NHL Betting Preview (May 2): Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Game 6 Predictions

Brad Marchand #63 of the Boston Bruins skates against William Nylander #88 and John Tavares #91 of the Toronto Maple Leafs during the first period in Game Four of the First Round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena on April 27, 2024 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Leafs predictions)

After snatching victory from the jaws of defeat on Tuesday night, the Toronto Maple Leafs get another opportunity to prolong their season on Thursday. With a return to home ice and a seed of doubt planted into the Boston Bruins, both teams are all set for Game 6 action at Scotiabank Arena. Let’s dive into what’s at stake!

Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Bruins GM 6

TOR -108
BOS -102

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The Maple Leafs are somewhere around evenly matched at home tonight, coming in between -107 and -115 on the moneyline.

Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Best Odds

Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds-107 @ Pinnacle
Bruins Moneyline Odds-102 @ Betano
Puckline oddsMaple Leafs -1.5 (+236) @ Pinnacle
Maple Leafs +1.5 (-303) @ Betano
Bruins -1.5 (+220) @ theScore Bet
Bruins +1.5 (-270) @ bet365
Series oddsMaple Leafs +300, Bruins -380 @ Bet365
Total Over 5.5 goals (-110) @ Pinnacle
Under 5.5 goals (+100) @ Sports Interaction
Time/DateMay 2, 8:00 p.m. ET
TVBroadcast: CBC, Sportsnet, TVA Sports (French)
Stream: Sportsnet+
(How to watch the NHL in Canada?)

Last Matchup

The Maple Leafs pulled ahead early in this one with a boxscore line that hasn’t been seen in a Toronto spring in nearly two decades: “McCabe from Domi”. Instead of Bryan and Tie, this one was Max and Jake. A faceoff win from Domi was fished out by Mitch Marner and a point shot from McCabe dodged traffic and sailed past Jeremy Swayman to give Toronto an early lead.

While the Bruins responded eight minutes later by taking advantage of a bad Simon Benoit clearing attempt and a worse bounce, scoring dried up from this point on. That didn’t leave the game without entertainment, with both teams getting their share of chances and plenty of skirmishes, two of which saw Brad Marchand finally get his first two penalties of the series. But ultimately, none of these moments included goals, so the game went to overtime.

After 15 minutes of nervous anticipation, it only took two and a half for the night to wrap up. A surprisingly nice breakout pass from Ilya Lyubushkin was followed by a great drive to the net from John Tavares, and while his effort hit the side of the net, it created just enough commotion for Matthew Knies to fish out and bury the game-winner, sending the series back to Toronto.

Betting Toronto Maple Leafs (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 1-3-1 o/u)

Given the disappointment of Game 4 and the absence of Auston Matthews, the Maple Leafs played as well as just about anyone could’ve hoped for on Tuesday. It would’ve been easy for the group to roll over and let this era come to an end, but they instead played one of their most complete games of the series.

Of course, some obvious issues still remain. The team still needed 62 minutes to score two goals, the power play is now less effective at scoring on a rate basis than their already unimpressive results at 5-on-5, and there were a few times when the teams’ top playmakers spent too much time looking for passes rather than taking the shots themselves. But there weren’t many stretches in this game where Boston felt like the team in the driver’s seat. Execution must be solved to get these last two wins in the series and keep the season going, but not cheating on effort was crucial, particularly with morale in town so low.

Betting Boston Bruins (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 1-3-1 o/u)

Will the Seeds of Doubt seep into the Bruins from here? That’s going to be the question until they get a win because, at this moment, there’s just enough of an echo to feel like the ghosts of collapses past. At this time last year, the Bruins were also up 3-1 against their Atlantic Division opponent and also lost Game 5 in overtime after having opportunities to close it out. The Florida Panthers went on to hang seven goals on them at home in Game 6 and beat them in overtime in Game 7.

On the flip side, the Bruins have also conceded 3-1 leads to Toronto twice in the past 11 years only to close out the series, so they could once again just be lulling the Leafs into a false sense of hope.

