Betting Market Shifts Following Panthers’ Game 3 Win In Stanley Cup Final

Leon Draisaitl #29 of the Edmonton Oilers skates against Matthew Tkachuk #19 of the Florida Panthers in Game Three of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final at Rogers Place on June 13, 2024, in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

The Edmonton Oilers found their firepower in Game 3, scoring three goals, but it was too little too late as the Florida Panthers had already scored four. Florida is now one win away from claiming its first Stanley Cup championship in franchise history. The Panthers can become the first team to complete a sweep in the Cup Final since the 1998 Detroit Red Wings with a win in Game 4 on Saturday.

Betting Market Shifts Following Loss

Edmonton entered Game 3 as a -139 money favourite at Pinnacle Sports, but the betting market has shifted, as the Oilers’ have -120 odds heading into Game 4. The Panthers have now been favoured in 17 of 20 games this postseason, and it appears that Game 3 was a one off, with Florida’s moneyline reaching as high as +130 at some online sportsbooks

Meanwhile, Sports Interaction now lists the Panthers as -2000 series favourites. Edmonton’s odds of overcoming a 0-3 series deficit are listed at 11/1. Based on the odds, the Oilers are further away from a Stanley Cup than they were preseason (10/1). Canada Sports Betting’s NHL model gives the Oilers a five percent chance of winning four games in a row. That suggests Edmonton’s odds should be around 19/1.

Bet on Panthers vs. Oilers GM 4

FLA +105
EDM -125

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Bobrovsky Cements MVP Status

Sergei Bobrovsky is now a -500 favourite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as the most valuable player in the NHL playoffs following his 32-save performance in Game 3. The veteran goaltender now has a 1.33 goals-against average and a .953 save percentage in the Cup Final. Bobrovsky could become just the second goaltender to win the award in the last 10 seasons.

Aleksander Barkov has the second-best odds (4/1) at Sports Interaction. The Panthers’ captain was questionable to play in Game 3 after being on the receiving end of an elbow to the head from Oilers’ forward Leon Draisaitl in Game 2. However, not only did Barkov play, but he scored the eventual game-winner.

The Conn Smythe Trophy has been awarded to centres 19 times, goaltenders 17 times, and wingers 10 times as of 2023.

No Options For McDavid

The Panthers can live with the fact that the Oilers are going to control the play when Connor McDavid is on the ice, because they have taken away his options at 5-on-5. Zach Hyman, who has made a living in front of the net, doesn’t have a single high-danger chance in the series. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has attempted just four shots at 5-on-5, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Florida’s penalty kill has also made it difficult on McDavid. Edmonton’s power play generated at least 12.4 expected goals (per 60 minutes) in each of the three previous rounds, but the Oilers have only generated 2.11 expected goals in 21:12 with the man advantage in the Cup Final, which works out to 5.97 per 60. Edmonton is now 0-10 on the power play in the series.

Connor McDavid under 1.5 points in Game 4


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More Saves From Skinner

It was difficult to point the finger and blame goaltender Stuart Skinner for the Oilers being down 0-2 given that Edmonton scored one goal in Games 1 and 2. However, Edmonton needed more saves in the second period and the 25-year-old was not up to the challenge. The Oilers looked to be in control until the Panthers scored three goals in a span of 6:19 in the middle frame. None of which was worth more than 0.2 expected goals, according to Evolving Hockey

Skinner’s .868 save percentage against Florida in this series is the sixth-worst mark of any goaltender who has played at least three games in a Cup Final. Per Evolving Hockey, Skinner has allowed 1.73 goals above expected while Bobrovsky has saved the Panthers 5.29 goals more than an average goaltender would have if they had faced the same shots. Skinner gave Edmonton a chance to win the first two games, but he just hasn’t been able to give the Oilers any kind of lift.