Our Royals vs. Blue Jays prediction for Thursday’s series finale presents a favourable matchup for Kansas City, with the Royals sending Noah Cameron to the mound against Toronto newcomer Spencer Arrighetti.
Royals vs. Blue Jays prediction
Royals moneyline: -110 best odds @ Sports Interaction
Royals moneyline
The Royals were shut out by a plethora of Blue Jays relief pitchers on Wednesday, but that’s exactly why they should have a decisive advantage in this series finale on Thursday night.
Toronto burned through seven relief pitchers as part of a planned bullpen day, putting a ton of pressure on starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti on Thursday to give them some much-needed length with several relievers fatigued. Four of Toronto’s relievers have pitched on back-to-back days heading into this contest, so manager John Schneider’s options will be limited, especially if Arrighetti can’t get to at least the fifth inning.
The Royals are countering with lefty Noah Cameron, who has pitched brilliantly recently (more on that below), and they have a fresh bullpen after using just one reliever on Wednesday. That should put them firmly in the driver seat in this matchup and in position to take the rubber match of this three-game series.
Additionally, Toronto has struggled mightily against left-handers this season, slashing a combined .224/294/.347 with a .641 OPS against southpaws. That OPS mark is the second lowest in the majors against lefties behind Seattle (.634).
Royals vs. Blue Jays odds
| Royals moneyline odds | -112 |
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | +102 |
| Run line odds | Royals -1.5 (+150), Blue Jays +1.5 (-180) |
| Game total | Over 8.5 runs (+100), Under 8.5 (-120) |
| Date/time | Aug. 27, 7:07 p.m. ET |
Betting the Royals (59-75 SU, 63-71 ATS, 61-71-2 o/u)
The Kansas City Royals have been one of MLB’s hottest teams in August, turning around a disappointing season with an impressive late-summer surge. Their nine-game winning streak, which ended Wednesday with a 3-0 loss to Toronto, was their longest since 2017.
During the streak, Kansas City averaged 6.3 runs per game and produced a plus-27 run differential, a remarkable turnaround for an offence that has averaged just over four runs per game for the season. The Royals also completed a perfect 7-0 homestand, including a three-game sweep of Detroit, one of only four such seven-game sweeps in franchise history.
Overall, though, it’s been a miserable season for the Royals, who are just playing for pride at this point.
Betting the Blue Jays (65-69 SU, 64-70 ATS, 70-62-2 o/u)
The Blue Jays find themselves three games back of the final AL playoff spot entering this contest, giving them a 13% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. With 28 games left in the regular season, the Blue Jays have the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule (.469), so there’s a real opportunity for a playoff push.
Toronto used seven relief pitchers in Wednesday’s victory over the Royals, and four of those pitchers have thrown on back-to-back days heading into this series finale. That means Toronto will be at a serious disadvantage from a fatigue perspective on Thursday, especially if Arrighetti can’t give them a quality start.
Probable starting pitchers
Kansas City: LHP Noah Cameron (8-8, 4.02 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.04 K/9)
Cameron profiles as a serviceable depth starter that has had some excellent results recently. He hasn’t surrendered a run over his last two starts against the Tigers and Angels while limiting those two teams to just three hits, and he’s managed 10 strikeouts over his last 14 innings of work.
The southpaw has also been exceptional on the road this season, recording a very respectable 3.33 ERA while holding opponents to a .196 batting average over 75 innings. In August, Cameron owns a sparkling 1.63 ERA while holding opponents to a microscopic .129 batting average.
Nothing jumps off the page regarding Cameron from a Statcast perspective, as he profiles as a league-average hurler in most advanced stats. His changeup has been very effective against right-handed batters, holding them to a .188 batting average (.216 xBA).
Toronto: RHP Spencer Arrighetti (7-6, 4.73 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.97 K/9)
Arrighetti will make his first start for the Blue Jays after being acquired via the Astros after Toronto exhausted its relief corps by having a bullpen game on Wednesday, so there’s pressure for him to give Toronto some length in this series finale.
The 26-year-old righty excels at limiting hard contact with his seven-pitch arsenal, ranking in the 91st percentile in hard-hit rate (31.1%). He also ranks in the 98th percentile in extension.
Arrighetti threw 3 1/3 innings of relief for Toronto on Aug. 21 against the Yankees, who touched him up for three runs on three hits. He threw 61 pitches in that outing, so he should be fresh for this start.
Notable injuries
The following notable players are on the injured list for Kansas City:
- P Carlos Estevez (shoulder)
- P Tony Gonsolin (elbow)
- OF Jac Caglianone (ankle) is day-to-day
- 3B Maikel Garcia (hamstring)
- P James McArthur (elbow)
- P Cole Ragans (elbow)
The following notable players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- OF Addison Barger (elbow)
- RHP José Berríos (elbow)
- RHP Bowden Francis (shoulder)
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Trey Yesavage (knee)
- P Patrick Corbin (shoulder)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- P Shane Bieber (shoulder)
Weather
It should be an ideal evening for outdoor baseball in Toronto. Forecasts are projecting temperatures around 23 C with clear skies. Winds will blow from left field to right field at 10 mph.
Royals vs. Blue Jays betting trends
- The Royals are 23-45 on the road this season.
- Toronto has hit the F5 team total under in 22 of its last 26 home games.
- Kansas City is 10-2 over its last 12 games.
- The over is 6-2-1 in Toronto’s last nine games.
Royals vs. Blue Jays player prop trends
- Arrighetti has walked two or more batters in four straight appearances and six of his last 10. He’s -175 to walk over 1.5 batters on Thursday.
- Bobby Witt Jr. has walked at least once in three straight games and seven of his last 10. He’s -160 to earn over 0.5 walks.
- Tyler Tolbert has stolen bases in back-to-back games and in five of his last 10. He’s +230 to steal a bag.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit safely in two straight games and in nine of his last 10. He’s -225 to get a hit.
