NHL Betting Preview (March 14): Flyers vs. Maple Leafs Odds

After a four-day break, the Toronto Maple Leafs are back in action, looking to make their final push for points ahead of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. With a little under 20 games to go, the blue and white are 12 points back of the top spot in the Atlantic Division – a tough task, but still one to aspire to. Thursday, they’ll try to get two of those points against the Philadelphia Flyers, a team they’ve had a lot of success against over the years.

Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Flyers

TOR -135
PHI +115

The Maple Leafs are slight road favourites, coming in at -135 on the moneyline at bet365.

Maple Leafs vs. Flyers odds

Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds-135
Flyers Moneyline Odds+115
Puckline oddsMaple Leafs -1.5 (+180), Flyers +1.5 (-220)
Total6.0 goals (over -120, under +100)
Time/DateMarch 14, 7:30 p.m. ET
TVBroadcast: TSN4
Stream: Sportsnet+
(How to watch the NHL in Canada?)

All odds courtesy of

About the Maple Leafs (36-19-8 SU, 22-41 ATS, 33-28-2 o/u)

The Maple Leafs haven’t played since Saturday night, when they had a close call against the Montreal Canadiens. It’s usually a tough night when they head to the Bell Centre, even when victorious, and this was no exception as the Habs jumped ahead just 38 seconds after the opening faceoff. Toronto battled back, however, with Bobby McMann and Max Domi flipping the deficit into a lead in the second, and after Alex Newhook gave Montreal some life in the third, captain John Tavares pulled the team ahead once and for all with six and a half minutes remaining. It was tougher than the standings showed, but hardly unfamiliar, and a well-earned pair of points against a longtime rival.

Since then, a bit more good news has come out of Toronto, with the announcement of a two-year contract extension for forward Bobby McMann. The 27-year-old McMann, who is playing his first full season in the NHL this year, turned a slow start to the year around with a hat trick against St. Louis a month ago and went on a six-game, 10-point tear after that. While the production hasn’t kept up, he’s still generating shots and throwing hits from the cusps of the lineup, which helps merit his new $1.35 million price tag.

About the Flyers (34-24-8 SU, 39-27 ATS, 27-36-3 o/u)

As mentioned last time these two teams faced off, the Flyers have been one of the more pleasant surprises in the NHL this year, bracing for a rebuild and suffering many hurdles along the way, but finding a way to stay competitive in the process. It’s a testament to the buy-in the team has built from management to the coaching staff to the players on the ice, and they deserve a ton of credit for that. They also deserve credit for not building too heavily into the boosted record and continuing to work like a team that has miles to go near the trade deadline, making some depth acquisitions on the fringes but also not shying away from moving Sean Walker for a package including a first-round pick. They’re happy with their progress, but also understand their place, and that’s commendable.

Since the Flyers last faced Toronto, they’ve gone 5-5-1, and have gone 3-1-1 in their last five games. Their lone regulation loss was a blowout defeat against Tampa Bay, which saw John Tortorella get ejected in the first period. His refusal to leave the bench at first also earned him a two-game suspension, which means we won’t see him running the show tonight. In their first game without him on Tuesday, Philadelphia beat San Jose 3-2.

Last Matchup

The last game between the Maple Leafs and Flyers was on February 15th, and it was the Auston Matthews show once again. After Travis Sanheim opened the scoring in the first period, Matthews stormed out with an eight-minute natural hat trick in the second period, clocking in his first goal at 11:06 and sealing the trio at 18:55. That wasn’t enough to secure the win, as the Flyers scored a quick pair late in the third period to send the game to overtime, but William Nylander gave the game the last push it needed in overtime to send Toronto fans home happy.

