The Columbus Blue Jackets and Montreal Canadiens will face off today in a very intriguing Eastern Conference showdown. Our three-leg Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens SGP prices out at +1200 at the time of writing and is eligible for a 30% same game parlay boost from our top-ranked NHL betting site, bet365.
The Blue Jackets have played to a record of 19-3-4 since appointing Rick Bowness as head coach and are now not only a safe bet to make the playoffs, but they may even end up with home-ice advantage in Round One of the playoffs. They have scored 3.62 goals per game during Bowness’s tenure as head coach, and have found success with a more aggressive forecheck.
The Canadiens have remained in strong form themselves down the stretch, as they hold a record of 11-6-3 over the last 20 games. They hold a record of 21-13-2 in front of the lively Bell Centre crowd this season, and have started their current homestand with impressive multi-goal wins over the New York Islanders and Carolina Hurricanes.
- Regulation Tie (+325 as a straight)
- Cole Caufield Anytime Goal Scorer (+145 as a straight bet)
- Zach Werenski Over 0.5 Points (-260 as a straight bet)
Nick’s Blue Jackets/Habs SGP
Leg 1: Regulation Tie (+325 as a straight)
Exactly 25.1% of games this season have required overtime, which continues to suggest as a general rule prices in the +325 range provide value. That mark is especially convincing when you consider that a decent share of games feature one heavily favoured team that was always likely to win in convincing fashion.
Ties have really run rampant among the more competitive teams in the Eastern Conference, which is a key reason the Wildcard seeds will likely finish with close to 100 points, and down the stretch we have seen a lot of matchups with playoff significance require the 3-on-3 session.
We’ve found success outlining games to require overtime this season, and this spot checks a lot of the boxes I look for when betting the tie at long odds.
The Blue Jackets have given themselves a legitimate chance to win every game of the Bowness era, with their only two multi-goal losses involving empty netters. We should see them find a way to keep this game tight despite playing as slight underdogs on the road, but the Canadiens have also been in strong form and it seems unlikely that they will go down easily in this spot.
We should see a well-contested matchup where neither team garners much separation on the scoreboard, and it feels like a good spot to expect this game to come down to the wire, keeping the tie in play at a very long price for the first leg of our Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens same game parlay.
Leg 2: Cole Caufield Anytime Goal Scorer (+145 as a straight bet)
As we outlined ahead of Tuesday’s matchup versus the Carolina Hurricanes, it continues to be surprising how little respect oddsmakers are giving to Caufield’s goal-scoring prowess. With Caufield still priced at +145 to score in Thursday’s matchup, 10 different goal scorers are considered more likely to find the back of the net on Thursday based on the current betting odds.
But as we have broken down seemingly game-after-game dating back to January 15th, considering how elite of a shooter Caufield is and the amount of threatening scoring chances he is generating on a nightly basis, his incredible recent production continues to appear sustainable enough to make prices in this range quite valuable.
Caufield has scored 23 goals over the last 22 games. He’s scored on 30.3% of shots taken in that span and is obviously due for regression in that regard. Still, he’s averaged 0.52 individual expected goals over the last 12 games, which suggests even a dead average goal scorer would be scoring often enough to make a price of +145 acceptable.
The Blue Jackets have been better defensively under Bowness, but they are still playing a high-event style and are most dominant from an offensive perspective. My expectation is that if the tie gets home, it’s with either a 2-2 or 3-3 scoreline, and backing Caufield to score looks to be a worthy second leg for our Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens same game parlay.
Leg 3: Zach Werenski Over 0.5 Points (-260 as a straight bet)
This is the only leg of the three that I will not be betting personally as a straight bet, but it does seem to be a safe third option based on the game script that we are targeting, and it unlocks the 30% same-game parlay boost, and also pushes the price from +900 to +1200. Therefore, in a game where we will likely need Columbus to score a bare minimum of two goals, it seems to be worth adding on.
On January 30th, we outlined why Werenski appeared to be a good bet to win the Norris Trophy at +175, and as a result, we’ve obviously been keen to keep a close eye on his form. Obviously, that take worked out to be one of the good ones, as he’s put up 20 points over the last 16 games, and is now a heavy favourite to win the Norris.
Werenski has been held pointless just four times over the last 37 games. One knock on his Norris case is that he’s not handling much of a shutdown role to other guys in the race, but when we are honing in on strictly his production, that is a good thing. He remains one of the best power play quarterbacks in the league, and is excellent at jumping up in the rush, which is one area to expose the Canadiens.
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