NHL Betting Preview (March 4): Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Odds

The Toronto Maple Leafs’ late winter homestand continues on Monday night with a familiar opponent in the Boston Bruins. While their Atlantic Division rival is ahead of them in the standings, Toronto’s fortunes have been much better of late, and they hope to harness that and get a little closer to that leading seed.

Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Bruins

BOS +110
TOR -130

The Maple Leafs are currently home favourites to win tonight, coming in at -130 on the moneyline (bet365), a number that’s closed in slightly overnight.

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins odds

Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds-130
Bruins Moneyline Odds+110
Puckline oddsMaple Leafs -1.5 (+180), Boston +1.5 (-220)
Total6.0 goals (over -125, under +105)
Time/DateMarch 4th, 7:07 p.m. ET
TVBroadcast: Sportsnet
Stream: Sportsnet+
(How to watch the NHL in Canada?)

All odds courtesy of

About the Maple Leafs (35-17-8 SU, 22-38 ATS, 33-25-2 o/u)

Toronto’s hot streak continued on Saturday night, though the margin for error that got them there was slim. Taking on the New York Rangers, who were one of the only teams in the league hotter than they were going into the game, Toronto saw themselves trailing at stretches in both the first and second periods but responded to both deficits with goals of their own.

John Tavares gave them their first lead of the game at the seven-minute mark of the third, but the pressure from the Rangers in the final minutes eventually caught up to them, as Vincent Trocheck’s second goal of the game tied things up. This sent the game to overtime and eventually a shootout, which birthday boy Max Domi won with a nifty fourth-round goal.

The game also featured the spectacle of a longtime heavyweight champ taking on a new kid on the block when Ryan Reaves dropped the gloves with Matt Rempe. It was an increasingly rare case of a much-anticipated fight in Toronto and while it wasn’t a dominant showing from either foe, it gave the fans what they wanted to see.

About the Bruins (35-13-14 SU, 30-32 ATS, 31-31 o/u)

Weirdly, the Bruins are in a similar spot to where the Maple Leafs were at the start of the season. Boston has just one regulation win in their last 11 games, going 3-3-5 in that stretch. Across that run, the team has conceded three or more goals in every game, last keeping an opponent to two or fewer in a 4-0 shutout against Vancouver on February 8th.

Linus Ullmark, in particular, has struggled, going 0-1-4 with a .874 save percentage in that run. Jeremy Swayman’s 3-2-1 with a .907 has been better and typically meets the “good enough threshold”, but when the two netminders were sitting on .915 and .922 respectively before the slump and could be relied on to put up historic numbers in the year prior, it changes the dynamic of the team to have them be mortal.

One player who hasn’t been mortal this year for Boston, and will remain one to watch in this game, is David Pastrnak. While he’s not as deep into the Hart Trophy mix as last year, he has remained excellent with 38 goals and 49 assists through 62 games, giving him a full-season clip of 50 goals and 115 points. His 302 shots on goal lead the league this year, giving him an opportunity to wear that crown for the second consecutive season if he keeps it up.

Last Matchup

Half of this season’s series will be played this week, with two of the games already having been played. So far, both games have gone in Boston’s favour but required extra time to get there. In the last matchup on December 2nd, the Bruins opened the first half of the game up with a 2-0 lead, surrendered goals from Auston Matthews and Max Domi to tie the game, went ahead again in the third, and then gave up that lead with six seconds remaining in regulation. Ultimately, captain Brad Marchand got the last laugh with the winner in overtime.

Projected Lineups

Today’s Toronto Maple Leafs LinesToday’s Boston Bruins Lines
Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner
Tyler Bertuzzi – Max Domi – William Nylander
Bobby McMann – John Tavares – Calle Jarnkrok
Pontus Holmberg – David Kampf – Ryan Reaves

Morgan Rielly – Ilya Lyubushkin
T.J Brodie – Jake McCabe
William Lagesson – Simon Benoit

Starting In Goal
Joseph Woll
9-5-1, 2.74 GAA, 0.918 SV%
Brad Marchand – Charlie Coyle – David Pastrnak
James Van Riemsdyk – Pavel Zacha – Jake Debrusk
Danton Heinen – Morgan Geekie – Trent Frederic
Jakub Lauko – Jesper Boqvist – Marc McLaughlin

