In this article, we will break down Gavin McKenna NHL Draft odds with one best bet and also touch on some pre-draft narratives with a bet to look out for once more draft-related markets hit the board.
The outlook for the Toronto Maple Leafs completely changed last Tuesday. Not only did they avoid having to hand a high first-round selection off to the Boston Bruins, but they managed to secure the right to draft McKenna, who has been the presumptive number-one pick in this draft for several years.
Though the media has made sure to squeeze as much content as possible regarding what the Leafs should do with the pick, online sportsbooks currently have McKenna NHL Draft odds at -650 to be the first overall selection and are not buying into the narratives that Toronto might go a little off the board.
McKenna finished his first season in NCAA-1 with 51 points in 35 games after a strong finish to the season. He also recorded 14 points in seven games with Team Canada at the World Junior Championship. While McKenna has the highest offensive ceiling of any skater in the draft, he is not an overly well-rounded skater, and Ivar Stenberg’s game does offer fewer weaknesses.
McKenna to be 1st overall pick in draft
Gavin McKenna 2026-27 Futures (All Bets Action if McKenna Plays 1 Game)
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| McKenna to Record 25+ Goals | +225 |
| McKenna to Record 30+ Goals | +1100 |
| McKenna to Record 30+ Goals and Leafs to Make Playoffs | +1100 |
| McKenna to Record 30+ Goals and Leafs to Win Atlantic | +2250 |
| McKenna 50+ Points | -380 |
| McKenna 55+ Points | -160 |
| McKenna 60+ Points | +200 |
| McKenna 70+ Points | +1550 |
In general, the one-way markets being offered here can be somewhat predatory, as oddsmakers are not offering any “no” options which can prevent overly fair prices. Out of what is being offered, backing McKenna to record 60 points at +200 is a good look, and we will break that down below and touch on some of the other futures offered.
McKenna to Score 60 Points: +200 (Play to +195)
McKenna to score 60+ points in 2026-27
Some of these bets are obvious passes. You could bet McKenna to score 30 goals and the Leafs to make the playoffs at +1100, or you could bet him to score 30 goals at the same number. No complicated decision there.
Locking up money for nearly a full year to back McKenna scoring 50 points at -380 is extremely unappealing, while taking -160 to back him scoring 55 points is also not overly convincing.
McKenna will be one of the smaller skaters in the league and may not be well-situated for the grind of an 82-game season. I’d much rather tap into his ceiling by backing him to score 60 points at +200 than to consider laying juice when it’s not unrealistic for his debut season to go sideways based on his lack of physical maturity.
Assuming that McKenna is ultimately drafted by the Leafs, which does seem to be the most logical way for this to play out, one clear edge he will have over many first overall picks is that he will be playing on a team with some elite offensive talents.
Though Toronto’s defensive core is a train wreck and it was every bit as bad as its record suggested this season, not many first overall picks get to immediately play alongside legitimate top-line talents and on a power play that still looks quite strong on paper.
In Connor Bedard’s draft year, he put up 143 points in 57 WHL games and 23 points in seven World Junior games. McKenna put up 129 points in 56 WHL games in 2024-25, and likely would have matched Bedard’s draft season production had he stayed in the WHL.
They are very different players, given that Bedard’s lethal wrister is his best asset, while McKenna has likened himself more to Nikita Kucherov/Patrick Kane with incredible offensive awareness and ability to slow the play down to find open lanes.
Bedard put up 61 points as a rookie in 68 games but did average 19:47 of time on ice. The Leafs do not own their own draft pick next season and may potentially be less situated to let McKenna work through growing pains. Still, Bedard’s production while playing with no other legitimate top liners on the roster is encouraging relative to a price of +200 for McKenna to record 60 points, though McKenna is considered a less valuable first overall selection than Bedard at this point.
McKenna likely will not jump right in the league and dominate, but his offensive ceiling is high enough to believe +200 is a decent price for him to record 60 points given that he will benefit from playing alongside some legitimate top-line talents. And if McKenna is to drop to second overall, we certainly wouldn’t hate his chances of hitting 60 points playing on the San Jose Sharks instead.
Who Will the San Jose Sharks Select Second Overall?
In picking right at the top of the board year after year, the Sharks are well-situated to be a powerhouse for years to come. While it’s a good problem to have, there is a case for San Jose to go off the board and take a defender at No. 2, given that the majority of its foundational pieces are forwards.
Typically, at second overall you have to pick the best player available. If San Jose truly ends up being very unbalanced by the time it is back to legitimate contention, trading away a talented young forward such as Michael Misa, Quentin Musty, or William Eklund in order to bring in a defender should not be that difficult.
Sharks GM Mike Grier noted that he does intend to pick the best player available at No. 2, but that the team will do its due diligence and make sure that it feels comfortable that Stenberg is the second-best player available.
Still, it may give some leniency to drafting a defender, and Chase Reid has started to gain some traction as the highest-upside defender in the draft. Reid put up 48 points in 45 games in the OHL this season, and has strong offensive upside and poise with the puck.
Corey Pronman did project the Sharks to take Reid second overall in his most recent mock draft. If Reid does open up as a massive underdog to go second overall, it is an angle that feels worth taking a stab at.
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