Our Blue Jays vs. Rays prediction for Tuesday night points to a tight, low‑scoring game at Tropicana Field. With Kevin Gausman and Drew Rasmussen posting dominant early‑season numbers, look for this matchup to lean toward an under‑heavy slate of markets and a quality bullpen‑ball style game between AL East rivals.
Blue Jays vs. Rays prediction
No Run First Inning: -129 @ Pinnacle
NRFI
With two starting pitchers in fine form on the mound, there appears to be value in backing the No Run First Inning in this matchup.
Gausman hasn’t allowed a single run in the first inning across seven starts (100% hit rate), while Rasmussen has done the same in five of his six outings this season (83% hit rate). And looking at last year’s NRFI stats for these starting pitchers also indicates this is a strong Blue Jays vs. Rays prediction, as Gausman held the opposition scoreless in the first inning at a 69% rate and Rasmussen was even better at 77%.
At -129 (56.33% implied odds), we’re getting great value on this prop given these data sets.
As always, be sure to shop around for the most favourable odds at the best MLB betting sites before locking in any wagers.
Blue Jays vs. Rays odds
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | +110 |
| Rays moneyline odds | -130 |
| Run line odds | Rays -1.5 (+165), Blue Jays +1.5 (-200) |
| Game total | Over 7 runs (-120), Under 7 (+100) |
| Date/time | May 5, 6:40 p.m. ET |
Betting the Blue Jays (16-19 SU, 14-21 ATS, 18-17 o/u)
The Blue Jays scattered 10 hits and left 16 runners on base in a 5-1 loss in the series opener on Monday to fall to 6-11 on the road this season.
Yohendrick Pinango batted in the leadoff spot for the second consecutive game, contributing three of Toronto’s hits while also scoring a run. He now has seven hits over his last three games and has likely earned another nod in the starting lineup on Tuesday as a result.
Bettors should know there’s a chance that George Springer returns to action for the Blue Jays on Tuesday. He fouled a ball off his left toe Saturday. The 36-year-old is off to a slow start, recording a .216 batting average and .670 OPS with two homers in 18 games this season.
Betting the Rays (22-12 SU, 21-13 ATS, 17-17 o/u)
The Rays are the hottest team in baseball right now, with wins in four straight games and 10 of their last 11. However, the impressive run still has the Rays trailing the New York Yankees by 1.5 games for the top spot in the AL East.
Tampa’s pitching staff has limited opponents to a total of eight runs over its last seven games, so it’s not surprising to see a low game total of seven posted for this matchup at most online sportsbooks.
Additionally, Tampa’s relievers have surrendered just one run over their last 26 1/3 innings pitched, another reason for the Rays’ impressive run.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (2-2, 3.10 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 8.85 K/9)
After impressive showings in each of his first six starts of the season, Gausman stumbled the last time he took the mound against the Minnesota Twins, coughing up four runs on four hits, including a pair of homers while striking out just two batters.
The veteran right-hander hasn’t pitched as well away from home this season, authoring a 1-1 record with a 4.86 ERA and .258 opponents batting average in his three road starts. He owns a sparkling 1.88 ERA with a .163 opponents batting average in four starts at Rogers Centre.
Gausman’s splitter has been elite this season, holding opponents to a .158 batting average and a .214 xBA with an impressive 40.5% whiff rate.
Tampa Bay: RHP Drew Rasmussen (2-1, 2.64 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 9.39 K/9)
Rasmussen has been solid for the Rays through six starts, allowing two earned runs or less in five of those six outings.
He was roughed up a bit in his last start, though, allowing three runs on six hits over five innings to the Cleveland Guardians.
Rasmussen has been electric in two starts at Tropicana Field this year, allowing just a single run over 12 innings of work at his home ballpark, albeit it’s a very small sample size.
The right-hander’s 2.59 xERA ranks in the 92nd percentile in the majors this season, and his 4.1% walk rate is elite, ranking in the 97th percentile.
Notable injuries
The following players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- C Alejandro Kirk (thumb)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- P Shane Bieber (elbow)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- P Bowden Francis (elbow)
- OF Addison Barger (ankle)
- OK Nathan Lukes (hamstring)
- P Max Scherzer (forearm)
OF George Springer (toe) is also listed as day-to-day and will be a game-time decision.
The following players are on the injured list for Tampa Bay:
- P Mason Englert (forearm)
- P Joe Boyle (elbow)
- P Ryan Pepiot (elbow)
- OF Gavin Lux (shoulder)
- P Edwin Uceta (shoulder)
- P Michael Grove (shoulder)
- P Steven Wilson (back)
- P Manuel Rodriguez (elbow)
Weather
This game will be played inside the dome at Tropicana Field so weather won’t be a factor.
Blue Jays vs. Rays betting trends
- The under is 8-3 in the past 11 meetings.
- The Rays are 14-2 straight up against AL opponents this season.
- The under is 9-0 in Tampa’s last nine games.
- Tampa has won 17 of its last 22 games.
Blue Jays vs. Rays player prop trends
- Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz is 7-for-12 with a home run and a 1.476 OPS in his career against Gausman. He’s +130 to record over 1.5 total bases and -220 to get a hit.
- Gausman has recorded five strikeouts or less in each of his last five starts. He’s -130 to record under 5.5 strikeouts on Tuesday night.
- Blue Jays third baseman Kazuma Okamoto has homered in three of his last four games, tallying four total long balls in that span. He’s +425 to go deep.
- Rays infielder Junior Caminero has scored at least one run in four straight games and is +100 to extend that streak. He has a 53% hit rate on over 0.5 runs this season.
