Bet365 is offering a 25% same game parlay boost for Tuesday’s 11-game NHL slate, and we’re excited to detail our three-leg same game parlay for Tuesday’s matchup between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Ottawa Senators below, which prices out at +250 prior to the 25% boost.
The Senators got right with a critical win over the Carolina Hurricanes on Sunday, and with some recent luck on the out of town scoreboard, now control their own destiny in terms of securing a playoff berth once again. Though they are two big asterisks, when the Senators are at full health and receiving respectable goaltending, there’s a legitimate argument to be made that they could make some noise in the postseason.
Our parlay pick will count on Ottawa earning two critical points from a fairly high-event matchup, led by the return of top defenceman Jake Sanderson.
- Ottawa Senators Moneyline (-130 as a straight)
- Over 5.5 Goals (-175 as a straight)
- Jake Sanderson Over 0.5 Points (-130 as a straight bet)
Nick’s Lightning/Senators SGP
Ottawa Senators Moneyline (-130 as a straight)
The Senators’ overall process continues to look quite excellent, especially if you less heavily weigh their recent matchups in which they played with the majority of their regular defenders sidelined.
Ottawa is 16-6-3 over the last 25 games and has scored 3.36 goals per game in that span while allowing 2.52 goals against per game. It holds a league-leading 59.08% expected goal share in that span and has generated 4.24 xGF/60, which also ranks first in the NHL.
Despite all the recent drama, the on-ice product has been quite excellent, though they are always fighting an uphill battle with Linus Ullmark in goal.
While Ullmark’s level of play is a concern, the Lightning will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back. With Jonas Johansson likely to start they will not have the same goaltending edge they would typically have in this matchup, while Tuesday’s AHL call-ups suggest both Pontus Holmberg and Brayden Point will miss this matchup after a pair of fairly nasty-looking collisions in a hotly-contested matchup versus the Buffalo Sabres Monday.
Over 5.5 Goals (-175 as a straight)
This does seem like a logical spot to expect the Senators will win with a strong offensive performance. As strong as the Senators have been defensively, Ullmark remains a big question mark in goal, and Nikita Kucherov and a high-powered Bolts offence should be capable of contributing at least two goals to the total.
While I don’t believe the Senators will completely shut the Lightning down offensively, they should have a great chance to score four or more in this matchup, even if the Lightning have generally been excellent defensively this season.
Johansson has played to a -9.6 GSAx rating and .886 save percentage across 23 performances this season. He has not yet been confirmed as the Lightning starter, but they have been very cautious in not starting Vasilevskiy in back-to-back games this season. This game does have value to Tampa Bay with winning the division still an attainable goal, but I don’t expect head coach Jon Cooper to value that over the risk of potentially overloading the current Vezina favourite.
As noted above, the Senators hold a league-leading 4.24 xGF/60 rating over the last 25 games. They have four well-balanced offensive units that are all generating a respectable amount of chances, and with Sanderson back in the lineup, they have solid play-driving ability on the back end.
Jake Sanderson (-130 as a straight)
You could really spice this parlay up with a number of props involving a strong offensive performance from the Senators, but considering the current outlook of the blue-line, a price of -130 for Sanderson to record a point really sticks out to me.
In his second game back in the lineup on Sunday, Sanderson skated 26:44, recording one assist. He should receive similar usage in this critical matchup, and will remain on the top power play and top defensive pairing. Over his last 20 games played he’s racked up 16 points, and that level of production seems sustainable given his hefty workload and offensive skillset.
Sanderson quarterbacks the Senators’ strong top power-play unit, and spends a lot of time attacking in the offensive zone while playing alongside the team’s excellent top line of Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, and Claude Giroux.
In a game where we are looking for something like a 4-2 or 5-3 win from the Senators, targeting Sanderson to record at least one point seems to be a safe third leg of our parlay.
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