Projected Lineups

Today’s Toronto Maple Leafs LinesToday’s Philadelphia FLyers Lines
Tyler Bertuzzi – Auston Matthews – Calle Jarnkrok
Max Domi – John Tavares – William Nylander
Matthew Knies – David Kampf – Bobby McMann
Pontus Holmberg – Connor Dewar – Ryan Reaves

TJ Brodie – Jake McCabe
Morgan Rielly – Ilya Lyubushkin
Joel Edmundson – Timothy Liljegren

Starting In Goal
Ilya Samsonov
17-5-6, 3.10 GAA, 0.887 SV%
Denis Gurianov – Sean Couturier – Travis Konecny
Tyson Foerster – Scott Laughton – Owen Tippett
Noah Cates – Ryan Poehling – Garnet Hathaway
Joel Farabee – Morgan Frost – Bobby Brink

Cam York – Travis Sanheim
Marc Staal – Ronnie Attard
Egor Zamula – Erik Johnson

Starting In Goal
Samuel Ersson
19-13-5, 2.61 GAA, 0.899 SV%

The Maple Leafs are without Mitch Marner again and aren’t expected to change too much of their lineup. There’s a possibility that a forward comes out for Nick Robertson, and a defenceman comes out for Simon Benoit, but neither has been confirmed one way or another.

Philadelphia has a couple of trade deadline acquisitions in their lineup that weren’t around when they visited Toronto. Erik Johnson was acquired from the Buffalo Sabres for a fourth-round pick, while Denis Gurianov was acquired for Wade Allison.

Owen Tippett (PHI) to take over 3.5 shots on goal


Key Injuries

The Maple Leafs are currently expected to be without Mitch Marner for a second consecutive game tonight. Marner suffered a lower-body injury while stretching out to make a play against Boston.

For the Flyers, their most immediate injuries include a week-to-week absence for Rasmus Ristolainen (upper body), a similar timeline for Jamie Drysdale (also upper body, suspected to be shoulder), and, you guessed it, another week-to-week injury for Nick Seeler, who suffered a lower-body injury two days before signing a four-year contract extension.

  • The Maple Leafs are 8-2 in their last 10 games against the Flyers, dating back to November 2019. This includes a seven-game winning streak dating back to November 2021. Against the puckline, it’s an even split, with five games going each team’s favour and an approximate 0.45 unit edge to the Flyers.
  • In recent action, Toronto are 7-3 in their last 10 games and 4-6 against the puckline. Over their last five, they’re 3-2 straight up and 0-5 against the puckline. On top of that, in those five games, they’ve only eclipsed the goals over once.
  • Philadelphia has also only gone over their total goals line once in their last five games.
  • The Leafs have been cold offensively over the past few weeks. With that said, a few individuals have notched five goals in their last 10 games – Tyler Bertuzzi, Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and William Nylander all share the team lead.
  • Nylander is the only point-per-game player in that 10-game stretch among the skaters projected to dress tonight, adding seven assists to his five goals. Bertuzzi, Matthews, and Max Domi trail with seven months. Matthews leads the team in shots over those 10 games with 39.
  • On Philadelphia’s end, Tyson Foerster leads the team in goals over their last 10 games, scoring six. Their points leader is actually on the blue line, with Travis Sanheim having three goals and five assists. Owen Tippett leads the way in shots on goal, with 43.

Wagers To Consider

  • Auston Matthews is cold of late, which is to say he’s only scoring on a 40-ish goal pace over his last 10 games. Nevertheless, we still turn to him at -125 anytime as an option you have to at least think about. If you’re feeling really feisty, you can get him to repeat his hat trick from the last game against the Flyers at a whopping +2000.
  • A more conservative Matthews-driven bet with extra juice has him and William Nylander both taking 3+ shots on goal, and the Leafs winning. That same-game parlay is currently boosted on bet365, at +200 up from +180.
  • Owen Tippett had eight shots on goal in the first of these two Torts-less games, and I expect him to bring the volume again. his line is at 3.5, and if you want to take him to clear it, he’s priced at +110.
  • Personally, I think this will be a decisive Leafs win. The offence is due for a pop, the Flyers are without their head coach, and this is usually a team they do well against. For a rare occasion, consider the puckline for Toronto at +185.

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