Trey Yesavage and the Blue Jays‘ top relievers held Bo Bichette and the Mets’ offence in check in the series opener, but replicating that performance could prove difficult with Kevin Gausman struggling and Toronto likely leaning on some of its lower-leverage relievers Tuesday. Our Mets vs. Blue Jays prediction is backing Toronto’s 2025 RBI leader, Bichette, to record an RBI against his former team at an attractive price.
It was more of a nail-biter than fans and Blue Jays backers would have preferred, but the Blue Jays did just enough to earn a desperately needed win in the opener. They are slight favourites in Game 2 of the series as Kevin Gausman (4.36 ERA, 95 IP) will face off against Nolan McLean (4.03 ERA, 89 1/3 IP).
After a winning selection backing the Blue Jays to win Monday, Nick holds a record of +0.69 units across 13 MLB betting predictions this season.
Mets vs Blue Jays Prediction: Bo Bichette to Record an RBI: +205 (Play to +190)
Bichette to record an RBI
Ahead of Gausman’s most recent start, we highlighted how consistently he had responded to his worst outings as a Blue Jay by bouncing back with a strong performance. This time, however, he was unable to do so, and the bigger concern is that over what has become a fairly meaningful sample, his stuff simply hasn’t looked as sharp as we’ve grown accustomed to seeing.
Across his last six starts (31 innings), Gausman has pitched to an ERA of 6.68 and holds an xFIP of 4.32. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 92 in that span, and a Pitching+ rating of 97, and batters have made plenty of quality contact, as he’s allowed a hard-hit rate of 46%.
Assuming the Mets stick with Carson Benge and Juan Soto at the top of the order in front of Bichette, for the former Blue Jay should have a good chance of receiving some at-bats with runners in scoring position in this matchup.
Benge holds an OPS of .794 versus righties this season and has slugged .438 since May 1st, while Soto holds an OPS of 1.021 versus righties and has slugged .567 since May 1st.
Bichette did not record a hit in the opener, but made quality contact in three of four plate appearances and held an xBA of .363. Throughout the last 40 games (174 PAs), Bichette has slugged .509 and recorded 28 RBIs.
Backing Soto to record over 1.5 total bases at +110 is another interesting option, but a price of +205 for Bichette to record an RBI appears to offer plenty of value.
Mets vs. Blue Jays odds
| Mets moneyline odds | +100 |
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -120 |
| Run line odds | Mets +1.5 (-210), Blue Jays -1.5 (+175) |
| Game total | Over 7.5 runs (-125), Under 7.5 (+105) |
| Date/time | June 30, 7:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting New York Mets
While McLean has not been horrible by any means, his 4.03 ERA is a disappointment relative to preseason expectations, and is one of the many reasons for New York’s extreme underachievement this season. McLean’s underlying numbers do suggest he may yield better results moving forward, as he holds an xERA of 3.42 and an xFIP of 3.41.
The highly touted young righty had an excellent debut campaign in 2025, as he pitched to an ERA of 2.06 across 48 innings. His Stuff+ rating of 108 is on par with what we saw last season, and he still holds an excellent strikeout rate of 28.5%, but stranding just 67% of baserunners has been the driving force behind his modest ERA.
McLean has started to live up to the hype once again in his recent outings, as throughout his last five starts McLean has pitched to an ERA of 3.21, and allowed a hard-hit rate of 31.9%.
In a game where they trailed once starter Sean Manaea left the game, the Mets did not use any of their top relievers, and the bullpen is in good shape entering this matchup. Over the last 30 days, New York’s bullpen has pitched to an ERA of 3.61 and holds an xFIP of 3.59.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays
While the Blue Jays’ play throughout their six-game losing skid was not overly impressive, it was also fairly plain to see that they were not receiving any breaks in some closely contested matchups. That changed on Monday, as George Springer was gifted a little league home-run in Toronto’s first plate appearance of the game, which ultimately could be viewed as the difference in the game.
McLean will offer a tough test to a Blue Jays lineup that has been scuffling of late, after showing signs of a breakout for much of June. Since June 1st, the Blue Jays have been solid versus righties in hitting to a wRC+ of 108, but consistency has remained an issue that has been particularly apparent given the work of their starting rotation, while they have been abhorrent versus left-handed pitching.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr’s struggles continue to be a major reason for the team’s underwhelming results, particularly given the fact that on a daily basis he’s occupying a critical spot in the order. Vladdy went 0-for-4 in the series opener but did put two balls in play with solid launch angles that held exit velocities of 107.1 mph and 111.1 mph, and was visibly frustrated after Juan Soto made the play on a lineout to left field.
After grinding his way through the ninth inning Monday, Louis Varland has now thrown 46 pitches over the last three days, and will likely be unavailable to close out Tuesday’s matchup if need be.
You can follow all of Nick’s bets on the Action Network App!
