The Ottawa Senators visit KeyBank Center in Buffalo on Wednesday, Nov. 4, with puck drop against the Sabres scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Our Senators vs. Sabres prediction backs Tage Thompson to record 4+ shots on goal in the full game.
Buffalo swept its three-game California trip, while Ottawa finished its California swing 1-1-1. Both teams found plenty of offence out west, but each conceded six goals in Anaheim.
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Our Senators vs. Sabres Prediction
Tage Thompson 4+ shots on goal
We like Thompson to reach three shots because his shooting volume and projected deployment give him a route to cash without needing to score or for Buffalo to win. Buffalo’s top forward has averaged 4.5 shots on goal per game this season, beating this line in 10 of his 14 games (71 per cent rate).
On his California trip, he registered six shots at San Jose, four at Anaheim, and eight at Los Angeles. Thompson is projected on Buffalo’s first line and first power-play unit, giving him opportunities to generate shots at even strength and with the man advantage.
Still, October also included a zero-shot outing at Washington and two games with only one shot apiece. Those quiet nights are the clearest warning against treating a prominent offensive role as insurance.
We’re backing the four-shot milestone on the strength of his sustained volume and expected opportunities.
Senators vs. Sabres Game Odds
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Senators moneyline | +109 |
| Sabres moneyline | -129 |
| Puck line | Senators +1.5 (-220), Sabres -1.5 (+180) |
| Game total | Over 6.5 (-120), Under 6.5 (+100) |
Probable Starting Goaltenders
- Ottawa: Samuel Ersson (1-4, 3.78 GAA, .866 SV%)
- Buffalo: Colten Ellis (3-1, 3.11 GAA, .880 SV%)
Betting the Senators (9-7 SU, 5-11 ATS, 7-9 o/u)
Ottawa scored 13 goals and conceded 13 across its three California games. A four-goal third-period comeback salvaged a point in a 6-5 overtime loss at Los Angeles, followed by a 5-1 win at San Jose and a 6-3 defeat at Anaheim. The offence gave the Senators chances to collect points, but keeping games under control was another matter.
Special teams were particularly costly against the Ducks. Ottawa went 0-for-3 on the power play, including a five-on-three opportunity, while Anaheim scored four times on five power plays.
“We didn’t get it done and that’s where we have to be better for the next game in Buffalo,” Thomas Chabot said, identifying both the power play and penalty kill as areas needing improvement.
Discipline matters against Buffalo’s offensive personnel. Dylan Cozens received a five-minute major and game misconduct in the third period for a hit to A.J. Greer’s head, an incident subject to automatic review. Giving the Sabres extended power-play time would make Ottawa’s defensive task harder.
Batherson, Stephen Halliday, Cozens, Tim Stützle, and Jake Sanderson form Ottawa’s projected first power-play unit. That tentative group needs to turn its own opportunities into a response rather than leave the Senators losing ground on both sides of special teams.
Goaltending adds another concern: Ottawa had a .858 team save percentage over its last 10 games entering this matchup. Linus Ullmark returned to team practice Tuesday but remains out with a lower-body injury. André Burakovsky is also out with a lower-body injury, William Eklund with an ankle injury, and Warren Foegele with a knee injury.
Betting the Sabres (7-7 SU, 6-8 ATS, 9-5 o/u)
Buffalo’s California wins came in very different forms: 2-0 at San Jose, 7-6 at Anaheim, and 3-2 at Los Angeles. The Sabres scored 12 goals and allowed eight, showing they could win a tight game as well as a shootout.
The Anaheim victory supplied both encouragement and a warning. Buffalo erased an early 2-0 deficit by the first intermission, but allowing six goals meant its offence had little margin for error. Against an Ottawa team that scored five in both Los Angeles and San Jose, the Sabres cannot count on outscoring every defensive lapse.
Thompson drove the Anaheim attack with three goals and two assists. His 10th career hat trick tied Alexander Mogilny and Danny Gare for third-most in Sabres history.
Zach Benson missed Monday’s practice for maintenance, participated fully Tuesday, and is active, coach Lindy Ruff said. Benson is projected alongside Peyton Krebs and Thompson on the first line, preserving that potential combination for the return home.
Rasmus Dahlin, Thompson, Noah Östlund, Jack Quinn, and Benson make up Buffalo’s projected first power-play unit. Ottawa’s penalty-killing problems give that tentative group an obvious area to attack, provided the Sabres earn the opportunities.
Jiří Kulich is active, but Buffalo remains without Justin Danforth, Konsta Helenius, and Alex Lyon because of upper-body injuries. Matt Grzelcyk and Conor Timmins are out with lower-body injuries.
Player Prop Trends
- Drake Batherson has recorded a point in eight straight games and is -160 to extend that streak.
- Zach Benson is riding a four-game points streak into action Wednesday and is -135 to extend his run.
- Both Jack Quinn and Tage Thompson have scored in back-to-back games. Quinn is +220 to score; Thompson is +140.
- Jake Sanderson has recorded an assist in three straight games and six of his last 10. He’s +120 to register a helper.
