In this article, we’ll outline our best Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres prediction for Game 2, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
It seemed logical to expect that this series would provide a much different test to the young Canadiens than they faced in Round 1, and that it would be a different-looking matchup stylistically. Montreal fell flat in Game 1, in a matchup where it felt as though Buffalo was able to dictate play and get to its game more consistently.
The Canadiens are currently slightly larger underdogs than they were in Game 1, while the total has decreased a hair with over 5.5 goals now priced at -120 after closing at -125 in the series opener.
After losing our pick on Cole Caufield to record over 3.5 shots on goal in Game 1, our picks from Canadiens guides this postseason drop to 5-1 and +7.56 units. We will try to get right with a pick on the total in this matchup.
Canadiens vs Sabres Game 2 Prediction
Over 5.5 Goals -120 (Play to -125)
Over 5.5 goals
The Canadiens checked the Lightning’s top stars quite effectively at even strength, while the Lightning’s bottom-six failed to make much of an impact offensively. The Canadiens allowed only 2.39 xGA/60 in Round 1 and, on average, did a fairly strong job of limiting the amount of full-fledged defensive breakdowns.
While it does seem logical that Montreal will attempt to get back to the game plan that allowed it to sneak past the Lightning as heavy underdogs, most observers also expected this to be a much different series stylistically and that take did seem to be accurate based on how Game 1 played out.
Buffalo plays a much more open style than the Lightning and seemingly holds vastly superior offensive depth based on the middle-six contributions it is getting from skaters such as Josh Doan, Ryan McLeod, and Zach Benson. It generally has not proven to hold the same level of defensive upside as the Lightning but makes up for that and then some based on its ability to drive play the other way.
So while the Canadiens had a lackluster performance in Game 1 and will look to make this into more of a tight-checking affair because of the characteristics of the Sabres, a total of 5.5 seems to be a little low, and I believe this is a good spot to bet on the idea that at least the early portion of this series will be fairly eventful.
Canadiens vs. Sabres Odds
| Canadiens moneyline odds | +115 |
| Sabres moneyline odds | -135 |
| Puck Line odds | Canadiens +1.5 (-225), Sabres -1.5 (+185) |
| Series odds | Canadiens (+180), Sabres (-220) |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Montreal Canadiens
While you have to credit the Sabres’ performance, it did feel as though the Canadiens were simply a little flat in the series opener after grinding their way past the Lightning in a hard-fought seven-game series. It doesn’t feel as though there is much panic entering this game from the Canadiens, just a simple awareness that they need to establish their game more effectively Friday.
The Canadiens won the highest percentage of puck battles of any team in Round 1, and felt extremely determined from wire-to-wire. That strength did not come to fruition on Wednesday, as the Sabres felt like the team with more jump all night long.
This could prove to be a more difficult series for the Canadiens’ depth lines to have as much success as they did in Round 1, particularly from a defensive perspective. Buffalo feels like a more gettable side in terms of generating offence, but allowing only 2.25 goals against per game like we saw in Round 1 may be unrealistic.
The Canadiens will likely need more from their dynamic duo of Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield in order to come back and win this series. They spent a lot of time against elite defensive units last round, and it seemed reasonable to believe that in what would likely be a more wide-open, fast-paced series, they would offer a greater offensive impact at even strength.
That was not the case in Game 1, as Suzuki and Caufield combined for just one power-play point, while the top line of Caufield, Suzuki, and Slafkovsky held a 32.3% expected goal share across 12 minutes of five-on-five play.
Caufield has just one goal this postseason after recording 51 in the regular season, and he’s surely starting to feel the mounting pressure to break through offensively.
It wasn’t a banner evening for Jakub Dobes in Game 1, as he made an eighth straight start for the first time in his career. He now holds a +3.5 GSAx and a .910 save percentage this postseason.
Caufield to score
Betting Buffalo Sabres
Though the Boston Bruins were able to stretch the series to six games, it always felt as though the Sabres were the superior side and not at a legitimate risk of losing the series. Buffalo has generated 4.18 xGF/60 this postseason, which is the second highest mark of any team.
Jeremy Swayman played quite well in Round 1, but Buffalo still managed to score an average of 3.33 goals per game, and was noted by several Sabres skaters that it felt like the Bruins were mainly just trying to keep games close by playing a low-risk, low-reward style.
Buffalo has also only allowed 2.84 xGA/60 this postseason, which is a notable improvement from the regular season. The one caveat to that note is that the talent of the Bruins’ offensive core seemed vastly overrated entering the postseason, but it is still a convincing improvement from a side that strives to win with a more open style than many other teams still in the mix.
Alex Lyon is expected to get the start in goal. He holds a +5.5 GSAx rating and .950 save percentage in five appearances this postseason.
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