underdog in the fight. She’ll no doubt have a chip on her shoulder and feel like she has something to prove to her country, and it could be the difference in this match.

Still, it’s hard to overlook what Weili has been able to do over the last few years. She has won the UFC Women’s Strawweight title on two separate occasions, and it doesn’t look like she’s ready to give it up again just yet. She should be able to overcome the nerves that will no doubt set in before facing Xiaonan and defend her title.

Prediction: Weili by unanimous decision: +165 @ bet365.

Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill

Best odds on Pereira to win fight: -125 @ Betway
Best odds on Hill to win fight: +125 @ Betano

Make no mistake about it: Jamahal Hill, a.k.a. “Sweet Dreams,” might be able to catch the current UFC Light Heavyweight champion Alex Pereira with one punch that knocks him out. He has the power to claim a KO victory over Pereira to take his belt. It’s a big part of the reason why Hill is only a slight underdog to Pereira and why the betting public seems to be backing him already.

There are a few things going against Hill, though, that make us question the betting odds for this fight in the first place. For instance, it hasn’t even been a full year since he ruptured his Achilles tendon and was forced to vacate the UFC Light Heavyweight title. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him come out sluggish against Pereira since he’s still trying to get back into fighting shape.

Hill also wasn’t all that impressive in the fights that took place right before his Achilles injury. While he beat an aging Glover Teixeira at UFC 283 in January 2023 to retain his UFC Light Heavyweight title, he had to win that fight by unanimous decision. It also took him four rounds to defeat Thiago Santos during his final UFC match in August 2022, which makes us believe he might not be prepared for the challenges Pereira will present.

The only real knock against Pereira in recent years is that he has tired out too quickly in some of his fights, but that shouldn’t be an issue here due to Hill’s conditioning. Pereira will also be coming into this fight riding the momentum of his TKO victory against Jiří Procházka at UFC 295 in November 2023. It could make this match less dramatic than people may be anticipating.

Prediction: Pereira by KO (+110 @ Betway).