Will the Boston Celtics make history on Monday night?
The Celtics are one win away from becoming the first team in NBA history to overcome a 3-0 deficit and win a playoff best-of-seven series.
Bet On The Heat @ Celitics Game 7
MIA +7 -105
BOS -7 -115
Boston has complete momentum in the series after reeling off three straight victories over Miami, including a heartstopping 104-103 win in Game 6 on Saturday that came down to the final seconds of the fourth quarter when Derrick White tipped in the game-winning basket.
Boston is a seven-point favourite Monday and the total is set at 203.5 points.
The winner of Monday’s do-or-die Game 7 will move on to play the Denver Nuggets in The Finals.
Heat vs. Celtics odds
|Heat Moneyline Odds||+240|
|Celtics Moneyline Odds||-300|
|Over/Under||203.5 points (over -110, under -110)|
|Time/Date||Monday, May 29, 8:30 p.m. ET|
Stream: NBA League Pass
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The two teams have clashed 10 times this year between the regular season and playoffs and have five wins apiece. Miami has a slight advantage with a 6-4 ATS record and the teams have combined for a 5-5 over/under record. The last three meetings have played under the total and bet365 oddsmakers have set the lowest total of the series (203.5 points) for Monday’s Game 7.
|Date||Home Team||Spread Odds||Result||Total|
|May 27, 2023 (Game 6)||Miami||Celtics -2||104-103 Celtics||209 (under)|
|May 25, 2023 (Game 5)||Boston||Celtics -8.5||110-97 Celtics||214.5 (under)|
|May 23, 2023 (Game 4)||Miami||Heat -1||116-99 Celtics||216 (under)|
|May 21, 2023 (Game 3)||Miami||Celtics -4.5||128-102 Heat||214 (over)|
|May 19, 2023 (Game 2)||Boston||Celtics -10||111-105 Heat||214.5 (over)|
|May 17, 2023 (Game 1)||Boston||Celtics -8.5||123-116 Heat||211 (over)|
|Jan. 24, 2023||Miami||Heat -2.5||98-95 Heat||215 (under)|
|Dec. 2, 2022||Boston||Celtics -7||120-116 Heat (OT)||226.5 (over)|
|Nov. 30, 2022||Boston||Celtics -9.5||134-121 Celtics||225 (over)|
|Oct. 21, 2022||Miami||Celtics -2||111-104 Celtics||220.5 (under)|
About the Heat (12-7 SU, 13-6 ATS, 11-8 o/u)
Miami can also make some history on Monday by joining the New York Knicks (1999) as the only No. 8 seeds to reach the NBA Finals.
The Heat have a 6-5 (.546 winning percentage) in Game 7 and head coach Erik Spoelstra is 4-3 in that scenario. Additionally, coach Spoelstra is 12-9 in elimination games, tying the fourth-highest winning percentage in NBA history (minimum 20 games), including a 4-1 record (three of those victories are against Boston) in Eastern Conference Finals elimination games.
With a win Monday, the Heat would become just the third team to win each of their first three postseason series as underdogs, joining the 1999 Houston Rockets and 1995 Knicks, according to the NBA’s official game notes.
The star duo of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo combined to shoot a miserable 9-for-37 (24.3%) from the floor in Game 6, so they’ll have to be much better in the series finale in order for Miami to have a chance of advancing. However, the Heat’s bench players are averaging 35.8 points this postseason and have outscored the opponents bench by a plus-210 margin in these playoffs.
About the Celtics (11-8 SU, 10-9 ATS, 11-8 o/u)
The Celtics are the 151st team in NBA history to fall into a 0-3 series hole. The 150 before them never won four straight games after that, and only three (1951 Knicks, 1994 Nuggets, and 2003 Portland Trail Blazers) ever forced a Game 7. Each of those teams lost Game 7 on the road.
Boston, which has home advantange in the series finale, also has a psychological edge over Miami after defeating the Heat, 100-96, in Game 7 of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals.
The Celtics will need to shoot much better from long range than they did in Game 6, though. Boston hit just seven of its 35 (20%) three-point attempts, While the Heat went an impressive 14-for-30 (46.6%) from deep.
Head coach Joe Mazzulla really shortened his rotation to just seven players (plus Sam Hauser logging just a couple of minutes) with guard Malcolm Brogdon out due to a lingering forearm issue. Bettors can expect that rotation to get even tighter in a crucial Game 7.
Gabe Vincent (ankle) is officially listed as questionable for the Heat. However, he did play in Game 6 and logged 41 minutes.
Brogdon (forearm) is also questionable after sitting out Game 6.
- The Heat are 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings.
- The over is 5-1 in the past six meetings in Boston.
- The over is 10-2 in Miami’s last 12 road games.
- The over is 11-5 in Boston’s last 16 games.
- The Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
Player prop trends
- Caleb Martin is averaging 17.6 points per game off the bench in the Eastern Conference Finals, tying the fifth-highest scoring average by a reserve in Conference Finals history. It’s also the second-highest average by a Heat reserve for any postseason series in team history. His line is 15.5 points (-105 over).
- White is the Game 6 hero for the Celtics and he’s cashing tickets for bettors that have been backing him in the threes made and steals categories. White has gone over his total for threes made in six straight games (draining at least a trio of three-pointers in each of those contest) and his line is 2.5 threes (-115 over). White has also recorded at least one steal in four straight games. He’s a steep -190 to get at least one theft.
- Heat forward Max Strus has logged at least one assist in four straight games while averaging 1.5 per game during that span. He’s -245 to record at least one assist.
Wagers to consider
- Total points over 203.5: -110. Sure, these teams have played under the total in three straight games, but the posted 203.5-point total is by far the lowest of the series (209 points was the next lowest in Game 6). The teams have combined to average 219 points per game in the series, and although things should tighten up slightly in a pivotal Game 7, the 203.5 points still seems low.
- Marcus Smart over 2.5 threes made: +105. Smart has drained at least a trio of three-pointers in each of the last three games of the series and he attempted a whopping 11 shots from long range in Game 6, which is almost double his average of 6.1 attemps per game this postseason.