Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Monday’s 10-game slate.
After some strong results last week, these NHL betting guides are now up 14.27 units across 107 selections this season. I’d love to keep rolling in the final four slates prior to the Olympic break, and Monday’s heavy card offers up some intriguing options, and I’m excited to outline my two favourite plays below.
Tim Stutzle/Drake Batherson 1+ Point Each: +115
Stutzle/Batherson points parlay
The Ottawa Senators aren’t quite dead just yet and will play a massive game Monday night versus the Pittsburgh Penguins. Though gaining ground in the ultra-competitive Eastern Conference playoff race is not easy, the Senators are 6-2-2 over the last 10 games, and got a massive boost Saturday as Linus Ullmark returned with a strong showing.
In a game featuring a total of 6.5 where Ottawa is just a slight betting underdog, it seems to be a good spot to target the Stutzle/Batherson stack, given that the two have looked quite threatening over the last pair of matchups while combining for six points.
As we touched on in Thursday’s same game parlay piece on the Senators’ matchup versus the Colorado Avalanche, oddsmakers continue to seem reluctant to respect that Batherson’s level of production this season is sustainable. He’s recorded at least one point in 60.8% of games played this season, ranking second on the team with 46 points in 51 games.
Considering Batherson’s current usage and offensive skillset, I’m not seeing how he is still priced at -120 to record a point in a matchup that is expected to be fairly high-scoring. Ottawa’s current top line of Batherson, Stutzle and Claude Giroux holds a 67.4% expected goal share across 53.3 minutes of play while generating 3.26 xGF/60.
Stutzle has looked extremely dynamic of late, putting up eight points over the last six games, and Batherson’s production has certainly been aided in playing on his wing at even strength. The two also skate together on the Senators’ top power-play unit, which has succeeded on 25% of opportunities over the last 10 games.
At +115, we seem to be getting a good price to back Stutzle and Batherson each recording a point in what should be an exciting, high-event matchup Monday.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson Over 0.5 Power Play Points: +575
Oliver Ekman-Larsson over 0.5 PPP
The Toronto Maple Leafs‘ power play has succeeded on 28.2% of opportunities over the last 19 games. Steve Sullivan has made some schematic adjustments since overtaking the role as power play coach previously held by Marc Savard, and those adjustments have led to plenty of success.
Having William Nylander back in the lineup should only help the top unit’s effectiveness, as he’s obviously proven to be an ultra-threatening shooter and playmaker on the power play, and is also quite useful in generating controlled zone entries, an area where the majority of top power-play units struggle on off nights.
Morgan Rielly is listed as day-to-day after suffering an upper-body injury in the Leafs’ matchup versus the Vancouver Canucks on Saturday. I’m keeping my eyes out for any information regarding Rielly’s status following Monday’s morning skate, but if he is to be sidelined, this play projects to hold a ton of value as Ekman-Larsson should overtake his role quarterbacking the top unit.
And for as effective as the top unit has been recently, I’m not sold that Rielly is all that important or a major reason for the unit’s success. While Rielly is a reliable passer at the top of the setup, he rarely threatens a shot and often makes reads fairly easy for opposing penalty-killers as a result.
Ekman-Larsson has shown strong offensive upside this season. He did receive some opportunities to quarterback the top unit earlier on in the year, but that was back when the unit was still being run by Marc Savard, and offering the same stagnant looks that the majority of the league was handling with ease.
Based on my belief that the top unit will continue to be highly effective if Rielly is to be sidelined, at +575, I believe we are getting a good price to take a stab on Ekman-Larsson recording a power-play point in Monday’s matchup.
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