Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has spent much of his career terrorizing opposing pitchers at Rogers Centre, making his current home run drought all the more difficult to explain. The Toronto Blue Jays first baseman has yet to hit a home run at home in 2026, and as of Aug. 26, his drought at Rogers Centre has stretched beyond a full calendar year. His last home run in Toronto came on Aug. 15, 2025.
The drought is particularly striking because Guerrero Jr. has continued to show flashes of his trademark power on the road. He had seven home runs through 115 games entering his recent injured-list stint, and all seven came away from Rogers Centre. He returned from the seven-day concussion injured list Aug. 22 after missing time following a collision with Yankees shortstop George Lombard Jr.
Guerrero Jr. next home run at Rogers Centre odds
| Game | Odds |
| 8/26 vs. Royals | +700 |
| 8/27 vs. Royals | +750 |
| 8/28 vs. Mariners | +800 |
| 8/29 vs. Mariners | +850 |
| 8/30 vs. Mariners | +1000 |
| 9/11 vs. Orioles | +1250 |
| 9/12 vs. Orioles | +1400 |
| 9/13 vs. Orioles | +1700 |
| 9/14 vs. Tigers | +2000 |
| 9/15 vs. Tigers | +2250 |
| 9/16 vs. Tigers | +2500 |
| 9/25 vs. Reds | +3000 |
| 9/26 vs. Reds | +3500 |
| 9/27 vs. Reds | +4000 |
When will the streak end?
Firstly, this is an incredibly difficult betting market to handicap and bets should only be placed on it for purely entertainment purposes. There’s better value and predictability in backing Guerrero Jr. to go deep on a game-by-game basis rather than committing to a specific date, so we wouldn’t recommend wagering on him to homer on any date other than the next game on the schedule at that particular time.
So much can change on a game-by-game basis over the next month. Weather conditions, game context, starting pitching matchups, lineup shuffles, and injuries will all contribute to Guerrero’s Jr.’s success (or lack thereof) over the remaining four weeks of the regular season. There’s no sense in looking more forward than the next game and then handicapping accordingly.
It should be noted that there aren’t odds being offered at BET99 on Vladdy to not hit a homer at Rogers Centre this season, which might be a fun option for pessimistic and angry Blue Jays fans.
Guerrero Jr. to homer on 8/26 vs. Royals
Why is Guerrero Jr. struggling to hit for power?
So what is behind the power outage?
The biggest explanation appears to be a combination of reduced quality of contact and a difficult middle portion of the season. Guerrero entered 2026 with a reputation as one of baseball’s premier pure hitters, but his underlying Statcast numbers have taken a step backward. His average exit velocity sits at 90.1 mph, while his hard-hit rate is 43.1 per cent and his barrel rate is just 6.8 per cent. His expected weighted on-base average is .333, compared with a .306 actual wOBA, suggesting there has been some bad luck involved but not enough to explain the entire power decline.
The monthly splits illustrate the problem. Guerrero was productive in April, batting .351 with two home runs and a .902 OPS. His production then cratered in May and June. He hit just .232 with one homer and a .623 OPS in May, followed by a .198 average, one homer and a .499 OPS in June. His July numbers improved, but he still managed only two homers.
Health has also been an issue. Guerrero dealt with back and hamstring problems during the season before suffering the concussion that sidelined him in August. The hamstring issue forced him out of Toronto’s lineup Aug. 6, while the concussion cost him more than a week during a critical stretch of the Blue Jays’ season.
There is also an important distinction between Guerrero’s hitting ability and his home run production. He can still hit for average and get on base, but the damage has not been consistent. Against right-handed pitching this season, he has hit .258 with a .350 slugging percentage and five home runs in 337 at-bats. Against lefties, he has hit .274 with a .368 slugging percentage and two homers.
That makes the Rogers Centre drought feel less like a ballpark problem and more like a symptom of a broader power decline.
Still, Guerrero’s track record makes it difficult to believe the drought will continue indefinitely. His elite bat speed and ability to drive the ball remain, and his .333 expected wOBA indicates that his results have been somewhat worse than his underlying quality of contact would suggest.
For the Blue Jays, the timing could not be more important. Toronto is fighting for a playoff spot, and Guerrero remains the middle-of-the-order hitter most capable of changing a game with one swing. Ending the Rogers Centre drought would not fix his 2026 season, but a few balls leaving the yard in Toronto could go a long way toward restoring confidence in one of the franchise’s biggest stars.
