Just like teams across the league, hockey bettors will be hard pressed to find a break in the action. So, were taking a look at how teams perform when they’re tired in this week’s article, powered by NorthStar Bets.
Updated NHL Betting Trends as of Feb. 13
When it comes to NHL betting, the fastest way to increase your domain knowledge is to compile odds from various markets and then compare them to the actual results. I’ve always got a handle on things like home-ice advantage and regulation win rate because I compile odds and notes daily. Anyone can do this, but it helps to know your way around a spreadsheet, like I do, because then you can automate the process and produce something like the table below.
How Do Tired Teams Perform?
On average, NHL teams play about a dozen sets of back-to-back games over the course of an 82-game regular season, and it’s important that hockey bettors understand this schedule phenomenon so I’ve compiled data to help you do just that. Paired with our weekly schedule breakdown, which highlights games where there’s a rest mismatch, this information can help you make more informed hockey bets throughout the rest of the regular season. By and large, it’s clear that NHL bettors overvalue rest, which is why we’re only focusing on the tired teams to encourage bettors to look at these situations a little differently.
| Team | B2B ROAD GP | B2B ROAD WIN% | B2B ROAD ODDS | B2B HOME GP | B2B HOME WIN% | B2B HOME ODDS | B2B GP TOTAL | B2B WIN% | B2B GAMES LEFT |
| ANA | 3 | 0.333 | 0.327 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 6 | 0.333 | 5 |
| ARI | 3 | 0.000 | 0.367 | 2 | 1.00 | 0.52 | 5 | 0.400 | 4 |
| BOS | 6 | 0.500 | 0.592 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 8 | 0.500 | 4 |
| BUF | 7 | 0.429 | 0.397 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 8 | 0.375 | 4 |
| CAR | 3 | 0.333 | 0.622 | 5 | 0.60 | 0.69 | 8 | 0.500 | 6 |
| CBJ | 5 | 0.200 | 0.348 | 2 | 1.00 | 0.36 | 7 | 0.429 | 6 |
| CGY | 5 | 0.000 | 0.506 | 0 | N/A | N/A | 5 | 0.000 | 3 |
| CHI | 5 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 8 | 0.000 | 4 |
| COL | 3 | 0.333 | 0.489 | 2 | 1.00 | 0.68 | 5 | 0.600 | 3 |
| DAL | 7 | 0.571 | 0.542 | 0 | N/A | N/A | 7 | 0.571 | 4 |
| DET | 3 | 0.667 | 0.386 | 3 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 6 | 0.667 | 4 |
| EDM | 3 | 0.667 | 0.572 | 0 | N/A | N/A | 3 | 0.667 | 7 |
| FLA | 3 | 0.667 | 0.565 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 4 | 0.750 | 4 |
| LAK | 3 | 0.000 | 0.487 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.59 | 7 | 0.143 | 5 |
| MIN | 5 | 0.400 | 0.414 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 8 | 0.250 | 7 |
| MTL | 4 | 0.250 | 0.391 | 6 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 10 | 0.100 | 3 |
| NJD | 3 | 0.000 | 0.477 | 7 | 0.14 | 0.64 | 10 | 0.100 | 6 |
| NSH | 3 | 1.000 | 0.556 | 2 | 1.00 | 0.53 | 5 | 1.000 | 4 |
| NYI | 5 | 0.000 | 0.470 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 6 | 0.000 | 4 |
| NYR | 4 | 1.000 | 0.544 | 5 | 1.00 | 0.63 | 9 | 1.000 | 3 |
| OTT | 2 | 0.500 | 0.388 | 3 | 0.67 | 0.53 | 5 | 0.600 | 9 |
| PHI | 5 | 0.600 | 0.409 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.53 | 8 | 0.500 | 4 |
| PIT | 2 | 0.500 | 0.507 | 5 | 1.00 | 0.52 | 7 | 0.857 | 5 |
| SEA | 1 | 0.000 | 0.350 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 3 | 0.333 | 4 |
| SJS | 5 | 0.200 | 0.282 | 3 | 0.67 | 0.25 | 8 | 0.375 | 5 |
| STL | 6 | 0.500 | 0.445 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.52 | 7 | 0.571 | 4 |
| TBL | 6 | 0.167 | 0.492 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.65 | 7 | 0.286 | 3 |
| TOR | 4 | 0.750 | 0.536 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.56 | 7 | 0.571 | 6 |
| VAN | 6 | 0.667 | 0.594 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 7 | 0.571 | 2 |
| VGK | 6 | 0.333 | 0.504 | 3 | 1.00 | 0.58 | 9 | 0.556 | 2 |
| WPG | 3 | 1.000 | 0.524 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 4 | 1.000 | 4 |
| WSH | 8 | 0.750 | 0.418 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 11 | 0.545 | 4 |
Key Takeaways
- The Chicago Blackhawks (0-8), Calgary Flames (0-5), and New York Islanders (0-6) have yet to win a game in the second half of a back-to-back situation.
- The Blackhawks are 2-22 in these situations since the start of the 2022-23 regular season, but it might come as a surprise to learn that the Tampa Bay Lightning are 5-22 in this situation since the start of the 2022-23 season. The Lightning have a 2-15 record on the road after playing the night before. Needless to say, this team needs a new backup goalie.
- Nashville (5-0) and Winnipeg (4-0) also perfect in the second half of back-to-backs this season, but it’s a smaller sample size. Meanwhile, the Arizona Coyotes are 0-9 as the road team in the second half of a back-to-back since the start of the 2022-23 season. The Minnesota Wild are 2-8 when playing two games in two days this season.
- Washington has won an impressive six out of eight games on the road after playing the day before thanks to strong goaltending from the tandem of Darcy Kuemper and Charlie Lindgren.
- New Jersey and Montreal are 1-10 after playing the day before. The Devils play the most back-to-back games (16) this season. The Canadiens play 15 back-to-back sets this season, which is tied with Washington for the most in the NHL.
- The Rangers are a perfect 9-0 in the second half of back-to-back situations this season. New York is 4-0 at home and 5-0 on the road. Polar opposites of their biggest rivals, the Islanders and Devils.
Nashville Predators Moneyline
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New Jersey is in action on Tuesday against Nashville and while neither starting goaltender has been confirmed, it does look like Juuse Saros will start for the Predators, and there’s a chance that we could see Akira Schmid in goal for the Devils as starting goalie Vitek Vanecek has been dealing with an illness and a lower body injury. Regardless, the Devils goaltending is a big reason why they have performed so poorly in back-to-back situations, and both Vanecek and Schmid have been subpar this season.
Jack Hughes has been back for a couple of games now, and the Devils looked great on Monday against the Kraken, but unlike Seattle, Nashville is a tough opponent, with quality goaltending, and my handicap says the Predators should be a bigger favorite, as they’ve got a 57 percent chance of extending handing the Devils a loss if Saros is between the pipes. The 28-year-old is having a down year, but I don’t doubt that he’s still an above average goaltender and that gives the the home team an edge over a tired Devils team.
