NHL Betting Preview (June 2): Stars vs. Oilers Game 6 Predictions

Joe Pavelski #16 of the Dallas Stars is knocked down in front of the goal of Stuart Skinner #74 of the Edmonton Oilers during the first period in Game Five of the Western Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at American Airlines Center on May 31, 2024 in Dallas, Texas.

The Edmonton Oilers have a massive opportunity on Sunday night. A win would send them to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 2006 and keep hope for a Canadian Stanley Cup victor alive for another round. The opposing Dallas Stars are not a team that will be taken down easily, however, and they will surely play desperate hockey with their backs against the wall. Let’s take a look at what’s at stake in tonight’s Game 6.

Bet on Stars vs. Oilers GM 1

EDM -135
DAL +115

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The moneyline favourites are the Oilers, coming in between -135 and -145 on the top Canadian Sportsbooks.

Stars vs. Oilers Best Odds

Stars Moneyline Odds+122 @ Pinnacle
Oilers Moneyline Odds-135 @ Sports interaction
Puckline oddsOilers -1.5 (+197) @ Pinnacle
Stars +1.5 (-213) @ Proline+
Series oddsOilers -350, Stars +275 @ Bet365
Total Over 5.5 goals (+102) @ Pinnacle
Under 5.5 goals (-112) @ Proline+
Time/DateJune 2, 8:00 p.m. ET
TVBroadcast: CBC, Sportsnet, TVA Sports
Stream: Sportsnet+
(How to watch the NHL in Canada?)

Last Matchup

Friday night was a good night for the Oilers, but even more so, a shockingly tough night for the Stars. Many expected a strong response to Wednesday’s Game 4 from Dallas, but instead, they struggled to generate much of anything from the start, taking just ten shots on goal in the first two periods.

Meanwhile, the Oilers got to quick work building their buffer. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins cooked on the powerplay, scoring his first of the night with Ryan Suter in the box in the first period and his second with Miro Heiskanen penalized in the middle frame. Four minutes later, Philip Broberg made the most of his recent opportunity to join the lineup by scoring a slapshot off a faceoff play, ripping a screened point shot off the post and Jake Oettinger.

The Stars put more pressure on in the third, but by that point, the hole became insurmountable. Wyatt Johnson broke Stuart Skinner’s shutout bid with six minutes to go, but that’s as close as the game got.

Betting Dallas Stars (10-8 SU, 7-11 ATS, 7-10 o/u)

Dallas head coach Peter DeBoer was not a fan of his team’s effort being challenged. When asked about the Stars’ second period was “lifeless” in response to Edmonton’s two quick goals – at one point going nearly ten minutes without a shot – DeBoer snapped back.

“You know, you can sit here and question our character if you want. You haven’t been around all year. I haven’t seen you here all year,” DeBoer began, going further when the reporter denied that he was questioning character. “Well you are, that’s what you’re doing. So, you know, I’m not gonna do it. You go ahead and write whatever the [expletive] you want.”

That’s a tough quote following a tough loss. The question was definitely pointed, and a coach defending their team in a moment like that isn’t uncommon and can be a big positive. But generally, you’d prefer that the defence comes through uplifting and showing a vote of confidence for his players rather than shooting down the premise of the question and the credibility of its asker. Actions will speak louder than words tonight, but it does give you a bit of wonder about where the focus is in a moment of adversity.

Betting Edmonton Oilers (11-6 SU, 6-11 ATS, 9-8 o/u)

On the flip side, focusing on where their opponents have gone wrong, and where they might continue to go wrong, is unfair to the Oilers, who haven’t gotten themselves to within one win of the main stage by everyone in front of them rolling over.

This is a team that has refused to back down, whether it’s from their 2-9-1 start in the regular season and closing the year as one of the league’s best teams, or being down 2-0 in a 2-1 series early in Game 4 and then scoring the next eight goals. Their ability to shrug off adversity and respond in a big way this year has been commendable and has helped them earn their spot here. Their star players have shown up in big ways. Their defence, even if they have their warts within their own zone, have been excellent at escaping it. Stuart Skinner has had a roller coaster of a season and playoffs, but looks to be hot once more.

