We’ll try to make it three straight winning selections on Friday after a pair of longshot winners backing the Toronto Blue Jays to win the final two games of their important mid-week series versus the New York Yankees. The Blue Jays will look to keep building momentum in Friday’s series opener against the Pittsburgh Pirates, where they hold a significant pitching advantage with Kevin Gausman facing off against Bubba Chandler.
Our Pirates vs. Blue Jays predictions for Friday will target Kevin Gausman to record a win at +155. Get the latest MLB odds and our expert picks and win big at your favourite MLB betting site today.
Pirates vs Blue Jays Prediction: Gausman to Record a Win +155 (bet365, Play to +150)
Gausman has given himself plenty of opportunities to record wins this season, as in seven of his ten starts, he’s lasted at least five innings while allowing three earned runs or less. He’s pitched to an ERA of 3.45 across 57 and 1/3 innings this season, with an xFIP of 3.44 and an xERA of 3.35.
He’s walked just 3.8% of batters and allowed a hard-hit rate of 34.9%. He holds a WHIP of just 1.05 and should continue to eat plenty of innings for the team, something he has noted that he takes pride in on many occasions.
Chandler has pitched to an ERA of 5.14 across 42 innings of work this season, and his underlying profile suggests he is as shaky as that number suggests. He holds an xFIP of 5.65, an xERA of 4.93, and a strikeout minus walk-rate of just 2.6%.
Pittsburgh’s offence has hit to a wRC+ of 112 versus righties this season, but it holds the second-highest BABIP in the majors, and ranks tenth in expected weighted on-base average. In a year where the organization is angling to contend, the offence has been much improved, but moving forward, these two lineups should hold more comparable results.
Kevin Gausman to Record a Win
Pirates vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Pirates Moneyline Odds | (+135) |
| Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | (-160) |
| Run Line Odds | Pirates +1.5 (-160), Blue Jays -1.5 (+135) |
| Run Total | Over 8 Runs (-110), Under 8 Runs (-110) |
| Date/Time | May 22, 5:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh has seemingly picked a tough season to try and finally contend once again, given that all five teams in the NL Central are at least two games above .500. The Pirates’ starting rotation was expected to be quite strong, and that has been the case thus far as across 259 and 2/3 innings of work, Pittsburgh’s starters have pitched to an ERA of 3.64.
The Pirates bullpen has not been as dominant, as their relief staff has pitched to an ERA of 4.13, ranks 19th in xFIP, and 16th in strikeout minus walk-rate.
With Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller looming in the next two games of the series, the Blue Jays need to take advantage of the softer matchup offered by Chandler, as runs could be much tougher to come by on Saturday and Sunday.
Pittsburgh’s discipline at the plate remains not overly strong, as its lineup has swung at 53% of pitches outside the zone and holds the sixth-highest whiff rate in baseball. If Gausman can command his fastball and get into some favourable counts, he should be able to find some success working his trademark splitter just below the zone.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays
Splitting four games at Yankee Stadium versus an elite Yankees staff is a step in the right direction, and the Blue Jays will now look to build some momentum during a six-game home stand in which playing to a 4-2 record should be a very achievable goal.
While Toronto’s overall batting statistics during the four-game series at New York were far from eye-popping, it was highly apparent watching the games that the overall quality of at-bats had improved significantly. No team’s plate discipline has regressed more than the Blue Jays’ year-over-year.
Obviously, lengthy absences from key bats such as Alejandro Kirk and Addison Barger have been a big part of the team’s offensive struggles, but it’s also had much to do with the slow starts authored by Vladimir Guerrero Jr and George Springer, while Davis Schneider has also struggled mightily.
Nathan Lukes went 2-for-3 with a home run in Thursday’s rehab appearance. It’s not currently clear when exactly Lukes will return, but it is expected to be sometime in this series, barring any setbacks.
The Blue Jays bullpen was excellent in the second two games of the four-game series versus New York, with Jeff Hoffman’s three scoreless showings offering huge cause for optimism. Toronto’s relief staff now ranks 14th in ERA and holds the best xFIP in MLB.
