In this article, Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin breaks down the two best NHL player props that provide value at online sportsbooks today (4/27/26).
Our previous guide went 1-1 and lost 0.23 units, dropping our record on the season to +10.59 units. As a PSA, I’d like to note that Jeremy Swayman was credited with two additional saves after the game, and while it was not an issue at bet365, where we listed the prop, if you played it elsewhere, I’d recommend attempting to ensure the bet was graded correctly.
Yegor Chinakhov Most Shots on Goal in Game: +1250 (Play to +1175)
Chinakhov most SOG in game
Chinakhov currently ranks second among all skaters in this series with 27 shot attempts, with Erik Karlsson leading the way with 28. In the final 42 games of the season, Chinakhov ranked second only to Rickard Rakell in shots on goal and generated 18 goals in those matchups.
Backing Chinakhov to record over 2.5 shots on goal at +135 looks to provide value and is a safer option and was a play that we hit on in Game 2 at +175. However, given the potential low-event nature of this game and the lack of obvious candidates to offer greater volume than Chinakhov, taking a stab at this long shot at +1250 looks to be a superior option.
For no clear reason, Penguins head coach Dan Muse strayed away from the line of Evgeni Malkin, Tommy Novak, and Chinakhov for the first two games of this series. Though the line has not been dominant thus far, the trio generated 3.66 xGF/60 across 222.7 minutes in the regular season, and had a better showing in the Pens’ do-or-die win in Game 4.
Based on his shot volume after coming over from the Columbus Blue Jackets and his rate of attempts in this series, Chinakhov seems to be a likely candidate to lead on the Penguins’ side.
Out of the Flyers, we will need to fade a big night from Martone, who leads all Flyers with 12 shots. Still, Martone has attempted eight fewer shots than Chinakhov in the series, and the fact that no Flyers forward has averaged more than 17:39 of time on ice in the series is a positive.
Someone we are not expecting to be among the leaders is likely to end up in the mix, and this is undoubtedly a long shot, but Chinakhov seems likely enough to be in the mix for a price of +1250 to be worth a look.
Nick Schmaltz Under 0.5 Points: +125 (Play to +115)
Schmaltz under 0.5 points
The talented young Utah Mammoth have come ready to play thus far in the series and will have the opportunity to stake a 3-1 lead Monday on home ice. While the Mammoth’s start to the first postseason in franchise history has been a fun story, I do lean with the Knights knotting up the series on Monday and feel that fading Schmaltz in this market is a particularly sharp way to fade Utah.
Throughout the majority of the series, it’s been Utah’s second line of Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther, and Kailer Yamomoto that has consistently generated scoring chances at a high rate for the Mammoth, while the other three trios have not been nearly as convincing.
The Mammoth were clinical in their goal-scoring in Game 3, but generated only 12 shots on target and just five high-danger scoring chances. The leading game script played a role in that and Carter Hart is far from a convincing option in goal, but despite the result, the game was still a testament to the defensive upside of Vegas.
The Knights allowed only 1.88 goals against per game in the final eight games of the regular season, and have allowed only 2.90 xGA/60 throughout the first three games of the series.
Utah’s top line of Clayton Keller, Lawson Crouse, and Schmaltz has generated just 1.32 xGF/60 with a 31.6% expected goal share throughout 27.2 minutes of even-strength play in the series. They are spending a lot of time versus the Knights’ top skaters, and it’s a battle that has been decisively won by Vegas, even if it has had concerns elsewhere.
Schmaltz has recorded just one point throughout the first three games of the series and has not been involved in very many scoring chances playing on a line that has been locked down quite effectively. Based on his actual production and underlying results, a price of +125 for Schmaltz to be held pointless in Game 4 looks to offer strong value.
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