Parker Wootherspoon – Charlie McAvoy
Mason Lohrei – Brandon Carlo
Derek Forbort – Kevin Shattenkirk

Starting In Goal
Jeremy Swayman
19-6-8, 2.53 GAA, 0.919 SV%

The Maple Leafs sent Nick Robertson to the Toronto Marlies ahead of Saturday’s game, in a move that is expected to be a short-term circumstance and the case of a numbers game, as Robertson was one of just two waiver-exempt players on the roster. Whether room is made for him via trade or he comes back closer to the playoffs remains to be seen.

The Boston lineup remains an interesting one – star-studded at its best, surprising in its effectiveness among the rest. The pace and work ethic they can bring on their best nights have kept the team competitive beyond everyone’s expected timelines, and even if this year’s team isn’t as good as last year’s, it’s hard not to give them credit for what they still are.

Tyler Bertuzzi to score a goal


Key Injuries

As quickly as Ilya Lyubushkin came to the Maple Leafs, he has departed, at least for the time being. Lyubushkin suffered a head injury from a hit from Matt Rempe on Saturday and seems likely to miss time. He’ll join Mark Giordano (head) and Conor Timmins (mono) on the more imminent IR list.

For Boston, they’re without Matthew Poitras (shoulder, out for the rest of the season), Hampus Lindholm (undisclosed, week-to-week), Matt Grzelcyk (undisclosed, day-to-day), and Justin Brazeau (undisclosed, day-to-day).

  • The Bruins are 6-4 straight up against the Maple Leafs in their last 10 games against each other, dating back to November 2019. This includes a current five-game winning streak, dating back to January 2023.
  • Toronto has fared better against the puckline in this matchup, going 6-4 over those 10 games and 3-2 in the five aforementioned losses. The total goals over has hit in six of the last 10 and three of the last five.
  • The Bruins are 3-7 in their last 10 games, and 2-8 against the puckline. This includes three consecutive road losses. On Toronto’s end, they’re 9-1 in their last 10, and 7-3 against the puckline.
  • No one on the Bruins is hotter than David Pastrnak right now, though his current run isn’t his strongest of the year. He leads the team with five goals, seven assists, 12 points, and 41 shots in their last 10 games. Charlie McAvoy has him tied for assists and has nine points in the same span.
  • After that, it’s fairly quiet in Boston. No one besides Pastrnak has more than three goals in the Bruins’ last 10 games or seven points. Brad Marchand is uncharacteristically quiet with a goal and five points in that stretch, and six points in their last 14.
  • Toronto, for the first time in a while, doesn’t have anyone with 40+ shots on goal over the last 10 games. Auston Matthews leads the group with 39, followed by William Nylander (35) and Bobby McMann (32). Matthews also leads the team in goals over the last 10 with 11, while Mitch Marner leads them in points with 17 (2G 15A).

Wagers To Consider

  • Tyler Bertuzzi’s stick has finally started to heat up, and he’s been particularly important in some meaningful games. With six goals in his last 10 games, could he score another against his brief former team tonight? Bet365 has the line on that one at +260. You can also take him over 2.5 shots on goal at +150 if you want to be a bit more cautious.
  • Of course, Auston Matthews watch is always on, and today, his anytime goal line sits at -125 tonight. If you’re feeling really courageous, there’s a boosted Same Game Parlay for a Leafs win and 2+ Matthews goals, sitting at +600 up from +525.
  • David Pastrnak, as mentioned above, has remained strong but not as hot as he’s often been in his last two seasons. He tends to elevate against Toronto, so his lines (+120 for over 1.5 points, -105 for a goal, -120 over 4.5 shots) are intriguing.
  • There may be a method to the madness on the slightly lower total tonight. As much as Boston has had issues fishing the puck out of their own net of late, the season series so far has had 11 goals in two games. Even the high-scoring games in this matchup in recent years have only pushed to about seven total goals. I could see this one going either way, but as someone who doesn’t often look at the under, I’ll admit there’s something to it at +105.

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