NHL Betting Preview (March 19): Flyers vs. Maple Leafs Odds

Less than a week after a 6-2 Toronto win, the Maple Leafs are back in Philadelphia to take on the Flyers for a third and final time this year. The potential for a season-series sweep is on the table, as the Flyers have been one of their most vulnerable opponents not just this year, but over the last several. At the same time, pride is on the line after the blowout win, and John Tortorella is back behind the Flyers bench, so this could have the potential to be closer, if not a rare Philly upset. Let’s dive into what’s at stake tonight.

Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Flyers

TOR -135
PHI +115

The Maple Leafs are road favourites, coming in at -135 on the moneyline at bet365.

Maple Leafs vs. Flyers odds

Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds-135
Flyers Moneyline Odds+115
Puckline oddsMaple Leafs -1.5 (+180), Flyers +1.5 (-220)
Total6.5 goals (over +100, under -120)
Time/DateMarch 19, 7:07 p.m. ET
TVBroadcast: TSN
Stream: Sportsnet+
(How to watch the NHL in Canada?)

All odds courtesy of

About the Maple Leafs (38-19-9 SU, 24-42 ATS, 35-29-2 o/u)

As always, all it took to raise tensions in Toronto was a single loss. The Maple Leafs may have wins in 12 of their last 16, and their losses may have come against the defending champions and two Presidents’ Trophy threats, but that hasn’t stopped the gears from spinning because of how they lost on Saturday against the Hurricanes.

After a quiet first period, Toronto exploded for a three-goal lead in the second period, getting tallies from John Tavares, William Nylander, and Nick “automatic goal after a scratch” Robertson. Carolina pushed back with a pair of their own, including a dying-seconds power-play goal from Seth Jarvis, but Toronto kept the lead going into the third. They even built it back up to a pair with an insurance tally from David Kampf, but 14 minutes later, Kampf would go to the penalty box following a controversial hooking penalty. While there, Sebastian Aho scored to close the gap, and with the team’s defensive forwards tired following the penalty kill, he scored again with seven seconds to go. Overtime solved nothing and in the shootout, Jake Guentzel scored the lone goal, giving the Hurricanes the win.

The loss has restored concerns about Toronto wasting leads, though it was the Leafs’ first blown lead loss in over a month and their first one involving a multi-goal lead in nearly two. As silly as that angle is, though, it shows how thin the margin of error is against top teams. Soft call or not, you can’t put yourself in a position to get burned in the dying minutes of a one or two-goal game against a championship contender, no matter how well you’ve been playing yourself. Nevertheless, the blue and white look to shake that mistake off tonight and find a better result.

About the Flyers (34-26-8 SU, 42-26 ATS, 29-36-3 o/u)

Not a whole lot has happened with the Flyers since the last time we were in this spot. Flyers head coach John Tortorella is back in his lead spot following his suspension, meaning we probably won’t get another argument between Rocky Thompson and Sheldon Keefe about power play deployment etiquette. Mascot Gritty might be at large following the disappearance of thousands of Jaromir Jagr bobbleheads in rival Pittsburgh. Beyond that, the Flyers have played just one game since they’ve faced Toronto, which saw them do the Leafs no favours in a loss to the Boston Bruins.

If anything, they did nothing but provide false hope, going up 2-1 in the second period only to concede four in a row. They did score three goals in the final six minutes to make the game interesting, but couldn’t force the Bruins into overtime. At the end of the day, the Flyers were the clear underdogs in this game and a win would’ve realistically been more of a pleasant surprise than an expectation, but it still would’ve been helpful to Toronto’s potential playoff seeding if they pulled it off.

Last Matchup

It’s been a whole five days since these two teams faced each other, and it was a result that Toronto easily took. Tyler Bertuzzi got the party started just two minutes into the first period, scoring his 13th goal of the year and continuing his hot streak. Pontus Holmberg and Timothy Liljegren were soon to follow, giving Toronto a 3-0 lead in the opening twenty. Owen Tippett responded with a power-play marker to start the second period, and the game got a bit tense for a little while after, but another trio of goals from Toronto in the third put it out of reach.

