We got right with a +145 winner on Wednesday thanks largely to our guy, Trey Yesavage, who carved up the Yankees lineup across six scoreless innings. Thursday’s series finale likely will not be the same type of pitcher’s duel, as Braydon Fisher will open up for Spencer Miles for Toronto, while Carlos Rodon will make his third start of the season.
Our Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions for Thursday will target the Blue Jays moneyline at +125. Get the latest MLB odds and our expert picks and win big at your favourite MLB betting site today.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (+125)
The Blue Jays seem to hold a seemingly underrated pitching edge in Thursday’s series finale, as Carlos Rodon has looked quite shaky thus far this season, while Spencer Miles continues to offer plenty of cause for optimism from Blue Jays faithful.
Miles has pitched to a 3.25 xERA and 3.24 xFIP across 24 and 2/3 innings of work this season. He’s struck out 8.39 batters per nine, holds a strong Pitching+ rating of 102, and has effectively sequenced his four-pitch mix in the early stages of his big league career.
After a late start to the season due to an elbow injury, Rodon has not looked overly sharp thus far with an ERA of 5.63 and a WHIP of 1.62. While Rodon may start to command his stuff more effectively as he shakes the rust off, the Blue Jays torched him last season with their disciplined approach at the plate, and have offered much more competitive at-bats in this series relative to the quality of starters faced, and could finally be picking up some momentum offensively.
Backing Toronto at +105 to win the first five innings also looks to be an option, but I don’t believe the Yankees edge in the final four innings is enough to warrant such a large price disparity, and prefer backing Toronto to win the game at +125.
Blue Jays Moneyline
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds
| Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | (+125) |
| Yankees Moneyline Odds | (-150) |
| Run Line Odds | Blue Jays +1.5 (-150), Yankees -1.5 (+125) |
| Run Total | Over 8 runs (-115), Under 8 runs (-105) |
| Date/Time | May 21, 5:05 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays
While a lack of power is the most obvious reason for the Blue Jays’ year-over-year offensive decline, a key reason that it has had such a hard time slugging has been the team’s drastically increased chase rate and inability to put pitchers into uncomfortable situations.
Dating back to Sunday’s win, the Blue Jays have averaged 4.0 runs per game versus a number of high-quality starters and have done a much better job of offering more competitive at-bats. They still need much greater production out of the top bats in the lineup, but as we sit a week away from when the offence broke out last year, the offensive process feels like it’s trending in the right direction.
Braydon Fisher holds a 3.88 xFIP and 3.08 ERA this season, and his stuff grades out similarly as it did last season when he pitched to an ERA of 2.70.
Toronto’s bullpen holds the best xFIP in baseball and the third-best strikeout-minus-walk rate. While it would be nice to see a few more arms really dominate in high-leverage spots, the unit has still been quite strong and would not feel nearly as concerning if the team had produced runs at a league-average rate this season.
Betting New York Yankees
It’s not unrealistic to think that Rodon will not make a postseason start for the Yankees this season, given the potentially ridiculous depth of the rotation when Gerrit Cole and Max Fried are healthy.
Rodon pitched to an ERA of 9.72 last postseason and has struggled mightily to command the ball in his first three starts of the year. He’s walked 21.1% of batters, and his swinging strike rate has dropped to 10%, while his zone contact rate is up to 76.3%.
The Yankees’ offence holds the highest walk rate in baseball this season, and holds the third highest slugging rate in the league. Aaron Judge is still the main ingredient behind their offensive dominance, but the team’s overall plate discipline and depth have improved compared to previous years built around a similar core.
Though they still aren’t at the same level as the Blue Jays from a fielding perspective, the Yankees rank ninth in fielding run value this season and have taken steps forward in that aspect of the game as well, after their defensive miscues were a big talking point over the previous two postseasons.
