The Toronto Maple Leafs shook some pressure off their back with a strong finish to their West Coast road trip on Sunday, but still have their share of questions surrounding them. Unfortunately for them, this week doesn’t get much easier for them, as they face one of the league’s hottest teams, the Winnipeg Jets in a home-and-home mini-series. Tonight, they kick things off as hosts, hoping to extend a winning streak against their Manitoba frenemies.
Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Jets
WPG +110
TOR -130
The Maple Leafs are moderate home favourites, with moneyline odds of -130.
Maple Leafs vs. Jets odds
| Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds | -130 |
| Jets Moneyline Odds | +110 |
| Puck Line odds | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+185), Jets +1.5 (-225) |
| Total Goals line | 6.0 goals (over -115, under -105) |
| Time/Date | Jan. 24, 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: Sportsnet, TVA Sports (French) Stream: Sportsnet+ (How to watch the NHL in Canada?) |
All odds courtesy of 
About the Maple Leafs (23-14-8 SU, 14-31 ATS, 24-20-1 o/u)
The Maple Leafs responded well to a lot of concerns on Sunday. After a tough 6-4 loss to Vancouver which re-opened frustrations about team defence, and no doubt frustrated them when they saw the 46-21 shot count in their favour afterwards, they took their talents slightly south to Seattle and produced a much stingier effort.
Toronto got themselves on the board early as Auston Matthews scored his league-leading 38th goal seven minutes into the first period. Nick Robertson, who drew in after several games in the press box, buried a one-timer early in the second to give the Leafs some wiggle room. They proved to need it, as Jordan Eberle brought Seattle within one before the period closed.
The third period saw the Leafs lock things down, going over half the period before giving up their first shot. That first shot was a mean scoring chance, but Ilya Samsonov made a massive save that felt a lot like the netminder of last year, not the one who has been struggling in 2023/24. It was a great night for him which has many hoping he’s ready to turn the corner and return to form. Jake McCabe added an empty netter to seal the game.
Amid all the drama, Toronto was able to split their road trip with two wins and two losses, with the defeats coming against two red-hot teams in Edmonton and Vancouver. It’s not perfect, but it’s progress for a team going through some struggles right now.
About the Jets (30-11-4 SU, 26-19-1 ATS, 15-24-6 o/u)
The most noteworthy streak in the NHL this year finally ended this week, as Winnipeg’s run of games with three or fewer goals allowed was halted at 34. In a league where the average game contains about six and a half goals, you can imagine that keeping the against number under four is good for a team’s record, and was it ever – the Jets began the streak at 4-4-2, and ended it at 30-10-4, creating a 26-6-2 run that catapulted them into the President’s Trophy race.
The Boston Bruins, also in said race, were the spoilers, beating them 4-1 on Monday with the streak-buster coming via an empty-netter. To their credit, this showed the Jets cared more about a long-shot chance at a comeback than they did about prolonging a trivia fact.
Generally, getting beyond even five games without getting at least a little shelled is already pretty good, with ten games being excellent. 34 was among the longest in the history of the league, a testament to their stingy defence and the incredible goaltending they’ve been getting from Connor Hellebuyck and Laurent Brossoit.
Last Matchup
These two teams last faced each other almost exactly a year ago. Toronto was the home team in this one too, and they made the most of the advantage, comfortably beating the Jets thanks to an explosive second period. Auston Matthews opened the scoring eight seconds into the middle frame, and followed up with a second tally three and a half minutes later. Mitch Marner stretched the lead out with a shorthanded goal with six minutes remaining in the second, and while Kyle Connor eventually got the Jets on the board in the third, Mark Giordano was able to close it out with an empty netter.
Promising for Leafs fans tonight: Ilya Samsonov stopped 37 of 38 in the win.
Projected Lineups
| Today’s Toronto Maple Leafs Lineup | Today’s Winnipeg Jets Lineup |
|---|---|
| Forwards Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner Pontus Holmberg – John Tavares – William Nylander Nicholas Robertson – Max Domi – Calle Jarnkrok Noah Gregor – David Kampf – Bobby McMann Defence Morgan Rielly – TJ Brodie Mark Giordano – Timothy Liljegren Simon Benoit – Conor Timmins Starting In Goal Ilya Samsonov 6-3-6, 3.69 GAA, 0.866 SV% | Forwards Kyle Connor – Adam Lowry – Alex Iafallo Cole Perfetti – Vladislav Namestnikov – Nikolaj Ehlers Nino Niederreiter – Dominic Toninato – Mason Appleton Morgan Barron – Rasmus Kupari – Axel Jonsson-Fjallby Defence Josh Morrissey – Dylan DeMelo Brenden Dillon – Neal Pionk Dylan Samberg – Nate Schmidt Starting In Goal Laurent Brossoit 7-3-1, 2.18 GAA, 0.923 SV% |
Tyler Bertuzzi will miss tonight’s game as he and his wife expect the birth of their child. As such, Bobby McMann returns to the Leafs lineup without Nick Robertson coming back out for him.
Not a lot is usual on the Winnipeg end of things – Laurent Brossoit coming in might feel like the Jets aren’t giving Toronto their best, but Connor Hellebuyck will no doubt start in the grudge match later in the week and Brossoit has strung together a nice season of his own.
Auston Matthews to score a goal
-115
Key Injuries
On the Toronto front, Ryan Reaves has been activated from the injured reserve after a few days of drama surrounding his status. He won’t be drawing in tonight, though maybe we’ll see him in the road game on Saturday given his Manitoba roots.
The Leafs get some further favour with the Jets confirming that Gabriel Vilardi and Mark Scheifele, arguably the team’s two best centres, are day-to-day with injuries. David Gustafsson is also on IR with a lower-body injury.
Betting Trends
- The Maple Leafs have won seven of the last ten games between these two teams, going back to March 2021. They’ve also carried the puck line in seven of ten, with the total goals over being hit five times. Notably, they’ve got a three-game winning streak going against the Jets.
- On their own, the Leafs are 5-5 in their last 10, 3-7 against the puck line, and have hit the total goals over five times.
- Winnipeg, as mentioned before, has been much hotter in terms of the money line, going 8-2 in their last ten games. These have been low-scoring games, so the puck line (5-5 in their last ten, 1-4 in their last 5) and total goals lines (1-7-2 in their last 10, 0-4-1 in their last 5) are much less favourable.
Player Prop Trends
- Auston Matthews’ stick remains molten with nine goals in his last ten games and five in his last five. He also leads the team in shots on goal over both spans, with 23 in his last five and 46 in his last ten.
- Mitch Marner is the Toronto point leader over their last ten games, with 13 points earned through six goals and seven assists.
- On Winnipeg’s end, despite their winning ways, the team hasn’t been all that productive offensively. Nikolaj Ehlers leads the group in goals (5), points (4) and shots (38) over the last ten games, and just five skaters dressing tonight have even reached five points in their last ten.
Wagers To Consider
- Auston Matthews has been such an automatic scorer of late that the odds on an anytime tally are becoming increasingly less valuable, but it’s still hard to say no to him at -115. If you want to lean into process rather than result, his shots-on-goal line sits at 4.5 for a +110 payout, though he’s been shooting at a bit under that average clip over the past few weeks.
- I like this as the night where John Tavares finally snaps his eight-game point drought. You can get him for an anytime goal for +200, and there is a boosted same-game parlay that packages that goal with a William Nylander assist and a Leafs win at +500 (up from +425).
- The Jets will have to rely even more on Nik Ehlers tonight with Perfetti and Scheifele out, so I’d give a good hard look at that 3.5 shots on goal line (+120).