The team now has two shots at getting the job done here. In both previous rounds, once they got to three wins, they got to four the game after. Given the quality of the team on the other side, it would be huge if they repeat that now. The last they want is to give Dallas a seed of hope and themselves a seed of doubt.

Projected Stars vs. Oilers Lines

Today’s Dallas Stars LinesToday’s Edmonton Oilers Lines
Jason Robertson – Wyatt Johnson – Logan Stankoven
Mason Marchment – Matt Duchene – Joe Pavelski
Jamie Benn – Tyler Seguin – Evgenii Dadonov
Radek Faksa – Sam Steel – Craig Smith

Thomas Harley – Miro Heiskanen
Esa Lindell – Chris Tanev
Ryan Suter – Alex Petrovic

Starting In Goal
Jake Oettinger
PO: 10-6-2, 2.19 GAA, 0.917 SV%
Season: 35-14-4, 2.72 GAA, 0.905 SV%
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman
Ryan McLeod – Leon Draisaitl – Corey Perry
Evander Kane – Adam Henrique – Dylan Holloway
Mattias Janmark – Sam Carrick – Connor Brown

Mattias Ekholm – Evan Bouchard
Darnell Nurse – Brett Kulak
Philip Broberg – Cody Ceci

Starting In Goal
Stuart Skinner
PO: 10-4-1, 2.59 GAA, 0.890 SV%
Season: 36-16-5, 2.62 GAA, 0.905 SV%

As it stands, we don’t expect much in the name of lineup changes from either team.

Connor McDavid over 3.5 shots on goal


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Stars vs. Oilers Injury Concerns

The injury block remains the same as it has been all series. Chris Tanev managed to play through his lower-body injury in Game 5, drawing in for 19:12 of ice time, fourth on the Stars.

  • The Oilers are 6-4 against the Stars in their last ten games against each other, going back to December 2022. They’ve got the same edge against the puckline, and the total goals line is split evenly with five unders and five overs.
  • Overall, Edmonton is 6-4 in their last ten games, with a 4-6 record against the puckline. Against the total goals line, they’ve had three overs, six unders, and a push.
  • Dallas, on the other hand, is also 6-4 in their last ten, with a 6-4 record against the puck line. They’ve had four overs and six unders against the total goals line.
  • Evan Bouchard has been the Oilers’ most productive player over the last ten games, with four goals and ten assists from the blue line. His assist total also co-leads the team, split with Connor McDavid.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins leads the Oilers in goals in that stretch, with five, while Zach Hyman leads in shots with 45. Bouchard, Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid, and Leon Draisaitl are above the point-per-game mark across this run of games.
  • Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen, and Jamie Benn co-lead the Stars in points across their last ten games, with ten apiece. Heiskanen, Tyler Seguin, and Wyatt Johnson co-lead the team in goals with five, while Benn has the most assists with eight. Seguin leads the team in shots on goal with 32.

Stars vs. Oilers Predictions

  • When in doubt on a potential elimination night, look to the captains to step up for their teams. For Edmonton, that’s obviously the unquestionable Connor McDavid. His best value for any anytime goal is on FanDuel (+160), for an assist on Pinnacle (+152), for over 1.5 points on DraftKings (-130), and over 3.5 shots on goal on bet365 (+100). The shot and assist props would be most interesting to me.
  • For Dallas, you’re looking for Jamie Benn to lead his team. His best anytime goal price is a whopping +420 on FanDuel. His best value for an assist is on bet365 (+185), for over 0.5 points on FanDuel (+108), and his over 1.5 shots on goal on Betano (-154).
  • While I think Dallas puts up a good fight, and while this pick would spoil my playoff bracket once and for all, I really do wonder if the tide has fully turned on this series and would lean towards the Edmonton moneyline (-135 on Sports Interaction) tonight. They’ve got the momentum, they’ve got home ice, they closed out on both prior 3-X opportunities in these playoffs, and Dallas seems both flustered and a bit beat up. If they don’t close tonight, this series becomes a massive wildcard, but it feels like they’ve got a great opportunity here.

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