In this article, Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin breaks down two NHL player prop picks that provide value at online sportsbooks on March 20.
After recording a slight loss with a split on Thursday, these player prop guides enter Friday’s slate at +16.15 units across 151 selections this season, a mark that is competitive with the majority of writers actually taking the time to transparently track their results. Betting is highly volatile, and I’ll always try my best to detail bets that hold a legitimate edge, while also noting gambling is volatile and to bet responsibly. On those fronts, it’s been a successful season, and I’m thankful for all of our regular readers.
Check out my best NHL player prop bets for March 20 below and tail my picks at any of the top NHL betting sites in Canada.
Cale Makar Over 1.5 Points: +195
Makar over 1.5 points
Friday’s matchup versus the Chicago Blackhawks sets up as a smash spot to buy low on Makar following a tougher patch in the schedule, in which Colorado as a whole has struggled to produce at its normal rate.
The Avalanche suffered a 2-1 loss on Wednesday versus the Dallas Stars in a game that was always expected to have a playoff feel. I watched the game wire-to-wire intently, hoping our same-game parlay would get home at +525. We were certainly lucky that it did, because the Avalanche, and Makar in particular, easily could have had a more productive evening.
Makar registered the Avs’ only goal, had four shots, and was driving offensive play effectively all night long. He was named the second star of the game and graded out as the second most impactful Avalanche skater offensively per hockeystatcards.com.
Colorado was blown out in its previous matchup versus the Pittsburgh Penguins, and suffered a frustrating 3-1 loss in Winnipeg last Saturday in a game where Connor Hellebuyck was brilliant and Makar once again held excellent underlying numbers offensively. Makar has registered one point in each of those games, which all played out as natural spots for him to have less productive evenings.
Friday’s matchup versus the Chicago Blackhawks offers a smash spot for Makar and the Avalanche to get right, and I don’t think we will see the Avs’ top skaters take this game lightly, with the possibility of losing the Central Division growing much more realistic.
Chicago earned a 2-1 win over the Minnesota Wild on Thursday, but Spencer Knight had an excellent showing, and the Wild hit three posts in the third period alone. That performance did not change my perspective that Colorado will have a strong offensive showing Friday.
The Blackhawks hold a 43.24% expected goal share over the last 10 matchups and have allowed 3.29 xGA/60. They have not been horrible defensively of late, but this is obviously a tough spot, and the gap between Knight and backup Arvid Soderblom has been gigantic this season.
Soderblom holds an .876 save percentage and a -6.1 GSAx across 20 appearances this season.
Zach Werenski is pulling away in the Norris Trophy race, something we are personally happy to see, while the Stars have pulled to within two points in the division race. My guess is we see both of those narratives put on hold Friday and expect Makar and the Avalanche to author a convincing showing. At +195, believe we are getting a great number to back Makar recording two points.
Leo Carlsson/Troy Terry 1+ Point Each: +150
Carlsson/Terry points parlay
Being forced to miss the Olympics due to injury was surely very frustrating for Leo Carlsson, but it did provide him with an opportunity to get himself fully healthy for an important finish to the season. He’s registered a team-high 12 points in 12 games since the restart and is looking more like the skater we saw in the first third of the season.
Troy Terry returned to the lineup Sunday in Montreal, which has aided his running mate Carlsson’s recent production. Over the last two games they have combined for eight points, and all of those points have come from goals where they both recorded a point at the same time. This play is currently fully correlated, with both skaters playing on the top line and top power play.
The Utah Mammoth are a high-quality offensive side, and this is a more difficult than average spot for Carlsson and Terry to produce. But Utah did play last night in Vegas and started number-one netminder Karel Vejmelka. Vitek Vanecek is a solid backup with a +0.7 GSAx and .890 save percentage across 17 appearances, but this still appears to be a livable spot to back this red-hot duo to each produce a point at +150.
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