Our Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction lands on the under 7.5 at Camden Yards. Toronto is three games back with six to play and a 3.5% playoff chance; Baltimore is five back and just got swept and shut out twice by Milwaukee. With rain, wind blowing in and both starters on tight pitch counts, runs should be hard to come by.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction
Under 7.5 runs scored: -105 best odds @ Sports Interaction
Under 7.5 runs scored
This game should have a playoff-like feel with both teams desperate to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, and as a result, we should see a low-scoring affair.
Expect both squads to go to their respective bullpens early and often for the best possible matchups. Both starting pitchers will have extremely short leashes in this instance and will likely be pulled at the first sign of significant trouble.
Additionally, the weather forecast isn’t favourable for offence, with cool temperatures and rain expected. Winds will also be blowing in, which should help keep the ball in the park.
Finally, the Orioles are in a miserable offensive funk right now, having been shut out in back-to-back games by the Brewers.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles odds
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -105 |
| Orioles moneyline odds | -115 |
| Run line odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+160), Orioles +1.5 (-190) |
| Game total | Over 7.5 runs (-110), Under 7.5 (-110) |
| Date/time | Sept. 21, 6:35 p.m. ET |
Betting the Blue Jays (77-79 SU, 76-80 ATS, 82-72-2 o/u)
The Blue Jays find themselves on life support entering this series, trailing the White Sox by three games with six left to play for the final AL playoff spot. A popular MLB projection site, FanGraphs, is giving Toronto just a 3.5% chance of making the playoffs.
Expect the desperate Blue Jays to literally pull out all the stops, similar to what a team would do in a Game 7 of the World Series, in order to scratch out a win and keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Everyone and anyone will likely be available out of the bullpen.
Betting the Orioles (75-81 SU, 81-75 ATS, 79-73-4 o/u)
Although mathematically still alive in the AL playoff hunt, the season is all but over for the Orioles, who trail the White Sox by five games with just six games remaining for the final playoff spot.
They just suffered a three-game sweep at the hands of the Brewers over the weekend and were shut out twice in that span. Baltimore has averaged a respectable 4.4 runs per game (15th in the majors) this season.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Trey Yesavage (5-5, 3.65 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.74 K/9)
Yesavage is coming off the injured list to make this start for Toronto, but he’ll only throw 45-50 pitches over a maximum of three innings as he works his way back from knee surgery, according to manager John Schneider.
The right-hander owns a solid 3.65 ERA over 18 starts for the Blue Jays this season, and he also spent time on the injured list earlier this year with a shoulder problem.
Baltimore: RHP Shane Baz (6-15, 4.11 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.91 K/9)
Baz left his last start after taking a liner off his pitching arm, but X-rays were negative, and he’s been cleared to make this start against Toronto.
He leads the team with 30 starts and 173 innings pitched but is tied with Cleveland’s Tanner Bibee for the most losses (15) in the majors this season.
Baz pitched well in his only previous start against the Blue Jays this season, holding Toronto to one run over 5 2/3 innings while striking out three batters.
Most of Baz’s Statcast metrics rank around the league average, and he’s a solid innings-eater for the Orioles.
Notable injuries
The following players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- P Patrick Corbin (shoulder)
- P Shane Bieber (shoulder)
- P Jameson Taillon (elbow)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- OF Addison Barger (elbow)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is day-to-day with a back injury.
- P Dylan Cease is day-to-day with a shoulder injury.
The following notable players are on the injured list for Baltimore:
- OF Tyler O’Neill (shoulder)
- P Ryan Helsley (elbow)
- 2B Jackson Holliday (undisclosed)
- P Kyle Bradish (hernia)
- 3B Blaze Alexander (back)
- 1B Ryan Mountcastle (foot)
- 3B Jordan Westburg (elbow)
Weather
Rain is in the forecast for Monday night in Baltimore, with a 90% chance of precipitation and up to 5 mm expected. Winds will blow in from centre field at 8 mph.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles betting trends
- The over is 9-1 in the past 10 meetings between these teams.
- Toronto leads the season series 6-4.
- The Orioles have covered the run line in five of their last six games.
- The Orioles have hit the game total under in 16 of their last 24 home games.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles player prop trends
- Alejandro Kirk has hit safely in five straight games and 16 of his last 20. He’s -235 to get a hit.
- Coby Mayo has walked in four straight games and six of his last 10. He’s +145 to earn at least one walk on Monday night.
- Fade George Springer on Monday night. He’s an awful 1-for-15 with four strikeouts in his career against Baz.
