World Cup 2026 Dark Horses That Could Surprise Everyone

Fans of dark horses are in for a treat this summer at the 2026 World Cup.

While they rarely make it all of the way, underdogs have created enough chaos over the years to keep the big teams on their toes, while giving inferior countries hope in future World Cups.

Given that more teams will compete at the 2026 World Cup in North America than usual, the odds at the best Canadian soccer betting sites of David slaying Goliath are better than ever.

Why we love World Cup dark horses

The World Cup wouldn’t be nearly as fun if the favourites won all of the time. A chance to watch a Cinderella team emerge and punish a lopsided favourite is one of the big draws of the World Cup, especially in the group stage.

Germany is a recent example of an elite soccer nation that’s suffered against teams that the four-time World Cup winner was expected to beat. Germany went into a tailspin after winning the World Cup, shockingly exiting the tournament in the World Cup group stage in 2018 and 2022.

Who was to blame for the downfall of one of the most revered men’s national team programs in the world? The German football federation obviously deserved some of the blame. 

But it was a series of inspired performances from teams that nobody expected to compete with Germany, let alone beat the European powerhouse. Germany finished last in the group stage in 2018 after losses to South Korea and Mexico, while the country’s shocking defeat to Japan in 2022 contributed to another early exit after a dramatic final day in the group stage saw the team go out on goal differential.

Here are some of the 2026 World Cup dark horses to watch:

All odds courtesy of bet365.

Tier 1: Dark horses

These 2026 World Cup dark horses will be expected to pull off upsets in the knockout rounds, possibly defying the odds to reach the quarterfinals or semifinals.

Ecuador (+10000 to win World Cup, +400 to win Group E)

Teams going up against Ecuador are in for a defensive battle. While the South American side doesn’t have the attacking star power of Argentina and Brazil, Ecuador has developed into a defensive fortress. Defensive midfielder Moises Caicedo is the leader of a team that emerged from fierce CONMEBOL qualifiers with a defensive record of five goals conceded in 16 games. That defence is going to be relied on heavily in a group headlined by shell-shocked Germany. 

Colombia (+5000 to win World Cup, +275 to win Group K)

Colombia finished right behind Ecuador in qualifying, but employed the opposite approach to punch its ticket to the World Cup. Led by Luis Diaz, Colombia beat opponents into submission with an attacking fluidity that proved difficult for most teams to contain. There are uncertainties over defence and the team’s ability to play at altitude in Mexico, but Colombia should progress to the knockout rounds, where it’ll be one of the main teams that top countries will want to avoid.

Senegal (+10000 to win World Cup, +800 to win Group I)

Morocco made all the headlines in 2022 after becoming the first African nation to reach the World Cup semifinals. But Senegal is arguably the best team from the continent heading into the 2026 World Cup. The team is loaded with a wealth of experience and talent that will make The Lions of Teranga one of the most underrated FIFA teams at the 2026 World Cup.

Morocco (+5000 to win World Cup, +600 to win Group C)

Odds are that Morocco won’t be nearly as successful as 2022. But the Atlas Lions are still capable of upsetting favourites, just like Morocco did four years ago with wins over Spain and Portugal in the knockout rounds. Coming off a controversial Africa Cup of Nations triumph, in which Senegal was stripped of the title retroactively, Morocco comes into the 2026 World Cup eager to prove it belongs in the same realm as World Cup favourites.

Norway (+2500 to win World Cup, +275 to win Group I)

Anything is possible when Erling Haaland takes the pitch. The Manchester City striker is in a class of his own after dominating the Premier League and Champions League with statistics normally reserved for video games. His presence alone is enough to strike fear into opponents, but Norway is more than just a one-man team. Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard is a leader whose vision and creative spark could also help Norway enjoy an unexpectedly long World Cup campaign as a premium World Cup 2026 dark horse.

Tier 2: Giant killers

This category is where the real fun begins. While most should make it out of the group stage, they likely won’t be given much of a chance against the world’s best teams in the later rounds.

Japan (+6600 to win World Cup, +350 to win Group F)

Japan is one solid World Cup performance away from breaking into the tier of World Cup dark horses. The structured Japanese side is still criminally underrated despite winning its group ahead of Spain and Germany in 2022. That will change if they can slay another giant or two in 2026.

South Korea (+50000 to win World Cup, +333 to win Group A)

A berth in the Round of 32 is entirely possible for a South Korea side that’s in a group without a legitimate World Cup contender. South Korea’s pace and tactical discipline will be a recipe for disaster for teams that underestimate the Asian side.

Switzerland (+4000 to win World Cup, -110 to win Group B)

Switzerland continues to be underrated despite being one of the most consistent teams from Europe. The team’s reputation dates back to 2006 when the Swiss finished atop a group with eventual World Cup finalist France. The team’s ability to frustrate world-class attacks will be vital to success.

United States (+5000 to win World Cup, +137 to win Group D)

The ingredients are there for the United States to succeed on home soil this summer. With Maurico Pochettino at the helm, the team has a world-class coach who’ll employ a fast-paced attacking philosophy geared toward surprising superior opponents. While the USMNT has developed a reputation as underachievers in recent years, it would be foolish to write the current squad off based on its lack of underdog charm.

Mexico (+8000 to win World Cup, +100 to win Group A)

Anything less than the Round of 16 will be a disappointment for a Mexico side desperate to impress home supporters. The World Cup co-host was handed a decent draw, so getting out of the group stage shouldn’t be a problem. A possible favourable matchup in the Round of 32 could lead to Mexico progressing as one of the teams that bigger nations won’t want to face in the Round of 16.

Tier 3: Banana peels

We’re not expecting much, but don’t write these teams off in the group stage – and possibly beyond. They’re the banana peels that threaten to topple bigger countries.

Scotland (+25000 to win World Cup, +1200 to win Group C)

Scotland will have a couple of opportunities to pull off upsets in the opening round of the World Cup in games against Morocco and Brazil. But that’s assuming Scotland doesn’t pull a Scotland and stumble out of the gate in its opener against Haiti. While not ideal for Scotland, it would be totally on brand for Steve Clarke’s men to drop points against the Caribbean minnow before busting the bracket with a win over, say, Brazil in a game where there’s nothing on the line for the British side.

Egypt (+30000 to win World Cup, +450 to win Group G)

Egypt is somewhat like Norway in that moments of individual brilliance from Mohamed Salah could result in a few surprise results. However, the ‘Egyptian King’ is in the twilight of his career, so his influence isn’t what it used to be. But the seven-time champions of Africa are still capable of upsetting bigger teams who assume that Egypt is still a one-man show.

Canada (+15000 to win World Cup, +250 to win Group B)

Italy’s defeat in the World Cup qualifying playoffs boosted Canada’s hopes of not only securing its first-ever World Cup points, but also doing what was once the unthinkable: progressing out of the group stage. While there isn’t a team in Canada’s group that will be massively favoured to beat the World Cup co-host, a berth in the Round of 32 could present a golden opportunity for a giant killing.

Honourable mentions:

Turkiye, Uruguay, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sweden, Croatia