Our Liverpool vs. Chelsea prediction for this May 9 Premier League clash at Anfield points squarely toward the Reds to win at home, as Arne Slot’s side looks to lock down Champions League qualification against a Chelsea team in the midst of a dreadful six‑match losing run. With both teams leaking goals, the betting angle leans toward Liverpool to collect three points while both sides still find the net in another high‑octane meeting between these historic rivals.
Our Pick: Liverpool to Win (-118)
Our top Liverpool vs. Chelsea pick is backing the home side on the moneyline. The contrast in form is too stark to ignore. Liverpool has won three of its last four Premier League matches, while Chelsea is currently on a six-game losing streak. The Reds have a clear objective and the home-field advantage needed to achieve it.
Furthermore, Anfield has been a house of horrors for the Blues, who have managed just one victory there in their last 10 visits. Liverpool will also be seeking revenge for a last-gasp defeat at Stamford Bridge earlier this season. With Champions League football on the line, expect a dominant performance from Arne Slot’s men against a team that is leaking goals and struggling for any semblance of rhythm.
Liverpool vs. Chelsea Betting Trends
- Liverpool Home Record: The Reds have lost just one of their previous 11 league matches at Anfield, winning six.
- Chelsea Away Form: The Blues have lost their last two away matches without scoring while conceding six goals.
- Head-to-Head at Anfield: Chelsea has won just once in their last 10 Premier League trips to Liverpool.
Liverpool to win
Bonus Tip: Both Teams To Score – Yes & Over 2.5 Goals (-152)
While we expect a Liverpool victory, their defence is far from impenetrable. The Reds have found clean sheets hard to come by this season, even at Anfield, where they have conceded in 12 of their 17 league games. Coming off a five-goal thriller against Manchester United, their attack is firing, but their backline remains susceptible.
This betting angle finds even more value when looking at Chelsea’s defensive record. The Blues have been incredibly vulnerable on the road, shipping 14 goals across their last five away matches. The historical trend also supports this wager, as both teams have found the back of the net and the match has featured at least three goals in four of the last five meetings between these clubs, including the last two at Anfield.
Liverpool vs. Chelsea Betting Trends
- Liverpool at Anfield: This bet has landed in five of Liverpool’s last six league matches at home, which have averaged 3.83 goals per game.
- Chelsea’s Road Defence: The Blues have conceded an average of 2.8 goals per game over their last five away fixtures.
- Head-to-Head Trend: Four of the last five matches between Liverpool and Chelsea have seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals.
BTTS & over 2.5 goals
Key Match Info for Liverpool vs. Chelsea (May 9, 2026)
Competition: Premier League
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. Local Time, 7:30 a.m. ET
Venue: Anfield
Latest Liverpool vs. Chelsea Match Odds and Data Projections
The odds for this Premier League clash reflect Liverpool’s strong home form against a struggling Chelsea side. Here’s a look at the moneyline odds for the match.
According to our in-house data projection model, Liverpool holds a significant edge. The model gives the Reds a high probability of securing all three points at Anfield, which is crucial for their Champions League aspirations.
| Team | Projected Chance of Winning |
| Liverpool | 42.8% |
| Draw | 22.2% |
| Chelsea | 35.0% |
The data also points towards a high-scoring affair. With both teams showing defensive vulnerabilities throughout the season, our model projects over three goals in this encounter.
| Metric | Projection |
| Liverpool Projected Goals | 1.75 |
| Match Total Projected Goals | 3.36 |
| Chelsea Projected Goals | 1.61 |
Liverpool vs. Chelsea Odds & Performance Breakdown
This match pits a Liverpool squad desperate to lock down a Champions League spot against a Chelsea team in complete freefall. The Reds are looking to bounce back from a tough loss to their rivals Manchester United, while the Blues arrive at Anfield mired in their worst form in decades. For Liverpool, anything less than a victory would be a massive disappointment in a season that has fallen short of expectations. Securing a top-four finish is the last remaining objective.
Chelsea, on the other hand, are a team in crisis. After showing early-season promise of challenging for Europe, their campaign has completely unravelled. An FA Cup final offers a glimmer of hope, but their league form is disastrous. They are on a six-game losing streak and in danger of missing out on European football entirely. This trip to Anfield, a venue where they have historically struggled, could not come at a worse time. A Liverpool vs. Chelsea prediction has to account for the massive gap in confidence and form between these two clubs.
Liverpool Breakdown
Despite a season with more defeats than they would like, Liverpool has turned Anfield into a fortress. They have won 10 of their 17 home matches and lost just one of their last 11 at the storied ground. The primary motivation is clear: a win confirms their place in next season’s Champions League. However, their defence has been a consistent issue, particularly from set-pieces, where they have conceded a record 17 goals. They often have to fight from behind, having conceded the opening goal in 21 of 54 matches across all competitions. An extensive injury list in attack further complicates matters.
- Predicted Lineup: Woodman; Jones, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Gravenberch, MacAllister; Frimpong, Szoboszlai, Wirtz; Gakpo
- Injuries: Hugo Ekitike, Mohamed Salah, Giorgi Mamardashvili, Alexander Isak, Alisson Becker
- Suspensions: None
Chelsea Breakdown
Chelsea’s form is nothing short of abysmal. The club has matched a 33-year low by losing six consecutive league games for the first time since 1993. Their season has collapsed, plummeting them to ninth place and putting them in jeopardy of finishing in the bottom half of the table. A recent goal from Joao Pedro snapped a staggering 565-minute goal drought, but it did little to mask the deep-rooted issues. With an interim manager at the helm and confidence at rock bottom, the Blues look vulnerable against any opponent, let alone a motivated Liverpool side at Anfield.
- Predicted Lineup: Sanchez; Gusto, Chalobah, Adarabioyo, Cucurella; Caicedo, Lavia; Palmer, Fernandez, Neto; Pedro
- Injuries: Estevao, Jamie Gittens
- Suspensions: Mykhailo Mudryk
The Final Whistle
Tactically, this match projects to be a one-sided affair. Expect Liverpool to control the tempo and possession from the opening whistle, pressing high to exploit a fragile Chelsea defence that lacks confidence. The game script will likely involve sustained pressure from the hosts, who will look to create chances through their dynamic wing play and midfield control. Chelsea’s best hope will be to stay compact and try to hit on the counter-attack, but given their recent struggles to even create scoring opportunities, it’s hard to envision them troubling a Liverpool side with so much on the line.