It’s time for a weekly breakdown of the NHL betting market, powered by NorthStar Bets.
Updated NHL betting trends
Hockey isn’t an easy sport to beat, and the table below proves it. There aren’t many obvious discrepancies to exploit, and any anomalies that exist typically defy the preferences of the betting public, who mainly wager on favourites in various ways. Favourites can indeed be solid bets, but solely sticking to betting on them is a recipe for disaster, considering how sportsbooks shade the odds to exploit those tendencies. This is particularly true when talking about the home side.
There are no “safe” bets in the NHL
Hockey pundits who dabble in sports betting would have you believe that betting big favourites to win in regulation is a risk-averse strategy, but the next time a self-proclaimed expert says that betting on a big favourite on the 60-minute line is “safer”, someone should explain to them that it’s not.
For example, one of my favourite betting-related stats from this season is that if a bettor had bet on big moneyline favourites (-190 or more) to win in regulation, they’d have gone 137-57-52 for -19.8 units year-to-date, but betting on those same big favourites to simply win straight up would have resulted in a net loss of -15.65 units.
Still a losing strategy, but not nearly as costly, because while big favourites might win at a 67% clip straight-up, their win rate drops to around 56% if we count overtime and shootouts as losses i.e. draws. This strategy is a long way from being a profitable one, especially if we include home teams, given that the regulation odds are -150 on average.
Updated NHL betting trends as of Wednesday, Feb. 21
Overall, only nine teams have been profitable moneyline bets year-to-date. And, those nine teams have all exceeded the expectations of the betting market in some way, even if they’ve just been playing over their heads. Home and road splits tell a bit of a different story, though, as 16 teams have made bettors money on the road, and 13 teams have been good enough to be profitable on home ice.
| Team | Road $ | Home $ | Total $ |
|---|---|---|---|
| STL | $6.40 | $8.04 | $14.44 |
| VAN | $2.03 | $7.46 | $9.49 |
| WSH | $4.17 | $4.59 | $8.76 |
| NYR | $2.31 | $5.32 | $7.64 |
| DET | $4.53 | $2.60 | $7.12 |
| WPG | $2.70 | $3.91 | $6.61 |
| NSH | $7.85 | -$3.28 | $4.56 |
| FLA | $2.64 | $1.63 | $4.27 |
| PHI | $6.88 | -$2.75 | $4.13 |
| TOR | $2.46 | -$2.51 | -$0.05 |
| TBL | -$3.36 | $3.26 | -$0.10 |
| EDM | -$1.52 | $1.12 | -$0.40 |
| VGK | -$4.03 | $3.48 | -$0.55 |
| BUF | $3.94 | -$5.19 | -$1.25 |
| ANA | $7.00 | -$9.14 | -$2.14 |
| MIN | $1.04 | -$3.64 | -$2.60 |
| DAL | $0.30 | -$3.10 | -$2.80 |
| CAR | -$1.96 | -$0.99 | -$2.94 |
| CGY | -$1.46 | -$1.74 | -$3.20 |
| COL | -$9.18 | $5.78 | -$3.40 |
| BOS | -$2.03 | -$1.71 | -$3.73 |
| SJS | -$6.70 | $1.22 | -$5.48 |
| LAK | $3.76 | -$9.34 | -$5.58 |
| MTL | -$0.72 | -$5.28 | -$6.00 |
| OTT | -$6.35 | -$0.71 | -$7.06 |
| NJD | $0.97 | -$8.48 | -$7.51 |
| SEA | -$3.83 | -$3.98 | -$7.81 |
| PIT | -$6.21 | -$1.81 | -$8.02 |
| CBJ | -$4.75 | -$3.33 | -$8.08 |
| ARI | -$10.44 | $1.50 | -$8.93 |
| NYI | -$3.29 | -$6.16 | -$9.44 |
| CHI | -$15.00 | -$0.22 | -$15.22 |
No team has been more profitable than the St. Louis Blues, though, and while most of the profit has come from home wins, they have done good on the road, too. St. Louis has won 14 of 28 games on the road (50%) and 10 of those wins came in regulation. The Blues will be in action on Tuesday when they take on the Jets in Winnipeg and NorthStar Bets currently lists the road team as a +170 underdog.
St. Louis Blues Moneyline
+170
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