Our Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction goes to the prop market at Camden Yards. Pete Alonso has five homers in his last six games, including two against Toronto on Monday, which means Max Scherzer will be careful with him. At +140 to draw a walk, that’s the play with both clubs all but eliminated.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction
Pete Alonso over 0.5 walks: +140 best odds @ BET99
Alonso over 0.5 walks
Alonso is on a heater right now, so you can bet the Blue Jays will be pitching him very carefully on Tuesday night.
With five home runs in his last six games, including two on Monday against the Blue Jays, it’s very possible that Alonso draws an intentional walk or earns a walk if he’s patient in the box on Tuesday night.
Alonso ranks in the 79th percentile among qualified hitters in walk rate at 11.4%, and he’s drawn at least one walk in 39% of his games this season.
We’re getting close to fair value at +140 (41.5% implied odds), given Scherzer’s walk rate at 9.8% ranks in just the 33rd percentile.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles odds
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | +100 |
| Orioles moneyline odds | -120 |
| Run line odds | Orioles -1.5 (+175), Blue Jays +1.5 (-210) |
| Game total | Over 7.5 runs (+100), Under 7.5 (-120) |
| Date/time | Sept. 22, 6:35 p.m. ET |
Betting the Blue Jays (77-80 SU, 76-81 ATS, 82-73-2 o/u)
Injuries have been an issue all season long for Toronto, and recent ailments to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Brett Bateman are the latest setback for the club, which has a mediocre 9-9 record in September to this point.
The Blue Jays have now 3.5 games back of the White Sox for the final AL wild-card spot with just five remaining, giving them a 1% chance of qualifying for the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.
Toronto will likely need to win all five of its remaining games, and Chicago will need to stumble mightily down the stretch in order for the Blue Jays to clinch a playoff spot.
Betting the Orioles (76-81 SU, 82-75 ATS, 79-74-4 o/u)
The Orioles are still mathematically alive in the AL playoff hunt after Monday’s thrilling 4-3 win over Toronto, although FanGraphs is giving them just a 0.2% chance of qualifying for the postseason. Baltimore is 4.5 games back of Chicago, which means it must win all five of its remaining games in addition to the White Sox dropping all five of their remaining contests.
Pete Alonso is making a late charge for the AL home run crown, bashing five homers in his last six games to reach 40 on the season, one behind Tampa’s Junior Caminero for the AL lead. He clubbed a pair of homers on Monday and now has five total home runs against Toronto this season.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Max Scherzer (3-8, 6.07 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 6.69 K/9)
This starting pitching matchup is a rematch of the Sept. 11 clash between these two teams, when Baltimore came away with a 7-4 victory at Rogers Centre. Scherzer allowed six earned runs on seven hits over five innings to take the loss.
Obviously, he’ll be looking for a better outcome in this start, which could be the final one of his illustrious career. The 42-year-old hasn’t formally announced retirement plans, but you have to wonder if this is the end of the line given his struggles this season.
If retirement is on the horizon, it’s probable Scherzer pulls off something special on Tuesday night with a vintage performance as an appropriate sendoff.
Baltimore: RHP Chris Bassitt (8-5, 4.64 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 6.68 K/9)
Bassitt turned in a decent outing against the Blue Jays last week, holding Toronto to two runs on six hits with five strikeouts over five innings of work. He’s been very good across three September outings, recording a 3.12 ERA while holding opponents to a .235 batting average.
The 37-year-old has thrived at Camden Yards this season, owning a 3-2 record with a 3.53 ERA across eight home appearances.
Notable injuries
The following players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- P Patrick Corbin (shoulder)
- P Shane Bieber (shoulder)
- P Jameson Taillon (elbow)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- OF Addison Barger (elbow)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is day-to-day with a back injury.
- P Dylan Cease is day-to-day with a shoulder injury.
- OF Brett Bateman (hip) is day-to-day.
The following notable players are on the injured list for Baltimore:
- OF Tyler O’Neill (shoulder)
- P Ryan Helsley (elbow)
- 2B Jackson Holliday (undisclosed)
- P Kyle Bradish (hernia)
- 3B Blaze Alexander (back)
- 1B Ryan Mountcastle (foot)
- 3B Jordan Westburg (elbow)
- C Samuel Basallo (head) is day-to-day.
Weather
Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 17 C with a 90% chance of rain this evening in Baltimore. Winds will blow in from centre field at 15 mph.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles betting trends
- The over is 9-2 in the past 11 meetings.
- Toronto leads the season series 6-5.
- The Orioles have covered the run line in five of their last seven games.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles player prop trends
- Bassitt has struck out four or more batters in six straight starts, including five last week against Toronto. He’s -125 to record over 3.5 strikeouts.
- Scherzer has recorded 15 outs or more in five straight starts and nine of his last 10. He’s -145 to record over 14.5 outs.
- Alejandro Kirk has hit safely in six straight games and 16 of his last 20. He’s -220 to extend his hitting streak.
- Alonso has five homers in his last six games and is +325 to go deep Tuesday.
