Nine games left, two teams tied at 76-77, and a wild-card spot neither can afford to lose. That’s the backdrop for this Blue Jays vs. Rangers prediction, as Toronto and Texas open a three-game set at Globe Life Field on Friday night with their seasons hanging in the balance. Both clubs sit two games behind Cleveland for the final AL wild-card berth, and the Rangers are also just one back of Houston in the AL West. With Cy Young contender Dylan Cease matched against Kumar Rocker and both managers ready to empty their bullpens, we expect a tense, low-scoring night—and we’re backing the under 7.5 runs.
Blue Jays vs. Rangers prediction
Under 7.5 runs: -105 best odds @ FanDuel
Under 7.5 runs
You can expect a playoff atmosphere for this game with so much on the line for both teams, which means we should see a relatively low-scoring contest.
We have a solid starting pitching matchup with Cy Young contender Cease toeing the rubber for Toronto opposite Rocker, who had an exceptional start against the Blue Jays earlier this season. Beyond that, expect both managers to go to their respective bullpens early and often for the best possible matchups in an attempt to gain a crucial win and remain relevant in the AL playoff race.
Playoff games typically have game totals around 7.5 or even lower, to 7 or 6.5, so it’s no surprise to see the 7.5-run total in this crucial matchup, especially with the dominant Cease on the mound for Toronto. Don’t be scared of the low number and back the under 7.5 runs at your preferred MLB betting site.
Blue Jays vs. Rangers odds
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -135 |
| Rangers moneyline odds | +115 |
| Run line odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+125), Rangers +1.5 (-150) |
| Game total | Over 7.5 runs (-115), Under 7.5 (-105) |
| Date/time | Sept. 18, 8:05 p.m. ET |
Betting the Blue Jays (76-77 SU, 75-78 ATS, 79-72-2 o/u)
It’s do-or-die time for the Blue Jays, who trail Cleveland by two games for the final AL wild-card spot with just nine regular-season games left to play. Baseball projection site FanGraphs is giving them a 24.2% chance of making the playoffs, as all nine of their remaining games are against foes with losing records (Texas, Baltimore, and Cincinnati).
Toronto dropped two of three games to Detroit earlier this week but did salvage a 5-1 victory on Wednesday to keep its playoff hopes alive. The squad had the day off on Thursday, which means the bullpen will have a rest advantage over the Rangers, who played on Thursday night against Boston.
Betting the Rangers (76-77 SU, 73-80 ATS, 78-67-8 o/u)
The Rangers find themselves in an interesting position entering play Friday, with both a chance of winning the AL West or claiming the final AL wild-card spot possible. Texas trails Houston by just a single game for the top spot in the AL West and Cleveland by two games for the final AL wild-card spot. Obviously, winning the AL West Division would be fortuitous for Texas in order to claim home advantage in the opening round of the playoffs.
Texas is in good form, winning four of its last five games. However, it did suffer a heartbreaking 4-3 defeat to Boston on Thursday after closer Jacob Latz surrendered a three-run homer to Trevor Story in the eighth inning to put the Red Sox ahead.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Dylan Cease (11-5, 2.38 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 12.77 K/9)
Cease has been simply remarkable in his first full season with the Blue Jays, leading the AL in strikeouts with 236 to make him a candidate for the Cy Young Award (currently +2200 behind Cam Schlittler (-25000).
The fireballer has recorded seven or more strikeouts in 19 consecutive starts, one shy of the MLB record currently held by legendary pitchers Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling.
It’s important to note Cease did struggle with his control in his last start against Baltimore, walking a season-high five batters over five innings of work.
Texas smacked Cease around for four runs on four hits over 4 2/3 innings back on June 27 at Rogers Centre, although the righty did strike out 10 Rangers batters.
Texas: RHP Kumar Rocker (5-11, 4.54 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 8.57 K/9)
Rocker has been the definition of a middle-of-the-road starter this season, pitching to around the league average in most Statcast metrics this season.
His most effective pitch is his slider, which he throws roughly 38% of the time and especially to left-handed hitters. The opposition is hitting just .195 (.181 xBA) off the pitch.
The young right-hander pitched exceptionally well against Toronto on June 28 at Rogers Centre, holding the Blue Jays scoreless over six innings on just four hits with five strikeouts.
Notable injuries
The following players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- P Trey Yesavage (knee)
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- P Patrick Corbin (shoulder)
- P Shane Bieber (shoulder)
- P Jameson Taillon (elbow)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- OF Addison Barger (elbow)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
The following notable players are injured for Texas:
- DH Joc Pederson (hand)
- P MacKenzie Gore (back)
- P Jack Leiter (ankle)
- C Kyle Higashioka (forearm)
Weather
Forecasts are calling for extreme heat, and there’s an air quality alert out for Arlington, so the retractable dome will likely be closed for this contest.
Blue Jays vs. Rangers betting trends
- The Rangers are 4-0 vs. the Blue Jays this season. The over cashed in three of those four previous meetings.
- The over is 5-1 in Toronto’s last six games.
- The Rangers have hit the F5 team total over in 16 of their last 23 games.
- The Rangers have covered the run line in 12 of their last 17 games.
Blue Jays vs. Rangers player prop trends
- Former Blue Jay Danny Jansen has hit safely in seven straight games and nine of his last 10. He’s +100 to get a hit.
- Brett Bateman has cleared 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in six straight games and is -125 to do it again.
- Alejandro Kirk has driven in at least one run in three straight games and six of his last 10. He’s +145 to record at least one RBI.
- Cease has allowed one run or fewer in four of his last five starts and in seven of his last 10. He’s +100 to record under 1.5 earned runs.
