NCAA National Championship Betting Preview (April 8): Purdue vs. UConn Odds

And then there were two. Following dominant Final Four performances that featured both teams winning by double digits, Connecticut and Purdue will play in the 2024 NCAA Tournament’s National Championship Game at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ on Monday night.

Connecticut will be looking to take home its second national title in a row, and its sixth overall, when it faces off against Purdue. The Boilermakers, meanwhile, will be trying to win their first national title in program history when they tip off against the Huskies.

The stage has been set for one of the most intriguing National Championship Game matchups in recent years. Let’s take a deep dive into the betting trends and some wagers to consider below.

Purdue vs. UConn Betting Odds

Purdue Moneyline Odds	+245 at Pinnacle
UConn Moneyline Odds	-263 at BetRivers
Over/Under	over 145.5 points at BetRivers (-109) under 146.0 points at DraftKings (-110)
Spread	UConn -6.0 (-109 at BetRivers)
Time/Date	April 8 at, 9:20 p.m. ET
TV	Broadcast: TSN Stream: TSN+

Betting UConn (36-3 SU, 27-12 ATS, 16-22-1 O/U)

The 2023 NCAA Tournament couldn’t have ended any better for Connecticut. As a No. 4 seed last March, they fought their way to the National Championship Game and won the national title against a tough No. 5-seeded San Diego State team 76-59. That epic run inevitably led to UConn being named one of the preseason betting favourites to win the 2024 National Championship, and it’s safe to say the Huskies have lived up to the hype.

UConn has put together an incredible 36-3 record this season, including an 18-2 record in the Big East, while winning both the Big East regular season title and the Big East Tournament title. The Huskies have also swept their way through their first give 2024 NCAA Tournament games while winning by an average margin of 25 points. They’ve been at or at least near the top of the AP Top 25 all year, and they’ve done it by being extremely dominant on both sides of the ball.

UConn, led by Tristen Newton’s 14.9 points per game, has one of the best scoring offences in the country, as the Huskies score 81.4 points per game (19th-best in the nation). The Huskies also have one of the stingiest defences in all the land, as they’ve allowed opposing teams to score just 63.5 points per game (6th-lowest in the country) on just 39.1% shooting from the field (4th-lowest in the country).

All of this has helped UConn assemble an amazing record against the spread throughout both the regular season, the Big East tournament, and the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies covered the spread in 20 of their 31 games in the regular season before covering it in 7 out of their 8 postseason games, including all five NCAA Tournament games thus far. The Huskies have also transformed into a team that has gone under the game total more often than not this season, including going under in each of its five NCAA Tournament matchups.

Betting Purdue (34-4 SU, 21-15-2 ATS, 23-15 O/U)

While Connecticut was enjoying one of the more magical runs in recent memory, the 2023 NCAA Tournament couldn’t have gone much worse for Purdue. The Boilermakers became just the second No. 1 seed in March Madness history to lose to a No. 16 seed when Purdue got upset by Fairleigh Dickinson 63-58 in the Round of 64 last year. It sent shockwaves throughout the college basketball world and had many people wondering whether or not Purdue would ever be able to get over the hump and become a true national title contender.

Purdue answered resoundingly from the start of the 2023-24 college basketball season. The Boilermakers rebounded from their loss to FDU by going 34-3 this year. They went 17-3 to win the Big Ten regular-season title, and while they came up short of winning the Big Ten Tournament title, they overcame last year’s demons by cruising through their first five games in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. They won these games by an average of about 19 points and, just like UConn, they’ve done it by blending great offence and defence.

Purdue, led by Zach Edey’s nation-leading 24.9 points per game, has been an even better offensive team than UConn this season, putting up an average of 82.9 points per game (12th-best in the country). They’ve also put forth respectable defensive performances, allowing opposing teams to shoot just 41.6% from the field (39th-lowest in the country). They’ve been one of the best rebounding teams in the nation as well, grabbing 40.8 rebounds per contest (6th-best in the country).

Purdue hasn’t been quite as efficient against the spread this season as UConn has. They went just 17-13-1 against the spread during the regular season. However, Purdue has been on fire against the spread as of late, having easily covered it in their five NCAA Tournament games. The Boilermakers have also been similar to the Huskies in that most of their games have gone under the game total in recent weeks. They’ve gone under in 4 of 5 NCAA Tournament games and 5 of 7 postseason games overall.

UConn vs. Purdue injury concerns

• The great news for college basketball fans is that they shouldn’t have to worry about injuries taking away from the hotly anticipated UConn vs. Purdue matchup. A big part of the reason why both of these teams have been able to dominate this March is because they’ve been very healthy. There aren’t any major injury concerns for either team, as they’re both heading into the National Championship Game on Monday night at full strength. The Huskies and Boilermakers are also deep teams with eight players averaging at least 10 minutes per game for each team.

UConn vs. Purdue betting trends

• Connecticut has gone 18-7 against the spread and won all 26 of the games in which the team put up over 68.8 points, which is the average number of points that Purdue has given up per game this season.
• Purdue has scored more than 63.5 points, which is the average number of points that UConn has given up per game this season, in 31 games this season and has gone 28-3 during them.
• UConn was favoured by less than 10 points just 16 times this season and went 12-4 against the spread during these games.
• Purdue was a betting underdog in just two games this season and won both of these matchups outright.

UConn vs. Purdue player prop trends

• Tristen Newton has been UConn’s leading scorer this season and should continue to lead the Huskies offence in the National Championship game. His line is at -115 to score more than 15.5 points in the matchup with Purdue.
• Zach Edey has averaged 28 points per game through Purdue’s first five NCAA Tournament games. His line is at -105 to score 25+ points in the game against UConn.
• Donovan Clingan has grabbed an average of 9 rebounds per game throughout the 2024 NCAA Tournament. His line is at +145 to grab 10 rebounds against Purdue.
• Lance Jones is shooting just under 39% from three for Purdue during the 2024 NCAA Tournament. His line is at +160 to make 3+ three-pointers against UConn.

UConn vs. Purdue bets to consider

• The game total opened up at 147.5 points at most sportsbooks, before dropping 1.5 points almost right away. UConn and Purdue have both gone under the game total early and often during the postseason. Throw in some championship game nerves, and we think this one should hit the under (146, -110) once again.
• Championship games are an opportunity for big players to define their legacies. If you believe in the big man, take Zach Edey to record 20+ points and 10+ rebounds (+350). The Purdue star will be playing in the final game with the team, and we’re backing him to put up his 30th double-double of the season.
• Tristen Newton has been key to UConn’s season offensively, and they’ll need him to come up big on Monday night. The Purdue defence will be looking to stop him shooting, so look for Newton to record over 7 assists (+165) as UConn tries to leverage their tournament experience into a national title.
• Purdue was one of the better first-half teams in the country this year and has averaged a 9.2-point lead at halftime this season. We like Purdue to lead at half-time (+200). The odds might suggest that UConn’s experience will help them hit the ground running, but we expect Purdue to come out swinging in search of a first-ever national title.