Our Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions for Tuesday will target a potential turnaround from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as a strong betting angle in this matchup at Yankee Stadium. Get the latest MLB odds and our expert picks and win big at your favourite MLB betting site today.
Blue Jays vs. Tigers Prediction
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases: +115 (bet365, Play to +105)
There have not been many positives to write home about for the Blue Jays this season, and Guerrero has clearly felt a ton of pressure to begin performing at a higher level, given the team’s need for more power at the plate.
You could certainly feel just how much this home run meant to the Jays’ most important bat, and in the PA’s that have come immediately following this key home run, Guerrero has suddenly looked quieter in the batter’s box and followed a better overall approach.
Over the last 9 PA’s, Guerrero has hit .375, with a 50% hard-hit rate, and struck out zero times. He’s hit four balls with exit velocities of 103.8 or greater and had a steady performance in the series opener with a single and a walk.
Guerrero has slugged .632 at Yankee Stadium in his career with an OPS of 1.002, and this series could offer a perfect spot for the struggling superstar to continue building on the momentum he seems to be building currently.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases
Blue Jays vs. Yankees odds
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | +115 |
| Yankees moneyline odds | -135 |
| Run line odds | Blue Jays +1.5 (-180), Yankees -1.5 (+150) |
| Game total | Over 8.5 runs (-120), Under 8.5 runs (+100) |
| Date/time | May 19, 5:05 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
About the Blue Jays (21-26 SU, 20-27 ATS, 22-23-2 O/U)
In a season where it’s felt like nothing can go right, Monday’s loss in the opener of a critical series was about as painful as it gets for the Blue Jays. Yariel Rodriguez allowed four earned runs with two outs in the bottom of the seventh inning, blowing what was otherwise a strong performance in an important spot for the team.
They will count on high-profile offseason signing Dylan Cease to right the ship Tuesday. When the Jays pitched Cease in the offseason, they reportedly outlined the changes they would make to help Cease offer greater effectiveness this season and what the team believed his ERA would have been last season with their defence behind him, and obviously Cease decided to buy into what was being sold to him.
Cease has pitched to an ERA of 2.41 and an xFIP of 2.56 thus far this season, and generally given the team a legitimate chance to win each of his starts by allowing more than 3 ER only once. He holds a career-high strikeout rate of 34.6% and has sequenced his strong six-pitch mix effectively.
In pitching to an ERA of 4.13 and an xFIP of 3.34, the Blue Jays bullpen has statistically been a little sharper than it seems, but it continues to feel as though there aren’t many arms to be trusted in high-leverage situations, as was the case in Monday’s deflating loss.
Due in part to a number of key absences, the Blue Jays lineup has hit a wRC+ of 91, and really struggled to replicate the magic we saw last season. The team had been comparably unproductive at this point in the 2025 season, but the underlying results were slightly more positive and pointed strongly to the idea that a turnaround was likely once they found positive regression with runners in scoring position.
About the Yankees (29-19 SU, 25-23 ATS, 21-24-3 O/U)
Offensively, the Yankees have been comparably dominant this season as they were in hitting to a wRC+ of 116, as well as a wRC+ of 113 versus righties. While their power-driven offence remains quite effective and will provide a tough matchup for Cease, the rotation has been dominant, with Will Warren and Wednesday’s starter, Cam Schlittler, having excellent campaigns.
Warren has pitched to an ERA of 3.42 with an xFIP of 2.84. He holds a strikeout minus walk rate of 23.7%, and a Stuff+ rating of 109. His form has tailed off slightly of late as he’s allowed batters to hit .244 and allowed an ERA of 4.03 over his last five starts, but Warren’s underlying results still suggest he will be a much better than average starter this season.
New York’s bullpen has also been effective, as Yankees relievers have pitched to an ERA of 3.43 and an xFIP of 3.81 this season.
