The Australian Open serves up a blockbuster fourth-round showdown on Saturday as Canadian teen Victoria Mboko faces world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka.
Mboko, the 17-year-old wildcard sensation, looks to pull off the upset of the tournament against the Belarusian powerhouse chasing her third straight title. This David vs. Goliath clash promises fireworks on Rod Laver Arena as this will be the first career meeting between these dangerous players.
Our best bet for Saturday’s Australian open tennis match between Mboko and Sabalenka is Sabalenka under 3.5 double faults.
Mboko vs. Sabalenka best bet
Sabalenka under 3.5 double faults
Sabalenka has been incredible over the past few years and is currently dominating the women’s tour. With two titles already at this complex, she looks determined to secure a third. She has yet to lose a set in 2026, winning Brisbane comfortably and dispatching her first three opponents here in straight sets.
In her third-round match against Potapova, despite the pressure and the length of the match, she committed only two double faults. In her previous rounds, she recorded only one against Rajaonah and one against Bai. While Victoria Mboko is a high-level opponent, Sabalenka’s current serve mechanics are very refined. Given the likelihood of Sabalenka controlling the pace of the match, I expect her to keep her double faults to a minimum. My prediction is for Sabalenka to commit under 3.5 double faults @ bet365.
Sabalenka match insights
Sabalenka is a 27-year-old Belarusian, currently the world No. 1. Sabalenka is arguably the best player in the world, despite the current WTA landscape being filled with exceptional players and immense potential. While she trails Iga Swiatek in Grand Slam titles (4 to 6), Sabalenka dominates the circuit with her staggering consistency. She reaches finals almost every tournament, rarely suffering early-round exits. Her occasional modest performances typically only occur in the closing stages against fellow Top 10 players.
In almost all other matchups, Aryna is authoritative, winning the majority of her matches 2-0. Her strengths are multifaceted: she possesses one of the world’s best serves and has drastically improved her second serve over the last few years. Once a vulnerability that sapped her confidence, it is now a stable and efficient weapon.
From the baseline, she is highly aggressive, striking the ball violently in search of winners. She places constant pressure on the return, allowing her to break serve with ease. Furthermore, her mental game is now a massive advantage; Sabalenka appears unshakable, confident, and intimidating to her opponents. While she still has moments of emotional release on court, she now has the ability to regroup instantly.
Her versatility is another asset, as she has no weak surface. This is reflected in her Grand Slam record: 4 hard-court titles (two here and two at the US Open), a Roland Garros final last year, and semi-finals at Wimbledon. She enters 2026 in peak form, having already won the Brisbane title without dropping a single set. Here in Melbourne, she has maintained that rhythm, winning all her matches in straight sets, including a hard-fought 7-6, 7-6 victory over Anastasia Potapova where she managed the tie-breaks perfectly.
Australian Open 2026 Results:
- R1: Defeated Rakotomanga Rajaonah (No. 118) 6-4, 6-1.
- R2: Defeated Zhuoxuan Bai (No. 702) 6-3, 6-1.
R3: Defeated Anastasia Potapova (No. 55) 7-6, 7-6.
Mboko match insights
Victoria Mboko is a 19-year-old Canadian, currently ranked No. 16 in the WTA. Mboko is currently at a career-high ranking, experiencing a meteoric rise. A year ago, she was ranked outside the Top 300; today, she is a star of the circuit and a potential future Grand Slam champion. Climbing over 330 ranking spots in 12 months is simply impressive.
Mboko is already knocking on the door of the Top 10 (ranked 12th in the live rankings). For her age, Victoria shows remarkable maturity. She possesses massive baseline power and one of the most efficient serves in the WTA. Her mental resilience is equally notable; last year, she won the Montreal title at home, defeating champions like Gauff, Rybakina, and Osaka while coming back from set deficits.
She started 2026 by reaching the final in Adelaide (losing to Mirra Andreeva) and has been excellent in Melbourne. In the third round, she survived a see-saw battle against Clara Tauson, showing great focus in the deciding set. Today, however, she faces her ultimate test against the world No. 1.
Australian Open 2026 Results:
- R1: Defeated Emerson Jones (No. 153) 6-4, 6-1.
- R2: Defeated Caty McNally (No. 85) 6-4, 6-3.
R3: Defeated Clara Tauson (No. 14 seed) 7-6, 5-7, 6-3.