The Montreal Canadiens visit the American Airlines Center on Thursday, Oct. 29, with puck drop against the Dallas Stars scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Our Canadiens vs. Stars prediction backs Jason Robertson to record at least one point.
Montreal remains without Nick Suzuki and Samuel Montembeault, but arrives in Dallas looking to extend a successful road trip. The Stars need a better performance after Tuesday’s loss to New Jersey.
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Our Canadiens vs. Stars Prediction
Jason Robertson over 0.5 points
We like Robertson to record a point because his recent contributions have come through both finishing and creating goals. He has two goals and three assists across his last five games, recording a point in four of them, and shares Dallas’s team lead in assists with eight.
Robertson is projected on the second line and first power-play unit, where he would join Miro Heiskanen, Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, and Wyatt Johnston. That assignment gives him another route onto the scoresheet without requiring Dallas to win.
Montreal’s recent results are the strongest reason for caution: three consecutive road victories with only two goals conceded. Dallas, meanwhile, managed just one goal and 18 shots in its 5-1 loss to New Jersey.
Still, the Canadiens allowed 46 shots in Tuesday’s 2-0 win at St. Louis. The Jacob Fowler shutout did not come from keeping the opposition quiet on the shot clock. Robertson’s scoring involvement and projected power-play role keep us on the points over, especially with the struggling Jakub Dobeš in goal for Montreal.
Canadiens vs. Stars Odds
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Canadiens moneyline | +146 |
| Stars moneyline | -172 |
| Puck line | Canadiens +1.5 (-178), Stars -1.5 (+149) |
| Game total | Over 5.5 (-136), Under 5.5 (+116) |
Probable Starting Goaltenders
- Montreal: Jakub Dobeš (1-4, 4.47 GAA, .848 SV%)
- Dallas: Jake Oettinger (6-3, 1.43 GAA, .929 SV%)
Betting the Canadiens (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS, 7-5 o/u)
Montreal’s power play is the clearest area for improvement against Dallas. The Canadiens are 4-for-35, or 11.4 per cent, and have failed to score on 12 consecutive opportunities since Zachary Bolduc’s power-play goal against Buffalo on Oct. 17.
“It’s not one guy, it’s five guys,” Montreal coach Martin St. Louis said. “We could be a little more connected, for sure, and we’re trying to strive towards that.”
Ivan Demidov has played only two games because of a lower-body injury. With Suzuki also out, Montreal needs better connection from the players available to give its attack another scoring route. Relying on even-strength opportunities leaves less margin against a Dallas penalty kill that has been difficult to crack.
Betting the Stars (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 2-10 o/u)
Glen Gulutzan did not soften his assessment of Tuesday’s defeat, calling it “for sure our worst game of the season.” His concern extended beyond the score to lost battles and the way Dallas responded as New Jersey gained momentum.
“The (second) period was the worst period I’ve seen the guys play in my 100 games here,” Gulutzan said. “That’s on all of us to look at our emotional response there.”
Jamie Benn’s verdict was just as direct: “We just couldn’t get anything going tonight.” Dallas has scored 33 goals and conceded 25 across 12 games, but turning those broader results into a response requires sharper execution, not simply expecting a rebound.
The Stars cancelled Wednesday’s planned skate after four consecutive days on the ice. “Bringing them in and skating them was not going to make them better, in our minds,” Gulutzan said.
Hintz wants the team to take something useful from the loss. “We don’t want to get those bad nights because every game is important,” he said. “So we just want to get what we can from this game and bring that against Montreal.”
Special teams give Dallas a concrete matchup strength. The Stars have killed 22 consecutive opposition power plays since Oct. 14. Their penalty kill ranks second in the league at 92.9 per cent, with three goals allowed on 42 opportunities, presenting a tough test for Montreal’s struggling unit.
Matt Duchene, Radek Faksa, and Esa Lindell are out, while Kyle Capobianco and Sam Steel are day-to-day. Those availability concerns add to the challenge of finding a more connected performance.
Canadiens vs. Stars Player Prop Trends
- Noah Dobson has recorded two or more shots on goal in eight of his last 10 games and is -105 to register over 1.5 shots on goal.
- Mikko Rantanen has recorded three shots or fewer in 10 of his 12 games this season and is -185 to register under 2.5 shots on goal.
- Justin Hryckowian has scored in back-to-back games and is a long +500 to extend that scoring streak to three games.
- Kaiden Guhle has registered three hits or more in three straight games and six of his last 10. He’s -140 to record over 2.5 hits.