Projected Lineups

Today’s Toronto Maple Leafs LinesToday’s Philadelphia Flyers Lines
Tyler Bertuzzi – Auston Matthews – Pontus Holmberg
Bobby McMann – Max Domi – William Nylander
Matthew Knies – John Tavares – Nick Robertson
Connor Dewar – David Kampf – Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly – TJ Brodie
Simon Benoit – Jake McCabe
Joel Edmundson – Timothy Liljegren

Starting In Goal
Ilya Samsonov
9-7-1, 2.89 GAA, 0.911 SV%
Owen Tippett – Morgan Frost – Travis Konecny
Joel Farabee – Scott Laughton – Bobby Brink
Tyson Foerster – Ryan Poehling – Garnet Hathaway
Nicolas Deslauriers – Noah Cates – Olle Lyksell

Cam York – Travis Sanheim
Marc Staal – Ronnie Attard
Egor Zamula – Erik Johnson

Starting In Goal
Samuel Ersson
19-14-5, 2.67 GAA, 0.898 SV%

Toronto isn’t expected to change too much tonight, with the only real move coming on the blue line. A slight shuffle of the pairs comes as Ilya Lyubushkin gets a night off (more on that in a moment), and Simon Benoit returns in his normal spot with Jake McCabe. TJ Brodie goes back to playing with Morgan Rielly as a result.

A serious shock came at Flyers morning skate this morning when it was confirmed that the entire line of Sean Couturier, Cam Atkinson, and Denis Gurianov will be scratched tonight. Couturier is the most notable name here, as the team’s captain, but zooming in to recent play makes it a bit more clear how he ends up here, with points in just two of his last 14 games and a -13 rating. Atkinson, the team’s second-highest-paid forward behind Couturier, is pointless in his last sixteen, and Gurianov has yet to contribute since being acquired by the Flyers at the trade deadline.

John Tavares over 2.5 shots on goal


Key Injuries

The Maple Leafs are still waiting for better word on Mitch Marner’s high ankle sprain, with the most recent update coming in at slower progress than expected. Calle Jarnkrok remains out for the foreseeable future, as does Mark Giordano. Ilya Lyubushkin is out with an illness.

For the Flyers, everything remains the same as last time. Rasmus Ristolainen, Jamie Drysdale, and Nick Seeler are all out with week-to-week injuries, which is a big blow to their blue line and might explain the 12 goals against in their last two games.

  • The Maple Leafs are 8-2 against the Flyers in their last 10 games against each other, dating back to November 2019. Toronto have won the last eight matchups in a row. The puckline is 6-4 in Toronto’s favour, and the total goals have landed over the line in seven of those 10 games.
  • The Maple Leafs are 6-4 in their last 10, and 4-6 against the puckline. The total goals line is evenly split with five overs and five under. Toronto is currently hot as a favourite, winning eight of their last 10 games when favoured on the moneyline.
  • The Flyers are 4-6 in their last 10, with a 5-5 record against the puckline. Six of their last 10 games have exceeded the total goals line. Home ice hasn’t treated them well in their last three games (1-2 straight-up, 0-3 puckline), nor has being the underdog (0-3 straight-up, 1-2 puckline).
  • The Leafs still have just one point-per-game player across their last 10 games, and that player is William Nylander, with five goals, a team-leading seven assists, and 12 points. Tyler Bertuzzi leads the group with six goals in that stretch, while Auston Matthews leads them in shots on goal with 38.
  • Matthews is as cold as a player like him can get in that stretch, putting up three goals and three assists. For most, that would be a pretty good 10 games. For him, it feels like he’s been off the board entirely. Not super relevant to the lines, but he’s interestingly got the most blocked shots of any forward in that 10-game stretch, with 14.
  • Philadelphia’s most productive skater in their last 10 games is actually on their blue line, with Cam York leading the way. He has three goals and shares the team lead with six assists.
  • Tyson Foerster leads the Flyers with six goals in their last 10 games, while Morgan Frost is the other skater with six assists. Leading Philadelphia in shots on goal in that stretch is Owen Tippett, with 34.

Wagers To Consider

  • Today’s Auston Matthews anytime goals odds are set at -125. Matthews has four goals in two games against the Flyers this year, and while he’s been cold compared to his standard over the past couple of weeks, it’s only a matter of time before the league’s best scorer heats up again.
  • John Tavares didn’t get on the scoresheet in last week’s game between these two teams, but he was excellent, taking eight shots on goal and controlling about two-thirds of the shot attempts when he was on the ice. I expect positive momentum from him again tonight – strongly consider his shots on goal prop at -150 for over 2.5, and maybe take him for a goal (+160) or a point (-120).
  • I recommended Owen Tippett for his shot prop last game and he was arguably Philadelphia’s best skater, leading with four shots on goal, scoring one of Philadelphia’s two goals, and also controlling about two-thirds of the shot attempts when he was on the ice. If you want to double dip, his shot prop is now at -110 rather than +110, so there’s less value. I’d maybe lean in the direction of a power-play point at a meaty +340.

Get Started With $100 Bet Credits from bet365!

If you’ve been checking out Canada Sports Betting’s articles but haven’t gotten into the game yourself, bet365 is offering $100 in bet credits to new members! Make a $10 deposit, place a qualifying bet of $1 using your deposited funds, and win or lose, you’ll get $100 in bet credits! Click here to claim this offer with bet365 and get started!