MLB Betting Preview (April 3): Blue Jays vs. Astros Predictions

The Toronto Blue Jays will play the rubber match of a three-game series against the Astros in Houston on Wednesday night at Minute Maid Park.

One night after being no-hit by the Astros, the Blue Jays’ bats remained silent Tuesday until Davis Schneider blasted a go-ahead two-run homer in the top of the ninth inning that proved to be the difference in a 2-1 Toronto victory.

Bet on Blue Jays vs. Astros

TOR +112
HOU -132

The loss dropped the Astros to 1-5 to start the new season as Jose Altuve’s fourth-inning solo homer was the only offence they could muster against Jose Berrios and three Toronto relievers.

Let’s take a look at the best odds available for Wednesday’s series finale:

Blue Jays vs. Astros best odds

Blue Jays Moneyline Odds+122 at FanDuel
Astros Moneyline Odds-132 at NorthStar Bets
Runline OddsAstros -1.5 (+155) at NorthStar Bets
Blue Jays +1.5 (-159) at PROLINE +
Over/UnderOver 8.5 runs (-120) at bet365
Under 9 runs (-112) at Pinnacle
Time/DateApril 3, 8:10 p.m. ET
TVBroadcast: Sportsnet 1

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 o/u)

Things were looking bleak for the Blue Jays until Schneider lifted their spirits with his heroics in the ninth inning Tuesday. But bettors can’t ignore the fact that Toronto was just a few outs away from being shut out in back-to-back games. The Jays have been held to two runs or fewer in four of their first six games, reinforcing some real concerns about the team’s ability to produce runs this season.

However, Toronto is reaping the early returns of the addition of Justin Turner, who put three hits on the board Tuesday and worked a walk to initiate the ninth-inning rally. Turner now has a pair of three-hit games this season to lift his slash line to .350/.435/.700 to open the campaign.

Shortstop Bo Bichette returned to action Tuesday after missing a pair of games with neck spasms. He went 1-for-4 in his return and his inclusion in the lineup moving forward will be critical to the Jays’ chances of turning around their offensive struggles.

Lefty Genesis Cabrera will be unavailable Wednesday as he continues to serve his two-game suspension for his role in a brawl against the Tampa Bay Rays. Pitchers Alek Manoah (shoulder), Jordan Romano (elbow), and Erik Swanson (forearm) as well as catcher Danny Jansen (wrist) are also not available.

Betting Houston Astros (1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS, 1-4-1 o/u)

The Astros spoiled an incredible outing Tuesday from starting pitcher Framber Valdez, who carried a shutout into the eighth inning after a rough season opener against the New York Yankees last week in which he issued six walks and failed to escape the fifth inning. Valdez’s sinker had incredible movement and he displayed superior control against the Blue Jays, but the Houston bullpen unravelled again, taking its fifth loss of the season.

Closer Josh Hader, who signed a five-year deal with the Astros this past winter, has been a huge disappointment to this point, accounting for two of those losses and a blown save. He’s been taken deep twice in four outings.

The Astros finished 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position and left six runners on base Tuesday, one night after exploding for 10 runs against Toronto on Monday.

Jose Altuve over 1.5 total bases


Probable pitchers

Toronto: RHP Chris Bassitt (0-1, 7.20 ERA, 10.80 K/9, 1.60 WHIP

Bassitt’s first start of the season didn’t go as planned against the Rays last week. He yielded four earned runs and struck out six in five innings of work to take the loss. The crafty righty relies on seven different pitches to baffle opposing hitters and he’s had some success against Houston historically. In 13 career appearances against the Astros, he has a 5-3 record with a 3.72 ERA in 75 innings of work against Houston, which has a microscopic .128 batting average against him.

Houston: RHP Cristian Javier (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 9.00 K/9, 0.83 WHIP

Javier turned in a very impressive first outing of the season against the Yankees last week, throwing six scoreless innings while punching out six batters. Houston’s bullpen imploded in that contest, though, leaving the righty with a no-decision. Javier throws four pitches, but hitters will see fastballs, sliders, and changeups most of the time and he’ll occasionally mix in a knuckle curveball. His fastball averages just under 93 mph but it ranks in the 89th percentile in run value, according to Baseball Savant. Javier has just two career starts against the Blue Jays and he’s coughed up six earned runs (5.23 ERA) in just over 10 innings of work.


Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 22 C and clear this evening in Houston, but the roof is almost always closed at Minute Maid Park regardless of the weather. If the retractable roof is open, winds will be blowing in from left field at roughly 10 mph.

  • The Blue Jays have hit the team total under in 78 of their past 139 games (56% hit rate).
  • The Blue Jays have hit the first five Innings (F5) team total under in 19 of their past 27 games (70% hit rate).
  • The Astros have hit the team total under in 33 of their last 54 games at home (61% hit rate).
  • Jose Altuve has at least one hit in 11 straight games dating back to last season. Sportsbooks have increased his line to over 1.5 hits from 0.5 hits, though, and you can find the best odds at NorthStar Bets on over 1.5 hits (+170).
  • Bassitt has recorded five strikeouts or more in four straight starts dating back to last season, averaging 7.75 per game during that span. His best odds on over 4.5 strikeouts can be found at Caesars (-111).
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has failed to record over 1.5 total bases in four straight games and he’s 0-for-4 in his career against Javier. His best odds on under 1.5 total bases can be found at Caesars (-133).

MLB bets to consider

  • Altuve is seeing red early this season, so let’s keep the ball rolling with over 1.5 total bases (best odds +105 at Betano). This prop cashed Tuesday night thanks to his long ball and he’s seen plenty of Bassitt with 27 career at-bats against the Jays starter. Altuve is hitting just .222 with a .620 OPS against him but he does boast a homer.
  • Consider taking Yordan Alvarez to go deep (best odds +260 at Sports Interaction) in this one against Bassitt. The Astros slugger has his number, stroking four homers in 15 career at-bats against him. He’s homerless with a .347 OPS through six games this season, but this could be a great opportunity for him to break out of his current funk against a pitcher he sees well. If you want to play it more conservatively, you can grab Alvarez over 1.5 total bases (best odds -102 at NorthStar Bets).