Projected Bruins and Leafs Lines

Today’s Toronto Maple Leafs LinesToday’s Boston Bruins Lines
Tyler Bertuzzi – Max Domi – Mitch Marner
Matthew Knies – John Tavares – William Nylander
Calle Jarnkrok – Pontus Holmberg – Nick Robertson
Connor Dewar – David Kampf – Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly – Ilya Lyubushkin
Simon Benoit – Jake McCabe
Joel Edmundson – TJ Brodie

Starting In Goal
Joseph Woll
PO: 1-0-0, 0.75 GAA, 0.970 SV%
RS: 12-11-1, 2.94 GAA, 0.907 SV%
Jake Debrusk – Pavel Zacha – David Pastrnak
Brad Marchand – Charlie Coyle – Morgan Geekie
James Van Riemsdyk – Trent Frederic – Danon Heinen
Justin Brazeau – Jesper Boqvist – Pat Maroon

Mason Lohrei – Charlie McAvoy
Hampus Lindholm – Brandon Carlo
Matt Grzelcyk – Parker Wotherspoon

Starting In Goal
Jeremy Swayman
PO: 3-0-1, 1.49 GAA, 0.952 SV%
RS: 25-10-8, 2.53 GAA, 0.916 SV%

I wouldn’t expect an awful amount of change on either front tonight. Auston Matthews returning to the Leafs would be the biggest potential shakeup, and he remains doubtful to play. The game was tight enough that both teams should feel reasonably confident in their groups. Similar can be said for the netminders, who were among the best players on the ice in both directions.

William Nylander over 3.5 shots on goal


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Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Injury Concerns

The Maple Leafs are operating under the assumption that Auston Matthews will be out. While specifics are minimal, more has come out in recent days implying that his illness is not the only thing weighing him down, with an injury potentially also being in the mix. It’s possible we see him push to come back into the lineup, but don’t count on it right now.

The Bruins don’t appear to have any new injuries or injury updates.

  • The Bruins are 8-2 in their last 10 games against the Maple Leafs, going back to April 2023. The two Toronto wins came in Games 2 and 5 of this series. Boston has the 6-4 puckline edge in those games and the over on total goals hit in seven of them, falling under twice and pushing once.
  • The Maple Leafs are just 3-7 in their last 10 games, both straight-up and against the puckline. They’ve cleared the total goals line six times. Most alarmingly, they’ve lost four in a row at home, including two in this series.
  • The Bruins are 5-5 in their last 10, going 4-6 against the puckline and hitting just two overs on total goals. Conversely to Toronto, they’ve been road warriors of late, going 4-1 straight-up and against the puckline in their last five games.
  • With Auston Matthews out, Mitch Marner has been Toronto’s most productive forward over their last 10 games, with a team-leading eight assists and 10 points.
  • Leading the active Leafs in goals and shots in their last 10 games is John Tavares, with six and 40, respectively. The captain has picked a good time for his stick to start to sizzle, though they could use even more tonight.
  • Brad Marchand leads the Bruins with four goals (shared with Jake Debrusk), six assists (shared with David Pastrnak) and 10 points over their last 10. Pastrnak has the team lead in shots with 34.

Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Predictions

  • The Maple Leafs need this to be a big night from William Nylander. It’s touchy to say given the nature of his absence to start the series, but he seems to have his feet under him now and while he made several great plays on Tuesday, none of them turned into points. Having already wrapped up the regular season with a bit of a slump, this is where they’ll need him most. Sports Interaction has the best deal on him clearing his shot prop of 3.5 at -105. If you’d prefer to take him to score, Betano has the best value at +147.
  • When Boston got caught in this situation last year, Brad Marchand responded with a four-assist Game Six. It wasn’t enough, but he didn’t fold immediately, and after a little bit of humbling on Tuesday, I don’t expect him to tonight either. Your best value on a single point will be on FanDuel at -174.
  • In a case of “hope I’m wrong, prepare to be right”, I originally took the Bruins to win this series in six games and will stick to it. They know from last year that they can’t sit back and let the series bleed out, they’ve found ways to win more often than not against Toronto, the Leafs have been lacklustre at home, and they even have the Narrative Arc of this being commentator Jack Edwards’ last call. The Bruins moneyline seems like a good call at -102 on Betano, even if deep down, I hope it doesn’t work out for anyone.

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