The Edmonton Oilers are massive favorites to earn a win, which would secure a second-place finish in the Pacific Division Thursday, as they host the Vancouver Canucks. A regulation loss would leave a somewhat plausible chance of Edmonton facing the Colorado Avalanche in Round 1 of the playoffs, so it should be well motivated to not look past this soft matchup. Our long shot three-leg parlay for Canucks vs. Oilers prices out at +1500 at the time of writing, prior to bet365‘s 30% same-game parlay boost available for Thursday’s NHL card, and targets Connor McDavid hitting the 50-goal plateau.
- Legs 1 and 2: Connor McDavid, multi-goal scorer and last goal scorer (+1100 as a two-leg parlay)
- Leg 2: Edmonton Oilers -1.5 (-125 as a straight bet)
Nick’s Canucks/Oilers SGP
Legs 1 and 2: Connor McDavid, Multi-goal scorer and Last goal scorer (+1100 as a two-leg parlay)
McDavid needs two goals to hit the 50-goal plateau for the second time in his career, something that he did note was a goal entering the season, as well as his belief that being a little less selfish in front of goal would make him a more threatening skater overall.
The Oilers need to, at a minimum, get one point from this game to guarantee not facing a nightmare Round 1 matchup, and McDavid will certainly be first and foremost focused on securing the win. By no means are we expecting McDavid to necessarily change his approach too significantly in order to secure 50 goals.
However, McDavid has put up 12 goals over the last 15 games and generated an average of 0.53 individual expected goals in that span. Considering McDavid’s incredible form of late, it’s far from a reach on narrative to fancy his chances of scoring versus the Vancouver Canucks, who have allowed the most goals against in the NHL this season.
The Canucks’ top defensive pairing and top line have been respectable defensively, while the rest of the lineup has been routinely getting caved in. As a result, playing this matchup on home ice where the Oilers hold last change is even more advantageous for the Oilers, as McDavid and the Oilers’ top line should get some minutes in extremely favourable matchups in this game.
This is the exact type of spot where I like to target a skater scoring the last goal of the game in an empty-net situation. It was angle that came up a hair short for us in heartbreaking fashion in what was potentially Alex Ovechkin’s last game on Tuesday at +2500. It makes a lot of sense to try the angle again tonight, with the obvious difference being that McDavid will need to score his 49th earlier in the game to set up a situation where the Oilers would cheat heavily to let their guy get his 50th.
Leg 3: Edmonton Oilers -1.5 (-125 as a Straight Bet)
The Canucks have won three straight games entering this matchup, and as they are a lock to finish dead last, they will certainly be motivated to play the role of spoiler versus a division rival. While it’s been one of the best stretches of play of the season from Vancouver, it still holds a 41.23% expected goal share in the month of April, and those three wins all came in overtime versus mediocre opponents.
The Canucks’ goaltending still looks extremely iffy, and the overall strength of the roster is awful. They will undoubtedly leave it all out there in tonight’s matchup, but this still sets up as an extremely tough spot for a team that has been horrid defensively all year long.
Adding this leg moves the price of our SGP up from +1100 to +1500, and unlocks the 30% boost. Given that part of our handicap is that McDavid will potentially score the empty-net goal (unless the game is already out of reach), the adjustment in price looks to be livable to add this in as a final leg.
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