Our three-leg Maple Leafs vs. Ducks SGP for today prices out at +575 at the time of writing and is eligible for a 30% same game parlay boost from our top-ranked NHL betting site, bet365.
While interest from the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ passionate fanbase for the remaining portion of the season is waning, Monday’s matchup versus the Anaheim Ducks will certainly get a little bit of added attention after Ducks captain Radko Gudas ended Auston Matthews’ season on March 12th with a knee that drew a five-game suspension.
Both teams have been horrible defensively of late, and this game could potentially get a little chaotic considering the perceived lack of response from the Maple Leafs towards Gudas after the dirty hit originally took place.
- Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-150 as a straight)
- William Nylander to Score (+325 as a straight)
- Cutter Gauthier Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-120 as a straight bet)
Nick’s Maple Leafs vs. Ducks SGP
Leg 1: Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-150 as a straight)
From the jump this season, the majority of our articles have been pretty hard on the Maple Leafs, as their process never really suggested they were anything but a well-below-average team. Their defensive play has been downright terrible, while their goaltending has also fallen off relative to last year. It’s not been common for us to back Toronto in any fashion, and it wouldn’t surprise me if this were the last time we do so this season.
It is a concern to me that the Maple Leafs may take a few penalties in attempting to settle the score for the hit that ended Matthews seen, but aside from that, this seems like a good spot to count on them keeping this game versus an overvalued Ducks side relatively competitive, especially given that it correlates with our second and third legs of the SGP.
Excluding the Ducks’ 8-0 record in the shootout (which for some reason NHL.com does not), Anaheim holds a -14 goal differential. If they had a .500 record in shootouts this season, they’d have won just one more game than they have lost. Since the Olympic break, Anaheim has held a 48.48% expected goal share while allowing 4.35 xGA/60.
On top of the fact that Anaheim’s record is propped up by its incredible work in the shootout, it also benefits from playing out of the ultra-soft Pacific Division. The Ducks are 16-12-3 versus the East, while the Leafs are 14-10-4 versus the West.
The Leafs won the previous matchup between these sides, 6-4, and that’s not as shocking as it seems when you consider the factors that have led to the Ducks’ superior overall record this season.
The Leafs should bring a spirited effort into this matchup, and -150 is a good price for the Leafs to at least cover the puck-line versus a Ducks side whose greatest strength has been an NHL-leading record in one-goal matchups.
Leg 2: William Nylander to Score (+170 as a straight)
Backing Nylander to record over 2.5 shots on goal made the cut for Monday’s player props piece, but a price of +170 for him to score also looks to provide value and works well with our first leg backing Toronto +1.5 goals.
Nylander recorded a goal and an assist in the previous matchup versus Anaheim, and also had six attempts while generating 0.73 individual expected goals.
We aren’t huge believers in the predictive relevancy of previous head-to-head matchups on average, especially when looking at matchups dating back long periods of time, the Ducks do seem to be a notably good matchup for Nylander. They play a fairly wide-open style, do not defend the rush overly well, and allow a lot of space to opposing stars in the offensive zone.
It’s been a quieter stretch of play for Nylander, but he’s still generated 0.41 individual expected goals per game over the last nine matchups and is the most dynamic forward left on the team by a wide margin.
Anaheim’s penalty kill has succeeded on 78.7% of opportunities over the last 25 games, and Nylander could receive some extra opportunities to work on the man advantage in a matchup which will likely get quite chippy, yet also be called quite tightly with the NHL Department of Player Safety set to be present in person for this matchup.
Leg 3: Cutter Gauthier Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-120 as a straight)
Our third and final leg is surely the easiest to sell to the average bettor. No team in the NHL has allowed shots at a higher rate than the Leafs this season, and no skater in the NHL has attempted shots at a higher rate than Gauthier. Gauthier has attempted eight shots per game over the last six matchups, averaging four shots on goal per game in that span.
A competitive game-script where the Leafs lose by one or less would work well to keep Gauthier on the ice in situations where Anaheim is pressing for offence, while the potential for a greater than average amount of time spent on the power play would also help our final leg get home.
You can follow all of Nick’s hockey bets on the Action Network App!