Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best player prop bets and top betting picks available from Thursday’s four-game Olympic men’s hockey slate.
We will look to stay hot on our player prop picks Thursday, as we break down the first full slate of Olympic men’s hockey. These player prop guides are currently up 16.65 units across 115 selections in the NHL. Hopefully that success will carry over into what should be a highly exciting Olympic tournament, and I’m excited to outline my favourite looks from Thursday’s games in this piece.
Tage Thompson To Score: +160
Thompson to score
Team USA will look to get off to a strong start Thursday when they take on Latvia in the tournament opener. The Americans are priced at -154 to cover a spread of 3.5 goals in a game featuring a total of 6.5.
Wednesday’s opening matchups proved that any team has a fighting chance in this tournament if they receive elite goaltending and limit the amount of odd-man rushes allowed, but it’s still hard to imagine a thin Latvian side holding a stacked American side to less than three goals in this matchup, at a minimum.
Thompson is a notable newcomer up front on the U.S. Olympic roster compared to the unit we saw lose in overtime of the championship final at the 4 Nations Face-Off, given that he appears likely to have earned a role on the team’s top power-play unit and third line alongside Kyle Connor and Dylan Larkin.
GM Bill Guerin opted to pass on bringing Cole Caufield and Jason Robertson to this tournament. While I don’t personally agree with the decision, part of the thinking was likely that Thompson adds some serious goal-scoring upside to the roster, which came up one goal short last February, and that they would not have used Caufield or Robertson on the top power-play unit.
Thompson has one of the best one-timers in the NHL and should get some good looks skating on a unit quarterbacked by Quinn Hughes, and with other elite shooters such as Auston Matthews and Jack Eichel and a strong net-front presence in Matthew Tkachuk.
While there are plenty of threats on the top unit, it won’t be surprising if Thompson’s one-timer still proves to be the number-one look they attempt to set up.
While Thompson is on the third offensive line at even strength, it wouldn’t surprise me if the top American three units are rolled fairly evenly in the softer matchups in this tournament, with the skaters on the fourth line of Jack Hughes, J.T. Miller, and Brock Nelson being the one that receive much less even-strength ice time than they are used to.
Larkin has been absolutely fantastic for the Detroit Red Wings this season, while Connor remains one of the best wingers in the game. The three certainly may combine to be a highly formidable force in this tournament, and while we love Thompson’s role on the top power-play unit, I also like his chances of getting some looks at even strength.
Leon Draisaitl Over 3.5 Shots on Goal: +135
Draisaitl over 3.5 SOG
The Germans could prove to be a tough out in this tournament, given that they have three of the very best skaters in the NHL in Draisaitl, Tim Stutzle, and Moritz Seider. Philipp Grubauer has also been sneaky-good for the Seattle Kraken, and could provide solid play in goal.
While the Germans have some elite talents up front, they do suffer from a notable lack of depth. While many other superstars in this tournament playing on ultra-deep rosters may play less minutes than usual, the opposite likely will be true for Germany’s stars, as they will likely use Draisaitl, Stutzle, and Seider as much as possible in all close game scripts.
The Germans appear to be opting for balance in playing Stutzle and Draisaitl on separate lines at even strength. I’d prefer if the two were together for the sake of this prop, but Draisaitl should still be likely to tilt the ice quite heavily in this specific matchup playing alongside Dominik Kahun and Lukas Reichel.
Germany’s top power-play unit could also prove to be quite effective, and they will certainly look to find Draisaitl’s one-timer from the off side as much as possible.
Oddsmakers have spiked Draisaitl’s shot prop line up to 3.5 compared to the heavily juiced 2.5 we see at the NHL level, but at a long price of +135, it still looks quite bettable. Draisaitl has recorded over 3.5 shots on goal in six of his last 11 games at the NHL level.
It’s a bit of an apples-to-oranges comparison, but based on the first two games of this tournament, star players may be capable of clearing much higher lines in this tournament. It wouldn’t surprise me if Draisaitl and Stutzle both generate shots per 60 at a significantly higher rate than they do at the NHL level when they face softer opponents, like Denmark in this tournament, and we seem to be getting a good price to buy into that speculation here.
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