Edmonton and Dallas will meet in the Western Conference Final. This is the first time in 21 years that the Oilers and Stars will meet in the playoffs. The two teams met in six out of seven seasons between 1997 and 2003, with the Oilers winning the first series, but losing the next five. Edmonton currently has the third-best odds of winning the Stanley Cup at NorthStar Bets.
Handicapping the Stars (60-35 SU, 41-54 ATS, 47-47 O/U)
Dallas has reached the Western Conference Final for the first time since 2020, when they lost in six games in the Stanley Cup Final against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Dallas Stars Series Winner
The Stars won the Central Division this season with 113 points and needed 13 games to get here. The Stars defeated the Vegas Golden Knights 4-3 in round one and then beat the Colorado Avalanche in six games. Given that Vegas and Colorado were the last two Stanley Cup champions, it makes sense that Dallas (+225) is now the favourite to win it all this season.
Jake Oettinger is a co-favourite (+475) to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as the most valuable player in the postseason after posting a .918 save percentage in the first two rounds. Still, for my money, Miro Heiskanen has been the Stars MVP.
Per Evolving Hockey, Oettinger has saved the Stars approximately 3.5 goals above expected, and he was at his best (.923 save percentage) in round two versus Colorado, a team that scored more goals than Edmonton in the regular season. However, Heiskanen has been a horse, playing roughly 28 minutes per game. The 24-year-old defender leads the Stars with five goals and eight assists in 13 playoff games.
Of course, forward Roope Hintz won’t be available for Game 1, which is a big loss, but the Stars have plenty of offensive weapons, like Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, and Matt Duchene, to name a few.
Handicapping the Oilers (57-37 SU, 41-53 ATS, 42-48 O/U)
Edmonton returns to Western Conference final for the second time in three seasons, but they have yet to win a game at this stage of the playoffs. The Oilers were swept 4-0 by the eventual Stanley Cup champions, the Colorado Avalanche, in 2022.
Florida Panthers Stanley Cup Winner
It took Edmonton 12 games to make it to this point. The Oilers defeated the Los Angeles Kings in five games, but it took seven games for them to dispatch the Vancouver Canucks in round two.
According to Evolving Hockey, the Oilers had the best even-strength expected goals share during the regular season. Edmonton also finished among the top five in even-strength shot attempt percentage, goal share, and goals per 60 minutes.
The Oilers will be in tough against the Stars, though, as Dallas ranked just as highly as Edmonton in those categories. Same goes for special teams. Per Meghan Chayka of Stathletes, the Oilers and Stars rank 1st and 2nd, respectively, in expected goals and scoring chances (per two minutes) on the power play this postseason.
Edmonton has more star power, thanks to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. However, Dallas still scored more even-strength goals than Edmonton did during the regular season because they are a deeper team overall.
Stars vs. Oilers Series Prediction
Pundits seem to be dismissing the Oilers heading into the Western Conference final. For example, 16 of 21 respondents at ESPN picked the Stars to win the series. Dallas does deserve to be a favourite, but according to our model, the Stars have a 57.5 percent chance of moving on to the Stanley Cup Final.
In other words, Dallas isn’t as big of a favourite as the experts suggest. This series should be on the longer side, with the most likely outcome being Stars in seven games. That aligns closely with how oddsmakers at NorthStar Bets have handicapped the series. Dallas is currently listed as a -134 series favourite. Check out a breakdown of the series probability distribution below.
| Team | 4 Games | 5 Games | 6 games | 7 Games | Win Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | 7.8% | 15.8% | 16.3% | 17.6% | 57.5% |
| Edmonton | 4.8% | 9.5% | 14.6% | 13.6% | 42.5% |
Edmonton Oilers Series Winner
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